- the deep story of the voting rights bill
- a clinic on US filibuster history
- Biden polling exegesis
- negativity bias vs. agency bias in political media
Our discussion toward the end about news biases was one of the most interesting conversations I've had about political media in a while.
In short:
1. The press has a negativity bias (duh). 2. That's in part bc audiences have a negativity bias. 3. Media also has "agency bias."
News orgs can A/B test headlines with positive and negative frames. I've done it. It's clear that readers click more when the framing is negative. You can see this on Twitter, too.
Our (the media's) negativity bias both drives and reflects your (the audience's) negativity.
More subtly, political media has an agency bias. It's easier to cast lead characters in the story as heroes or failures—Is Joe Biden the next FDR? or has he Failed?—rather than recognize them as sea captains in a hurricane, with limited control over the orientation of the ship.
My conversation with @JamesFallows about Biden's polling swoon, media negativity, agency bias, and the president as hurricane captain starts around 27:30 here
As far as I know, only one team in professional sports history has finished 1st in offense, 1st in defense, and also missed the playoffs.
9. Bob Beamon's record-breaking long jump in the 1968 Olympics.
Hard to think of another sports achievement so outlierish that officials had to stop the game to figure out WTF just happened and the player, upon learning of the record, was so shocked that he suffered a seizure
- Is this it for movie theaters?
- Why ESPN might be a bad long-term fit for Disney
- Why Apple TV+ is poised for a breakout year
@RichLightShed .@RichLightShed: By building a subscriber base twice as large as the biggest films of all time, Netflix isn’t just disrupting movie theaters—it’s changing what stars and audiences consider “movies” in the first place
If renting rights and steaming sports is such a slam-dunk deal, how come Netflix—the company with the most users and the best data— is (so far) mostly staying out of the game?
- Biden admin: wrong
- Most economists: wrong
- Investors: wrong
- Bank analysts: wrong
- Biden critics: wrong (missed the boom)
- Bitcoin bros: wrong (beat by equities post-3/21)
Everybody was wrong!
In today's ep, @awealthofcs and @michaelbatnick join to talk about why '21 boomflation—a roaring economy plus 40-yr high price growth—was the story ~nobody saw coming.
Most inflation-watchers missed the boom; most boom-predictors whiffed on inflation.
Today's ep is partly inspired by @jasonfurman, who (along with @ModeledBehavior) not only got 2021 about as right as anybody I spoke too, but also has written cogently about how and why just about everybody missed the dynamics underlying inflation
This is one of the most important articles I'll write all year—and the most complete framework for how I'm thinking about progress, public policy, and a better future for all Americans:
Think about how often scarcity has been the story of the pandemic:
- First, we were told to not wear masks, bc there weren't enough.
- Then we were told to not get booster shots, bc there weren't enough.
- Now some ppl are worried about hoarding tests, bc there aren't enough.
Now think about how supply side snafus have also become a major storyline in the economy
- We didn't invest in port technology, and now we have a supply bottleneck at the ports
- We watched legal immigration collapse for years, and now we have a labor shortage