Thread by @GrayConnolly

Not one to reflexively defend Joe Biden but he is right to try and ratchet down tensions with the Russians over Ukraine. It is January, the Russians are in a (very) good position to drive (all) over Ukraine & few local NATO members want a war over it. Some refreshing realism.

Am no Biden apologist BUT I am intrigued by the idea that the US esp would want to be poking the Russian Bear right now (in the Russian winter) over Ukraine when *the Germans* were seemingly denying airspace to British ammunitioning and support flights

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1483222704618680325

The Ukrainian problem is only going to be solved by diplomacy and those who would never renounce the Monroe Doctrine for the US also realising that the Russians (who were a mature empire when America was rebellious colonials) claim a sphere of influence of their own

On its strict political merits, I have limited sympathy for Biden, personally, as he was one of those 1990s era Americans who thought tossing security blank cheques along the Russian periphery was wise .... George Kennan etal warned against doing this & what it would provoke

Was meant to do a Russia/Ukraine & War thread ... If Russian does drive on, Ukraine's battle becomes a magnet for every anti-Russian group & so the EU will have a hot War in which ISIL, Ingushis, Dagestanis, Chechens, Uzbeks etal will all come to S-E Europe & likely never leave

Upshot of any Russian War over Ukraine is not just Russia annexing eastern UKR where Russian populations are in a hot war (ivo major air corridors) but - much worse in many ways - a catastrophic refugee/illegal migration problem for the EU. No one discusses this obvious result

Realistically, the average Eurocrat in Brussels (EU or NATO) is more afraid of the EU being swamped by a new tide of 'refugee' flows (during Covid & a severe winter) as a result of the Russians moving into eastern Ukraine than they are of Russian annexing half of Ukraine.

"Clean up on Aisle Incursion"

To recap re Ukraine:
- British (NATO not EU) & Canadians (in NATO but not Europe) are giving UKR military aid
- German political class is Russian Energy's HR dept & Germany (in NATO & EU) not allowing UK/CAN flights to UKR over their airspace
- French are DIYing it
- Biden ...?

The Ukrainians are not stupid, follow US politics closely, like the Chinese & Russians will bribe/buy/rent influential US politicos & apparatchiks (cf Hunter Biden), and any illusions the Ukrainians had ended well before any Afghan bodies fell out of a C17 wheelhouse etc.

People upset with me on this thread need to accept that if Putin was deposed tomorrow & replaced by the Tsar or Navalny, Russia would have the same geopolitical ambitions … your best hope is clear agreements on spheres of influence & not some idiotic colour revolution …