Derek Thompson Profile picture
Jan 20 7 tweets 4 min read
Abundance requires innovation.

Innovation begins with science.

But scientific funding in the U.S. is broken—it's too slow, risk-averse, and old.

I wrote about a surprising coalition of tech founders and star scientists who are trying to fix it.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
What's the problem with U.S. scientific funding?

There are 4.

1. The trust problem
2. The specialization problem
3. The silo problem
4. The experiment problem
1. The trust problem

Liberals say "trust science!" but our science-funding programs don't trust scientists. We wrap them in rules that restrains their most novel research.

A new solution: ARC's open-ended, no strings attached funding (via @SKonermann, @patrickc, & @pdhsu)
2. The specialization problem

Against the advice of 20th c scientists, the U.S. throws our experts into an arms race for scarce funding, taking up to 40% of their time. So, we train biologists to specialize in grant writing.

Solution: Fund people > projects.
There is also an age bias.

The avg age of 1st-time NIH grantees is 42 and rising, and scientists <35yo receive less than 5% of funding. But paradigm shifts in science (cf. Einstein) often come from young minds.

Solution: Fund more young visionaries @alexeyguzey
3. The silo problem

US science is too siloed—both bc researchers are too narrowly focused and bc peer-reviewed journals stymie collaboration.

Solution: Arcadia is a new open-science org focused on non-model organisms that are ignored by typical funding @seemaychou @PracheeAC
4. The experimentation problem

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

Scientific discovery is the bedrock of progress, but we don't really know how it works. We need better theories. That means better data. What gives you data? Experiments.

We need more scientific funding experiments!

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More from @DKThomp

Jan 21
Last week, I asked: What's the most incredible, statistical-outlier accomplishment in U.S. major sports history?

I got several thousand responses. Here are my top 10.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
10. The 2010 San Diego Chargers

As far as I know, only one team in professional sports history has finished 1st in offense, 1st in defense, and also missed the playoffs. Image
9. Bob Beamon's record-breaking long jump in the 1968 Olympics.

Hard to think of another sports achievement so outlierish that officials had to stop the game to figure out WTF just happened and the player, upon learning of the record, was so shocked that he suffered a seizure Image
Read 13 tweets
Jan 21
New pod: @JamesFallows joins the show to talk about the Democrats' very rough week

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/202…

- the deep story of the voting rights bill
- a clinic on US filibuster history
- Biden polling exegesis
- negativity bias vs. agency bias in political media
Our discussion toward the end about news biases was one of the most interesting conversations I've had about political media in a while.

In short:

1. The press has a negativity bias (duh).
2. That's in part bc audiences have a negativity bias.
3. Media also has "agency bias."
News orgs can A/B test headlines with positive and negative frames. I've done it. It's clear that readers click more when the framing is negative. You can see this on Twitter, too.

Our (the media's) negativity bias both drives and reflects your (the audience's) negativity.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 18
New pod on the future of movie theaters, ESPN, Disney, Apple TV+, Netflix, and more with @RichLightShed

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…

Feat.

- Is this it for movie theaters?
- Why ESPN might be a bad long-term fit for Disney
- Why Apple TV+ is poised for a breakout year
@RichLightShed .@RichLightShed: By building a subscriber base twice as large as the biggest films of all time, Netflix isn’t just disrupting movie theaters—it’s changing what stars and audiences consider “movies” in the first place
@RichLightShed In which @RichLightShed proposes a queasy question about ESPN and all of sports TV:

If renting rights and steaming sports is such a slam-dunk deal, how come Netflix—the company with the most users and the best data— is (so far) mostly staying out of the game?
Read 4 tweets
Jan 14
How Did (Almost) Everybody Get Inflation So Wrong?

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pla…

- Biden admin: wrong
- Most economists: wrong
- Investors: wrong
- Bank analysts: wrong
- Biden critics: wrong (missed the boom)
- Bitcoin bros: wrong (beat by equities post-3/21)

Everybody was wrong!
In today's ep, @awealthofcs and @michaelbatnick join to talk about why '21 boomflation—a roaring economy plus 40-yr high price growth—was the story ~nobody saw coming.

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/eve…

Most inflation-watchers missed the boom; most boom-predictors whiffed on inflation.
Today's ep is partly inspired by @jasonfurman, who (along with @ModeledBehavior) not only got 2021 about as right as anybody I spoke too, but also has written cogently about how and why just about everybody missed the dynamics underlying inflation

Read 4 tweets
Jan 12
This is one of the most important articles I'll write all year—and the most complete framework for how I'm thinking about progress, public policy, and a better future for all Americans:

America needs an "abundance agenda"

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Think about how often scarcity has been the story of the pandemic:

- First, we were told to not wear masks, bc there weren't enough.
- Then we were told to not get booster shots, bc there weren't enough.
- Now some ppl are worried about hoarding tests, bc there aren't enough.
Now think about how supply side snafus have also become a major storyline in the economy

- We didn't invest in port technology, and now we have a supply bottleneck at the ports
- We watched legal immigration collapse for years, and now we have a labor shortage
Read 7 tweets
Jan 11
NEW POD: The world of Omicron facts with data wizard @jburnmurdoch

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/omi…

Four big ideas from the global evidence:
1. It's milder (different than "mild").
2. It's fast.
3. It's a big problem for the unvaccinated + hospital systems.
4. It's worse in the US.
1. It's milder (different than "mild")

The virus's upper-respiratory replication combined with immunity from vaccines and natural infection seem to be responsible for the global evidence of a divergence between case growth and deaths.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
2. It's fast.

In Gauteng, Omicron wave trough-to-peak was about 3x faster than Delta. In London, NY, and DC, case growth is peaking much faster than previous waves.

As @jburnmurdoch says: Hard to be certain how much of this is the virus vs behavior shifts.
Read 6 tweets

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