Share this page!

Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
Twitter logo
Jan 22 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
🇩🇰New important Danish data
-HIGHER rates of infection among vaccinated 5-11 yos, even when adjusting for testing rate
-Boosters not associated w/lower infection rates
🟠unvaccinated
🔵2 doses
🟢booster
Data on severe disease & thoughts on mandates 👇
covid19danmark.dk/#gennembrudsin…
Here are COVID ICU (left) & hosp (right) admissions by vax category & age. Boosters have no clear association w/severe disease <age 40-50. This is consistent w/ Israeli data published in NEJM which found no significant correlation w/severe disease <age 40 nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Given the above, it's hard to argue college booster mandates are based in science. And, given even small risk of severe adverse events, are unethical. So this explanation 👇 sadly makes more sense than anything based in good public health or compassion
& for kids 5-11 w/o comorbidities, simple precautionary principle: why should we chance any severe vax reactions for an incalculably low covid IFR & infection-hosp rate req treatment of <1/10,000 (less w/omicron) when vax doesn't prevent infection? medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
I think we are consistently seeing that vax/boosters don't prevent infection/give sterilizing immunity, but that number of vaccine doses should be targeted individually based on age and specific risk factors rather than mandated.
Data from @SSI_dk & @KT_Baek
Many are asking about long covid and I will repeat what I have shared a number of times which is it has been found to be so rare in children that we can't even consistently detect it at the population level in well designed studies with control groups
Here are my thoughts on the most recent MISC data:

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD

Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TracyBethHoeg

Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
Jan 14
So, is myocarditis after vax more common than after covid in 12-17 yo boys?
Let's look at the two studies they are discussing
I would tend to agree w/ @joerogan the better-designed study is the one from Oxford showing myo after vax more than after covid in males <40
Here's why🧵
The oxford study is a re-analysis of a paper published in @Nature (link in tweet below) where they had 38 million people from the UK over 8 months who they knew the vax/myo diagnosis/covid + status. Reanalysis found myo>after vax than covid in males 16-39
The 2nd study identified only *6* cases of post-covid myo over *a year* in males 12-17 in a hospital system w/a cachement of 60 million people. They provided an inappropriately low estimate of # infected giving inappropriately high rate of post-covid myo medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Read 6 tweets
Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
Jan 11
Now, using new 0.48 hazard ratio for hosp w/omicron, we get
1/5000 risk of covid hosp requiring treatment for 12-17 yo w/o comorbidities pre vax
Hong Kong & Kaiser data 1/2700 risk of post dose 2 vax myo boys 12-17
If vax doesn't stop transmission, how is this ethical to mandate?
Considering the above, I wonder why we are not asking "should all teen boys get vaxed" with mRNA vaccines? For example, what about children who have already been infected? Agree w/@walidgellad "benefits vary patient by patient"
theatlantic.com/health/archive…
Here are the Kaiser data on omicon's decreased severity:
Read 6 tweets
Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
Jan 5
🇩🇰Updated data from Denmark showing highest rates of infection in those who have received *boosters* who are >40 yo
🟢booster
🔵2 doses
🔴previously infected
🟠unvaccinated
But see adjustment for test # s below
Denmark now w/around 85% omicron
@SSI_dk (covid19danmark.dk/#gennembrudsin…)
The appearance of negative vax efficacy against infection has been puzzling, especially when separating out prev infected, but @KT_Baek seems to be onto something⬇️ when he adjusts for # of tests taken; this gives v similar infection rates in all 4 groups

Though 2 & 3 doses of vax not effectively preventing infection, 2 doses evidently protecting against severe disease & death in adults & 3 doses seem to offer extra protection in those >70
👇 hospitalization & death rates/100,000 by vax status
🟢booster
🔵2 doses
🟠unvaccinated indlæggelser: hospitalizations
Read 5 tweets
Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
Dec 31, 2021
When considering boosters in children:
1 child/78 developed myo in the booster trial among 16-17 yos
& Pfizer's own analysis shows booster would
-prevent 29-69 hospitalizations/mill but would
-result in 23-69 vax myocarditis/mill in males 16-17
🤔Not a great ratio for most boys
Also remember myocarditis after Pfizer dose 2 & booster (and Moderna 1 &2) more common in males 16-39 than after Covid
And @MartyMakary makes an excellent point here about there not being a VRBPAC expert advisory committee meeting before the FDA authorizes boosters for 12-15 year olds
Read 4 tweets
Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
Dec 26, 2021
🇬🇧 The research group at Oxford who compared myocarditis rates after covid to after the vax (nature.com/articles/s4159…) have just released a new analysis:
In males 16-39,
Myocarditis more common after Pfizer dose 2 & 3
&
Moderna dose 2 than after infection medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
I'm already personally aware of 5 cases of post-booster myo in males 16-24; remember, this @NEJM study on boosters by age, the "rate of severe disease in the youngest age groups (16-39) was v low ...not enough cases to estimate the rate ratio reliably" nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Current college booster mandates do not seem to have the best interests of the students, especially the male students, at heart. We need better data on the risks and benefits of boosters in the <40 age group.
Read 4 tweets
Tracy Høeg, MD, PhD Profile picture
Dec 22, 2021
Danish 🇩🇰 data via @KT_Baek & @SSI_dk
>1/3 of all cases now omicron
No difference in case rates between vax (🔵) & unvax (🟡) in age group w/the most omicron
Prev infection (🔴) still gives some protection
So can we expect vax to protect others? 1/5
covid19danmark.dk/#gennembrudsin…
Based on data above from omicron (no diff in infection risk vax vs unvax) & from delta in @TheLancetInfDis (no significant difference in transm once infected between vax & unvax), it seems:

No, the vax can not be relied on to protect others (2/5)

But, the vaccines still appears effective against severe disease. Here are Danish data on ICU admission by vaccination status
(🟡) unvaccinated
(🔵) 2 or 3 doses
So it appears your vax protects you, not others
(3/5)
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @TracyBethHoeg has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @TracyBethHoeg!

Read all threads by @TracyBethHoeg

:(