Thread by @AVindman

US, NATO & Russia have not moved closer to a diplomatic solution. This Russian military buildup is unprecedented and even includes Belarus. A massive offensive is coming. How could this play out?
Read my full take w/ @DomCruzBus:
foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukrai…
1/

There are many possible scenarios. Something short of an offensive might include recognition or annexation of the occupied Donbas. In a limited operation, Russia could seize more of the Donbas & major cities like Mariupol or Odessa, and establish a “land bridge” to Crimea. 2/

But these options would be unlikely to force diplomatic capitulation. They would entail costly urban warfare & long-term occupation of Ukr w/ insurgency. The Kremlin wouldn’t regain influence or control over Ukr domestic & foreign policy, and Ukr wouldn’t become a failed state.3/

A likely scenario is combined land, air, and sea power striking from all axes of attack. Long-range fire capabilities would target decision-making organs, critical infrastructure, and morale targets. Rus troops in Belarus would threaten Kyiv and hasten capitulation. 4/

Rather than occupation or establishing a puppet state, the goal would be punitive strikes to annihilate Ukr military capabilities & paralyze the government, then withdraw upon favorable settlement or sufficient punishment. Ukraine & West would have to pick up the pieces. 5/

What can the US do? Deliver on the unprecedented consequences that the Biden administration has promised. Rally bipartisan support for @SenatorMenendez Defending Ukrainian Sovereignty Act. Add new measures to target the wealth of Putin’s circle of kleptocrats. 6/

Continue expediting US-made arms transfers from allies. Join the UK, publicly airlift military equipment to Ukraine. Consider advanced capabilities which could still have initial operational capability. Provide real-time intelligence to Ukraine. Support a potential insurgency. 7/

Deploy additional EFPs along the eastern flank to reassure NATO allies. Engage w/ Sweden and Finland. Prepare to open humanitarian corridors to accommodate refugee flows from an expanded conflict. Plan on burden sharing to assist asylum seekers in US, UK, and EU. 8/

US must still be careful to avoid a bilateral military confrontation with Russia, but the Kremlin’s attempts to dismantle European security and roll back international treaties & agreements cannot go unpunished. 9/

Bottom line: There's still more to do to at least try to preempt another major theater war in Europe. Even if there are doubts about the offensive, given the seismic geopolitical shockwaves of war, prudence dictate more action to prevent, prepare, & respond to RUS aggression. 10/