I have high conviction that 10 Y Ts will make new price HIGHs before commencing a decades long bear. I think it will record yield lows despite irrefutable evidence of worrisome inflation. Why? Because I believe in the power of paradox
What do you believe in? And don’t you think its a little conceited to think that markets should travel in YOUR direction? That they should always be rational. You got any evidence for that?
No 20h fast or avocados today. I’m having lunch on the beach with an investment legend…a money maker…a rare mind and a great guy
I’m not having lunch with Ken Fischer. I tell the tale of emailing him in this week’s podcast. He wrote a great stock valuation book conceived around the metric of price-to-sales. It’s not too heavy and i would recommend it for anyone pursuing a career in stock research.
It was the only language I spoke back then as a long-only guy. I sent Ken my analysis on Vodafone back in 1998. The bugger couldn’t have been more disagreeable. Finance is surprisingly open and the greats always find time to send a small note of best wishes. Not Ken.
Ken’s an ass…No surprise that when you emit bad karma out to the wider world it has a habit of biting you in the ass. Inshallah, brothers…funny how the tweet corrector fights that word?
Hey, before i forget, I know you hate IG but come over and follow me for a daily spoon of absurdity. As my new bestie says, « these abstract/existential philosophical mkt insights are like listening to Soros playing lead guitar for the Stones… »
This week @writes_sweeney and I kick back. Inspired by Jeff Bezos, and his recent jaunt to St Barts, I reveal my 20h fast and avocado regime. To me, longevity and contrarian investing are bedfellows. Chris shakes his head in disbelief. But discipline, do you have the discipline
Chris has his runner's legs on and wants to know more about what's knocking the cap mkts this week. Bonds, not James, but the ongoing disturbance in the US Treasury market are discussed. Better construct an inventory of ideas than trade against the trend. Check your premises!
You ready for this ?
Right, let's begin
I am I, and you are You
And just cause you don't see me
doesn't mean I'm not there
And just because I'm in Heaven
Doesn't mean I don't Care
One day we'll meet...You and I
You'll Step out of the Darkness
And I'll be standing in the light
I've always been watching you...
Dogs of Capitalism, snarl, bark, bark, gnash, gnash...
Merde I look so young...As I am sure you by now know, I am nothing but a worrier, and a bit younger somewhere in another universe far, far away. Anyway, if you listen to the podcast, and not many do 😂 buzzsprout.com/1017043/9888382
You'll be left short handed this week because I omit a very important quote. Let me make good on this omission, you see, I have a soul mate in the prolific but often misunderstood Italian soccer player Pippo Inzaghi, the second highest scorer in all European club competitions.
I thought I might turn yesterday's thread into theatre
What's today's fog ?
The power - the supremacy - of the Chinese state "they got this"...
The allure of buying the washout in Chinese tech.
US CPI rising at 1982 levels
The shock of bond yields
The ignorance of the collapsing spread between the short and the long end ?
I'm gonna read The Invisible Man for inspiration. He would know how to respond...
@GeorgeGammon recently asked me..Why did you give up macro ?
Because financial danger to the many has become a signal to shut off their sight, suspend their judgment pursue an unaltered course to the brink, on the unstated premise that the danger will always remain unreal owing to the supposed super-sovereign power of the central banks
And their cronies in fin media spooning their spider lullabies that « they got this ». They’re like a foghorn at the centre of the financial universe, blowing the unwary investor, not to sound a warning, but to summon the fog once more.
In this week's podcast, I go all existential to reveal my conversations with inanimate objects in generating macro narrative - I examine the dollar-yen cross - and go all paranoid schizophrenic "Could it really trade thro' 155 if not return to 200 ???" my voices ask?
Don't short the yen quite yet...but my medical examiner's certificate tells me that if the direction persists and we take out 125 / 135 the power to the upside would be so considerable that you would need to check your macro premises
So these aren't projections but rather my attempt at throwing light on the inspiration for macro trades - think of it like method acting for macro projections and Me? Well I'm the methodman dropping some beats inside my head...