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Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
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Jan 20 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
"Why should parents have any right to know what is being taught?"

literally the argument here
Literally every parent is an educator.
And nobody ever lies!

(spoiler: there are lots of lies)

"Why are you expressing your free speech rights in low-cost environment where doing so is easy instead of hiring a babysitter and going to a long meeting? Are you too busy to be a citizen/parent?"
Little known fact:

If you don't go to every meeting, your parenting rights are revoked.

Few know this!
The attitude towards parents! "The act of whelping."

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More from @lymanstoneky

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Jan 21
What's so dumb about this is that the EXACT SAME AUTHORS of the paper reviewed here ALSO did a paper studying ONLY ADOPTIONS, and find that the negative effects on women are EXACTLY THE SAME.
Here's the paper. They ask "Does biology drive the motherhood penalty?" and they find the answer is "No, not at all." aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…
Adopted children hurt mothers' incomes just as much as gestational children.

What impacts mothers' career trajectory is child*rearing* more than child*bearing*, tho having a baby and putting up for adoption probably impacts as well.
Read 5 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Jan 21
Your quirky demographic history fact of the day:

here's the historic *marital completed fertility* for five well-documented Chinese lineages going back WAY before modern birth control.

Source: etheses.lse.ac.uk/4223/ Image
There's absolutely no way you get these numbers without having widespread *marital fertility control*.

Folks the Zhou, Zha, and Gu lines here are marital TFRs around 3 or 4. That's not that much higher than many modern post-contraceptive marital fertility rates!
Especially once you account for different child mortality. Probably if MCFR was 3.5, the share surviving to puberty would be just 2.5 or so, whereas today an MTFR of 2.5 yields surviving fertility of like 2.4 or 2.45, and we commonly see MTFR of 2-2.5 in western societies.
Read 19 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Jan 20
One of the big issues here is that we won't know if artificial wombs create developmental problems until like 40 years after they have begun to be used on a large scale.
Suppose there are 1,000 conditions we "care about" and the average condition impacts 1% of births in the real world and 5% in artificial wombs, and that there's no way to ID the condition while in the womb.
Suppose conditions manifest on average at age 20, normally distributed.
Read 13 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Jan 20
This blog post is really interesting.

Basically, they show that almost the *entire* relationship between "Christian Nationalism" and "support for extremist violence" is mediated through "belief in religious prophecy."
They use four questions to assess belief in prophecy, described here, and I only have any appreciable objection as an indicator to one of them, "God is in control," which also happens to be the most common belief, so probably the least strongly predictive. religioninpublic.blog/2022/01/20/the…
This is the key chart. On an index of expressed support for violent political activity, Christian Nationalism ONLY predicts support for violence IF you have high belief in prophecy. For low-prophecy-believers, More "Christian Nationalism" = LESS support for violence!
Read 15 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Jan 20
ahaha, it's gonna be funny if Russia is telling the boys they'll be home by Christmas.
i regret to inform you that it is unlikely that the wholesale conquest and pacification of ukraine will in fact be accomplished in three months
can the Russian army make it to Kyiv in 3 months?

Heck, they can make it to Kyiv in 3 days most likely!

Can they actually *hold the country* and pacify resistance in 3 months?

Seems far less likely.
Read 5 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
Jan 19
Apropos @elonmusk 's demography comments and an exchange with @ikashnitsky , it's interesting to ask, "Just how reliable are major global demographic databases?"

My view: not very!
This is not because the demographers at UNPD or IHME are doofuses or something; it's because producing big global forecasts is extremely difficult even when the data is all homogenous and reliable. But sorting through competing data sources that disagree is even harder!
Infamously, very smart demographers disagree about China's population to the tune of tens or hundreds of millions of people, and China's TFR is debated to be anywhere from 0.9 to 1.7 in recent years! Right there, that tells you global forecasts are gonna be dicey.
Read 27 tweets

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