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Jan 18 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
New pod on the future of movie theaters, ESPN, Disney, Apple TV+, Netflix, and more with @RichLightShed

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…

Feat.

- Is this it for movie theaters?
- Why ESPN might be a bad long-term fit for Disney
- Why Apple TV+ is poised for a breakout year
@RichLightShed .@RichLightShed: By building a subscriber base twice as large as the biggest films of all time, Netflix isn’t just disrupting movie theaters—it’s changing what stars and audiences consider “movies” in the first place
@RichLightShed In which @RichLightShed proposes a queasy question about ESPN and all of sports TV:

If renting rights and steaming sports is such a slam-dunk deal, how come Netflix—the company with the most users and the best data— is (so far) mostly staying out of the game?
My outlook on move theaters is: They’ll keep changing—higher prices, bigger screens, better sound, softer chairs—not die.

Adaptation in the face of tech change is the history of theaters. Just look at this graph. TV should have killed them; instead it just changed them.

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More from @DKThomp

Derek Thompson Profile picture
Jan 14
How Did (Almost) Everybody Get Inflation So Wrong?

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pla…

- Biden admin: wrong
- Most economists: wrong
- Investors: wrong
- Bank analysts: wrong
- Biden critics: wrong (missed the boom)
- Bitcoin bros: wrong (beat by equities post-3/21)

Everybody was wrong!
In today's ep, @awealthofcs and @michaelbatnick join to talk about why '21 boomflation—a roaring economy plus 40-yr high price growth—was the story ~nobody saw coming.

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/eve…

Most inflation-watchers missed the boom; most boom-predictors whiffed on inflation.
Today's ep is partly inspired by @jasonfurman, who (along with @ModeledBehavior) not only got 2021 about as right as anybody I spoke too, but also has written cogently about how and why just about everybody missed the dynamics underlying inflation

Read 4 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
Jan 12
This is one of the most important articles I'll write all year—and the most complete framework for how I'm thinking about progress, public policy, and a better future for all Americans:

America needs an "abundance agenda"

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Think about how often scarcity has been the story of the pandemic:

- First, we were told to not wear masks, bc there weren't enough.
- Then we were told to not get booster shots, bc there weren't enough.
- Now some ppl are worried about hoarding tests, bc there aren't enough.
Now think about how supply side snafus have also become a major storyline in the economy

- We didn't invest in port technology, and now we have a supply bottleneck at the ports
- We watched legal immigration collapse for years, and now we have a labor shortage
Read 7 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
Jan 11
NEW POD: The world of Omicron facts with data wizard @jburnmurdoch

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/omi…

Four big ideas from the global evidence:
1. It's milder (different than "mild").
2. It's fast.
3. It's a big problem for the unvaccinated + hospital systems.
4. It's worse in the US.
1. It's milder (different than "mild")

The virus's upper-respiratory replication combined with immunity from vaccines and natural infection seem to be responsible for the global evidence of a divergence between case growth and deaths.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
2. It's fast.

In Gauteng, Omicron wave trough-to-peak was about 3x faster than Delta. In London, NY, and DC, case growth is peaking much faster than previous waves.

As @jburnmurdoch says: Hard to be certain how much of this is the virus vs behavior shifts.
Read 6 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
Jan 10
Vaccinated America has for months been splintering into two big camps: "We still need widespread COVID precautions" vs. "We just need to move on."

Omicron has deepened that divide.

So I wrote about the rise of the "Vaxxed and Done."

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
This is my best effort at summarizing the views of the "Vaxxed and Done."

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
This is my best effort at summarizing the opposition to the "Vaxxed and Done" philosophy.
Read 5 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
Jan 9
An argument I see a lot on here: ~Web3's problems are the same ones email and mobile Internet had, which means Web3 *is* the next mobile Internet!~

No. Just bc two things share the same failures doesn't mean they'll follow the same success path.

It's "analogy by failure."
"Analogy by failure" in Web3 debates doesn't prove Web3 will fail. It doesn't prove anything. It's just a fallacy.

If I tape dung to a cup and say it's a radio, that's a failure too. I can say "you idiots, email also failed once" but that doesn't change that it's cup-dung.
It's really the proving too much fallacy, but I've found pitiful engagement on citations of PTM, and I think we should just rename it for the Internet something more intuitive, since "My thing is failing in all most auspicious ways" is the way this argument typically appears.
Read 4 tweets
Derek Thompson Profile picture
Jan 7
What's the most incredible, statistical-outlier accomplishment in U.S. major sports history?
My two nominations:

1) Wilt Chamberlain's 1961-2 season.

He averaged 50 points/game and 40 shots. Those aren't just records. They're both THIRTY PERCENT HIGHER than the all-time no. 2! (via @billbarnwell)
2) Wayne Gretzky has 700 more career assists (or 57% more) than the no. 2 assists leader. What!?

records.nhl.com/records/skater…

For reference: That would be like home-run leader Barry Bonds finishing his career with 1,200 HRs. He has 762.
Read 7 tweets

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