Israel: first to initiate mass vaccination & first to require boosters. Now, after 3-5 months, boosters are clearly failing to prevent infection/transmission, as well.
Israel is left with a choice: mandate a 4th dose or throw in the towel on mandatory vaccination.
With nearly all adults full vaccinated and the majority of adults boosted, Israel has seen a new seasonal wave begin with infections almost exclusively found amongst the vaccinated.
This is not what was promised one year ago when vaccines were approved.
In Israel, 70% of the population has been vaccinated, 64% fully vaccinated, but only 45% boosted.
This drop-off occurred despite the national vaccine passport mandating booster doses.
Why have 36% of those who initiated vaccination chosen not to get boosted?
Why have the boosted (45% of pop.) driven nearly all of the recent uptick in cases in Israel when the fully vaccinated but not boosted (20% of pop.) cases remain flat?
Could it be they chose not to get boosted because they already had covid and that infection confers immunity?
Israel initially planned on mandating a 4th dose (with no studies on efficacy or safety) but appears to have opted for mass infection, implicitly acknowledging that herd immunity can not be achieved with the available vaccines.
Israeli decision makers appear to be crediting Omicron with this change in strategy but isn't it more likely that the 3rd dose efficacy waned, just as the 2nd dose did (which prompted Israel's booster campaign to begin with)?
a. Omicron intrinsically mild
b. Mildness specific to southern Africa
c. High immunity from prior infection
d. Testing catching more mild infections
e. Seasonality (Summer)
1 billion people live in central Africa and less than 5% have been fully vaccinated. Somehow, there have been fewer than 43K covid deaths reported in this region, total, since the beginning of the pandemic.
Has any modeler, PH official, or epidemiologist explained this?
The median age in this region is ~18 and obesity is low to moderate, so part of the answer is a lack of susceptible population.
But, based upon flu patterns, the covid pandemic lasted only a few months in this region - and the flu has been a larger concern for over a year.
Lack of testing doesn't explain this, either, as Rwanda has performed nearly as many tests per capital as Moldova, for instance, with 25 times fewer deaths.
Southern Africa: detected cases continue to rise in this region but the rate of growth appears to be slowing. If current trends hold, cases will peak in South Africa some time in the next week.
Thus far, reported deaths remain extremely low in southern Africa, with the spike in Omicron cases not leading to any detectable increase in deaths.
This may be due to lag but so far trends indicate that Omicron will not likely driven significant mortality (in southern Africa).
This thread from South Africa shows that Omicron is not stressing the hospital system despite high case counts and low levels of restrictions (no lockdown, social distancing etc).
During the past 4 weeks, 78% of reported Covid deaths in England were vaccinated.
Unvaccinated people under 50 account for less than 3% of covid deaths in England. In fact, people under 50 account for less than 5% of covid deaths, vaccinated or not.