Israel: first to initiate mass vaccination & first to require boosters. Now, after 3-5 months, boosters are clearly failing to prevent infection/transmission, as well.

Israel is left with a choice: mandate a 4th dose or throw in the towel on mandatory vaccination.
With nearly all adults full vaccinated and the majority of adults boosted, Israel has seen a new seasonal wave begin with infections almost exclusively found amongst the vaccinated.

This is not what was promised one year ago when vaccines were approved.
In Israel, 70% of the population has been vaccinated, 64% fully vaccinated, but only 45% boosted.

This drop-off occurred despite the national vaccine passport mandating booster doses.

Why have 36% of those who initiated vaccination chosen not to get boosted?
Why have the boosted (45% of pop.) driven nearly all of the recent uptick in cases in Israel when the fully vaccinated but not boosted (20% of pop.) cases remain flat?

Could it be they chose not to get boosted because they already had covid and that infection confers immunity?
Israel initially planned on mandating a 4th dose (with no studies on efficacy or safety) but appears to have opted for mass infection, implicitly acknowledging that herd immunity can not be achieved with the available vaccines.

jpost.com/health-and-wel…
Israeli decision makers appear to be crediting Omicron with this change in strategy but isn't it more likely that the 3rd dose efficacy waned, just as the 2nd dose did (which prompted Israel's booster campaign to begin with)?

israeltoday.co.il/read/herd-immu…
In the end, everyone on Earth will be exposed to covid countless times. Essentially everyone will be infected, eventually.

It is long past time to shift the focus from suppression of transmission to prevention of morbidity and mortality.
Latest update: booster does efficacy does appear to be waning rapidly.

Is it worth the risk to get a never-ending stream of booster doses at shrinking intervals, just to delay your inevitable infection?

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More from @Humble_Analysis

21 Dec 21
Biden claims that the vast majority of covid deaths are unvaccinated.

The CDC claims that >95% of seniors are vaccinated.

The CDC also states than seniors account for >70% of all covid deaths.

The math just doesn't work.
CDC vaccination data: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
CDC Deaths by Age data: cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…
Read 4 tweets
17 Dec 21
Denmark now has the highest covid cases in the world (excluding microstates) despite having vaccinated 80% of the population and boosted 24%.

Remember when we were told vaccines were 100% effective against infection and that there would be no more waves once we go to 50% vax?
Remember back in September when Denmark declared victory and said with 80% vaccinated Covid there was no longer any need for social restrictions?

npr.org/2021/09/10/103…
Now, just a few months later, Denmark is closing schools, shutting down public accommodations - essentially locking down the economy once again.

msn.com/en-us/news/wor…
Read 6 tweets
17 Dec 21
South Africa: death rate among covid hospitalized down 66% in all age groups. Also, hospitalization rate down 91% (see next tweet).

Take together, CFR down >97% with Omicron in South Africa.
What could explain this trend in South Africa?

a. Omicron intrinsically mild
b. Mildness specific to southern Africa
c. High immunity from prior infection
d. Testing catching more mild infections
e. Seasonality (Summer)
Read 5 tweets
14 Dec 21
1 billion people live in central Africa and less than 5% have been fully vaccinated. Somehow, there have been fewer than 43K covid deaths reported in this region, total, since the beginning of the pandemic.

Has any modeler, PH official, or epidemiologist explained this?
The median age in this region is ~18 and obesity is low to moderate, so part of the answer is a lack of susceptible population.

But, based upon flu patterns, the covid pandemic lasted only a few months in this region - and the flu has been a larger concern for over a year.
Lack of testing doesn't explain this, either, as Rwanda has performed nearly as many tests per capital as Moldova, for instance, with 25 times fewer deaths.
Read 5 tweets
10 Dec 21
Southern Africa: detected cases continue to rise in this region but the rate of growth appears to be slowing. If current trends hold, cases will peak in South Africa some time in the next week. Image
Thus far, reported deaths remain extremely low in southern Africa, with the spike in Omicron cases not leading to any detectable increase in deaths.

This may be due to lag but so far trends indicate that Omicron will not likely driven significant mortality (in southern Africa). Image
This thread from South Africa shows that Omicron is not stressing the hospital system despite high case counts and low levels of restrictions (no lockdown, social distancing etc).

Read 7 tweets
9 Dec 21
During the past 4 weeks, 78% of reported Covid deaths in England were vaccinated.

Unvaccinated people under 50 account for less than 3% of covid deaths in England. In fact, people under 50 account for less than 5% of covid deaths, vaccinated or not.
Using CFR as a proxy for VE against death, it appears there is very strong efficacy for those aged 60-79 which moderates somewhat over 80.

However, people are not randomly assigned to the vax/no vax group and a CFR of 34% indicates that many unvax'd are seriously unwell.
Read 4 tweets

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