A quick thread about why I agree with Ron here. Lost in the minute-by-minute hysteria is the fact that 48 senators voted to reform the legislative filibuster. Putting that vote on the record was necessary, and marked a historic development in the 200+ year-long fight for reform.
Is it disappointing to come up 2 votes short? Yes. But this is the closest reformers have come in at least a century and certainly in the modern era. More importantly, the trajectory is clear. Dems have crossed the rubicon & grasp the need for reform in a way they didn't before.
The big question is, will Dems have the votes before Republicans have a trifecta and do it themselves? Only time will tell. In the Senate, Dems need to improve their electoral performance given the daunting map, and deny Republicans a trifecta in the meantime. Tough, but doable.
@jonathanchait makes a similar point. Election predictions are tricky, especially more than a cycle or two out. We have to win - there’s no replacement for that. When we do, we will make this long overdue change because something fundamental has shifted. nymag.com/intelligencer/…

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More from @AJentleson

Jan 19
This is profoundly disingenuous. From the founding until the 20th century, every vote on regular bills in the Senate was majority rule. Period. The Senate had plenty of ways to end debate, some of which required less than a majority- like the Chair cutting off a rambling senator.
The Framers were clear that they wanted the Senate to be a majority-rule body. Madison called majority rule “the republican principle” and argued vehemently against letting a minority block the majority. Hamilton called the idea of a minority blocking the majority a “poison.”
Don't take it from me. Take it from Martin Gold, former counsel to Howard Baker and author of a leading manual on Senate procedure: “The possibility that a minority of Senators could hold unlimited debate on a topic against the majority’s will was unknown to the first Senate.”
Read 4 tweets
Jan 17
Mods get their presidential candidates, VA gov candidate, and preferred agenda (ARP + BIF, no structural reforms) and yet we’re still swimming in takes about how it’s the left’s fault. It’d be nice to see mods held accountable for their choices, not just allowed to blame-shift.
McAuliffe’s loss was a great example of how punch-left narratives are accepted without evidence. The idea was that passing BIF earlier would’ve raised Biden’s approvals, carrying Terry to victory. It was a stretch, but it was gobbled up. Well here’s Biden’s approval trend.
Nationally, Democrats are following moderates’ agenda, passing BIF but not BBB nor voting rights nor structural reforms. Biden has been sinking - but is it moderates’ fault? Of course not! It never is. The key is to start from that conclusion, and reverse-engineer a reason.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 22, 2021
A path forward: give Manchin’s 1.8T bill a vote, with a short (~6 month) CTC extension included - a rounding error in a bill that big. Dems would be giving Manchin everything he wants, including time to negotiate a bipartisan CTC solution. In return… 1/ washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/1…
All Dems would be asking, in exchange for giving Manchin everything he wants, is to not let 10 million children slide into poverty while he pursues his bipartisan CTC negotiations. But of course it would be unwise for Dems to simply hope & pray those negotiations succeed. So… 2/
Dems can roll out a more narrowly focused FAMILIES Act, with a long-term extension of the CTC as its centerpiece. We know the CTC complies with reconciliation rules, and there are reconciliation vehicles available next year. This will backstop Manchin’s negotiations, and… 3/
Read 6 tweets
Dec 19, 2021
Everything Manchin cared about was in BIF. While the WH never had much leverage over Manchin, that’s all the more reason to cultivate what little leverage existed. Giving it all away, for free, up front was a strategic mistake. The day Biden endorsed BIF was the day he lost BBB.
The argument that they were linked was a valiant effort, but too clever by half. When the WH rushed to calm GOP outrage and issue a statement walking back Biden’s characterization of the bills as linked, it was a tell that when push came to shove, they would move BIF separately.
The most optimistic take is that Manchin’s comments leave the door open for breaking up BBB and moving some smaller bills. If so, the decision to do an omnibus was a mistake. Even in this “small bites” scenario, it’d be better to have the BIF substance available as sweeteners.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 17, 2021
People often ask me what Reid would have done differently. Hypotheticals are hard: would he have been able to get Manchin and Sinema? Idk. But on one thing I'm confident: the minute he realized the Dem agenda hinged on a 50/50 majority, he would have replaced the Parliamentarian.
You do it right away. With everything else going on, it's a half-day story at best. It's just a staff job. Easy call.
And the CBO director too.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 16, 2021
Leaders should do what is right for the causes they care about when they have the power to enact change. They should not reverse-engineer their agenda out of fear of what the other side might do - especially when the other side can do all of these bad things anyway, as they will.
Yes, this is the classic case. Rs used reconciliation to try to repeal the ACA and failed to get a majority. Doing things is hard, but undoing them is hard too. Expansions of rights and the social safety net have proven particularly hard to roll back.
Read 4 tweets

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