Here's chart I made for myself that I think about. Basically the only time period of US history where we've gone this long without a president winning with 75%+ of electoral college was post-civil war period
Lots of ways to interpret this.
Lots of ways to interpret this.
One would be to think about what are plausible paths of someone getting those numbers in today's age. If we expect reversion to mean, than it's very interesting to understand what paths someone will cut through it.
Another interpretation of course would be to be bearish. A third
Another interpretation of course would be to be bearish. A third
is to think party system has gotten more "efficient" at being roughly evenly split.
You might be wondering what is that datapoint of someone winning with less than 50%. Is that even possible?!?!
You might be wondering what is that datapoint of someone winning with less than 50%. Is that even possible?!?!
Well for those who haven't taken AP US history, I introduce you to the wonders of the 1824 election
Where one party had multiple top contenders. Nobody got a majority. And the House decided to just ignore the popular vote haha
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1824_Unit…
Where one party had multiple top contenders. Nobody got a majority. And the House decided to just ignore the popular vote haha
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1824_Unit…
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