Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Jan 20, 2022 11 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1) There are signs daily #COVID deaths may be starting to subside in the U.S. Unfortunately, that doesn't appear to be the case in Canada. And within Canada, it’s Quebec that's likely driving up the country’s wave of #pandemic deaths. In this thread, I will examine these trends.
2) The chart below by the Washington Post shows clearly that the latest seven-day average of #COVID deaths in Canada is still rising, with the latest rate being 0.32 deaths per 100,000 population or 3.2 per million inhabitants. Please see below.
3) In contrast, the U.S. seven-day rolling average of #COVID deaths may have peaked. To gain a better idea of this trend in the United States, it makes sense to look at the chart below compiled by Our World in Data. That international chart shows the U.S. drop more clearly.
4) Internationally, deaths are rising again in Italy but dropping in Germany. In contrast, #COVID mortality upticks are being observed in the United Kingdom, France and Canada. Again, please consult the chart below.
5) Each jurisdiction around the world records COVID deaths differently. What’s important to note is whether #COVID19 mortality waves are surging, cresting, or dipping. And regardless of how deaths are being compiled around the world, sadly, Quebec’s COVID deaths are accelerating.
6) In its wisdom, the Institut nationale de santé publique has decided to compare #COVID deaths in Quebec with those of other provinces in Canada as well as among a group of industrialized nations around the world, despite the differences in methodologies among jurisdictions.
7) The chart below by the INSPQ shows that Quebec is continuing to pull ahead of other industrialized nations. For example, Quebec’s seven-day average of #COVID deaths yesterday was 6.6 per million population. Today, it’s 7 per million Quebecers.
8) Again — all things being equal insofar as each jurisdiction has not changed the way it calculates deaths in the past few weeks — Quebec’s seven-day average is accelerating faster than other countries and even other provinces. Please review the INSPQ chart below.
9) In my previous thread, I laid out some reasons why Quebec’s rate of deaths is accelerating faster than other provinces. I'm not focusing on deaths out of some gratuitous morbid fascination, but because deaths are seen as the best indicator of the progression of the #pandemic.
10) And I’m reporting on this swift rise of Quebec's #COVID deaths (including interviews on the ground) to call attention to the lack of resources in my home province to deal with this latest turn for the worse — no more, no less. End of thread. Please stay safe, everyone.
ADDENDUM: I forgot to add one last chart. What you will see below shows Quebec's #COVID deaths from Jan. 10 to Jan. 19 of this year, and how this cumulative increase compares with last year. This year's rise is noticeably bigger than for the corresponding period last year.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Mar 13
1) On Tuesday, the Quebec government unveiled its 2024-2025 budget, with the biggest expenditure to be made on health and social services. In this Twitter thread, I assess whether this "Health/Education Priorities" budget lives up to its hype, especially when it comes to seniors.
2) As you can see from the chart below, the lion's share of spending in the budget is for health and social services, pegged at $61.9 billion — up by 4.17% from the year before. In contrast, spending on education — so vital to Quebec's future — will rise 9.35% to $22.3 billion. Image
3) But as far as health and social services is concerned, Tuesday's budget may be indulging in a bit of spin. The chart below states that Quebec will spend an extra $3.7 billion over the next five years to "support a humane and effective organization of health care." Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 5
1) "The pandemic is far from over," one of the preeminent experts on #COVID19, Dr. Eric Topol, declared today, Jan. 4, 2024 — three years after the world first learned of a novel virus that was killing people in China. In this thread, I take stock of what's going on in Quebec.
2) "The pandemic is far from over, as evidenced by the rapid rise to global dominance of the JN.1 variant of SARS-CoV-2," Topol noted in a Los Angeles Times op-ed. In Quebec, nearly one in two genetic samples collected was from JN.1 as of two weeks ago. It's likely higher now. Image
3) "Clearly this virus variant, with its plethora of new mutations, has continued its evolution ... for infecting or reinfecting us," Topol added. Although the updated booster is considered 60% protective against hospitalization, only 17% of the Quebec population has taken it.
Read 10 tweets
Dec 17, 2023
1) BREAKING: By every major indicator, Quebec's health-care system is now arguably the worst it's ever been. Please click on my story below on Quebec wait lists for cancer and other surgery setting record highs — again. via @mtlgazettemontrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) Although Quebec has made it a priority to tackle wait lists for cancer surgery, more than 4,400 oncology patients are still waiting for their operations. More than 600 are waiting longer than the medically acceptable delay of 57 days, potentially putting their health at risk. Image
3) Even the wait list for so-called non-urgent surgery has now swelled to nearly 164,000 people. Almost 14,000 Quebecers today have been waiting more than a year for their surgery. At a year's wait, a non-urgent surgery starts to become urgent. Image
Read 14 tweets
Dec 6, 2023
1) BREAKING: Quebec, like other jurisdictions across North America, is now in the midst of a new #COVID19 resurgence — nearly 4 years into the #pandemic. In this thread, I will assess the implications of this latest wave of infections, likely driven by a new SARS-CoV-2 variant. Image
2) On Dec. 5, Quebec declared a total of 2,214 hospitalizations with and for #COVID. Please note this increase also reflects a change in the way Quebec's public health institute has been compiling such hospitalizations. But make no mistake: Quebec is still facing a resurgence. Image
3) The United States is also facing a #COVID hospitalizations resurgence, with 20,000 new admissions per week, according to preeminent expert @EricTopol. In the U.S., the JN.1 variant is becoming dominant, with wastewater levels surging with SARS-CoV-2. See Topol's tweet below. Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 13, 2023
1) BREAKING: Jewish-owned businesses in Montreal are being targeted and vandalized with antisemitic profanity. Please click below to read my report.
via @mtlgazettemontrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) "Last weekend, they put swastikas on the … menus downtown and they wrote FUCK THE JEWS," a Jewish business owner told me. I have also seen a list of Jewish businesses that is circulating, provoking not only boycotts but vandalism.
3) The Gazette has decided not to publish these disturbing images, as the Jewish business owners are fearful of reprisals.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 16, 2023
1) BREAKING: A month after Japan downgraded #COVID19 to the seasonal flu, the country is now beset with a 9th wave of infections. In this thread, I will explore the persistence of the #pandemic that everyone — especially politicians — wants to forget. Image
2) First, it's worth noting that the number of #COVID hospitalizations in the nation of 125 million rose to 4,330 from 4,122 a week before. The seven-day average for the number of patients in intensive care units was 79, according to the Japan Times.
3) It appears that XBB subtypes of the SARS-CoV-2 virus are driving the latest wave of infections in Japan. Meanwhile, China has recorded a more than five-fold surge in the number of people diagnosed with COVID in hospitals since April. China is also bracing for another wave. Image
Read 7 tweets

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