PLC Profile picture
Jan 21 5 tweets 2 min read
With the advent of mass vaccination in Europe, why have more young adults died during the second half of 2021 than had died in 2020 (or 2017, 2018, 2019)?

Shouldn't the vaccines have caused a return to normal levels of mortality?
Why is young adult mortality in the euromomo region accelerating at the end the 2021 with nearly everyone in this age group fully vaccinated?
Contrast this to the very elderly, where excess mortality remains high, but is down significantly compared to 2020. Why are deaths falling amongst the very old but accelerating in young adults?
For the middle-aged, deaths in the second half of 2021 were ~ equal to the second half of 2020... was this what was promised by the vaccines? Nearly everyone in this age group was vaccinated. Why didn't it reduce mortality?
For children, 2020 and 2021 were the two safest years in Europe's history (most of these children are not vaccinated, many never worse masks in school, and schools never closed in several of the nations covered).

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More from @Humble_Analysis

Jan 21
Israel: first to vaccinate; first to panic and turn to boosters; when that didn't work, first to panic again and try 4th doses.

Now, once again, Israel has the highest rate of infection in the entire world. Image
With 80% of the eligible population fully vaccinated AND boosted (as well as the 10% most vulnerable double-boosted) critically ill covid patients are returning to the levels seen with Delta. Image
"Israeli researchers... admit that a COVID policy based almost entirely on shots is proving ineffective."

"Israel’s decision to administer a fourth dose was based on expert opinion and not robust data, because there was no robust data."

ijn.com/israel-fourth-…
Read 4 tweets
Jan 12
Isle of Man: 77% vaccinated, 55% boosted. Highest case rate in the world on January 10th. Image
Iceland: 77% fully vaccinated, 56% boosted. Image
Gibraltar: 100% full vaccinated, 81% boosted. 10th highest case rate in the world. Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 10
WA state (where I live) publishes cases & deaths by date of symptom onset, making accurate CFR trends possible.

For the elderly population, CFRs declined steadily in 2020 before stabilizing in early 2021 at ~7%.

Why didn't mass vaccination reduce CFR for the elderly in 2021?
The answer is not that fewer elderly people are dying: between August and November in WA there were 1376 deaths in 2020 but 2181 deaths in 2021.

In other words, there were 1.6X as many deaths in a highly vaccinated population.

Why didn't mass vaccination prevent death in 2021?
WA states does produce a report which claims that the death rate is 15X higher amongst the 18% of elderly who are unvaccinated.

Does this seem believable, given the raw data (produced by WA state) presented in the graphs above?

doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Docu…
Read 6 tweets
Jan 5
Japan, Korea, Cambodia are three of the most vaccinated nations on Earth (80% fully vax). Yet each has had their largest "wave" post-mass vaccination; more interestingly, there has been no "de-coupling" of cases & deaths evident in Asia.

Do vaccines not reduce severity in Asia?
More to the point - severity has always been so inconsequentially low in eastern Asia that vaccination was unnecessary in this region and likely redundant of immunity from prior exposure to similar viruses.
There are 560 million people living in this region of Asia, none of whom, apparently, ever faced a significant mortality risk from covid-19.

Do masks magically work in Asia but not Europe or America?
Read 7 tweets
Jan 4
Indonesia, the 4th largest country on Earth (278 million people), has recorded essentially zero cases & deaths for three straight months:
Cases in Indonesia disappeared at the end of September, despite continued high testing rates.

The share of tests returning positive fell to below 0.4% and has remained there for months.
Obviously, the disappearance of covid in Indonesia can no be credited to vaccination, since less than 6% of the population was vaccinated when cases peaked in mid-July (and we have numerous examples of high vax countries with skyrocketing cases).
Read 13 tweets
Dec 30, 2021
Israel: first to initiate mass vaccination & first to require boosters. Now, after 3-5 months, boosters are clearly failing to prevent infection/transmission, as well.

Israel is left with a choice: mandate a 4th dose or throw in the towel on mandatory vaccination.
With nearly all adults full vaccinated and the majority of adults boosted, Israel has seen a new seasonal wave begin with infections almost exclusively found amongst the vaccinated.

This is not what was promised one year ago when vaccines were approved.
In Israel, 70% of the population has been vaccinated, 64% fully vaccinated, but only 45% boosted.

This drop-off occurred despite the national vaccine passport mandating booster doses.

Why have 36% of those who initiated vaccination chosen not to get boosted?
Read 9 tweets

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