There is no housing crisis — it’s a false narrative.
Shortages are a temporary problem created by artificial monetary policy not witnessed in centuries.
When the cheap money punch bowl is taken away, demand will collapse.
Oversupply will remain — the mortal enemy of price.
Shortages are a temporary problem created by artificial monetary policy not witnessed in centuries.
When the cheap money punch bowl is taken away, demand will collapse.
Oversupply will remain — the mortal enemy of price.
Such false narratives are common near the peak of every great price run-up and bubble throughout history.
Don’t look for real estate specialists to justify fundamentals. They often suffer from a confirmation bias & availability bias within their echo chamber.
Don’t look for real estate specialists to justify fundamentals. They often suffer from a confirmation bias & availability bias within their echo chamber.
When opposite evidence is presented — often by outsiders who aren’t part of the tribe — is swiftly rejected.
Semmelweis reflex is a metaphor for a reflex-like tendency to reject new evidence, knowledge, or well thought out opinions because it contradicts established norms.
Semmelweis reflex is a metaphor for a reflex-like tendency to reject new evidence, knowledge, or well thought out opinions because it contradicts established norms.
Inversion can help here, in my opinion.
In 2012, when real estate was dirt cheap & everyone was negative — instead of believing the consensus narrative: “real estate will struggle for years!”
Inverting the question worked better: “why will real estate not continue to struggle?”
In 2012, when real estate was dirt cheap & everyone was negative — instead of believing the consensus narrative: “real estate will struggle for years!”
Inverting the question worked better: “why will real estate not continue to struggle?”
Listing out 30+ points would have opened your mindset to a completely different perspective.
Likewise, today as real estate is ridiculously overpriced & everyone is positive — instead of believing the consensus: “real estate will continue to boom!”
Invert. Always invert.
Likewise, today as real estate is ridiculously overpriced & everyone is positive — instead of believing the consensus: “real estate will continue to boom!”
Invert. Always invert.
Just for the record, we are a RE development family, so it is far easier to suffer from:
• confirmation bias (looking at new data to confirm our prevailing beliefs)
• availability bias (aka filter bubble, reading info readily available in the echo chamber + RE tribe)
• confirmation bias (looking at new data to confirm our prevailing beliefs)
• availability bias (aka filter bubble, reading info readily available in the echo chamber + RE tribe)
• Semmelweis reflex (already discussed above)
• belief perseverance (typical bias plaguing specialists, who maintain beliefs despite new information contradicting it)
To us, everything about investing is being wrong less (unforced errors), and not attempting to be right more.
• belief perseverance (typical bias plaguing specialists, who maintain beliefs despite new information contradicting it)
To us, everything about investing is being wrong less (unforced errors), and not attempting to be right more.
Don't ask industry brokers, developers, fund managers & GPs if it is the right time to invest in real estate.
Maslow’s hammer states to a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
Funnily enough, they always say yes — but hesitated during a crisis (e.g. 2009-12 period).
Maslow’s hammer states to a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
Funnily enough, they always say yes — but hesitated during a crisis (e.g. 2009-12 period).
p.s. 9 and a half out of 10 "real estate pros" will disagree with the tweet thread above.
It has to be like that. Grand booms always peak with euphoria.
Sir John Templeton famously said bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, and die on euphoria.
It has to be like that. Grand booms always peak with euphoria.
Sir John Templeton famously said bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, and die on euphoria.
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