1) Question I get asked semi-frequently is how I do research / get up to speed on a new topic.
My skills were honed from 2.5 years of management consulting and ~5 years of VC. It's been invaluable since landing in China and starting to learn about Chinese tech
Let's talk how:
2) My process is the follow:
- Start off with tree trunk knowledge / primers
- Have key questions you are asking
- Background mental models / similar examples
- The art of finding additional info
- Talk to people and then talk some more
3) I think it was Wait but why who first framed that learning is about getting a good grasp of the basic shape (aka the tree trunk) before going into the details (the leaves).
This is why I start every search looking for primers on the subject in both English and Chinese.
4) These are often initiating reports or chunky videos.
You do yourself many favours by setting advance search functions for 'time published' and 'video length' as well knowing when to google with 'ppt' in the search bar.
5) Spend time absorbing the tree trunk knowledge with a few key questions.
The most important of which is 'how does this business or industry make money?'.
This seems a ludicrously simple question until you try to answer it.
6) Don't get lost in the details at this point in the journey. If you don't understand everything, that is ok.
Retain the keywords that comes up in the document for further digging.
The most important thing is to retain the shape of the business and how it makes money.
6) Many things are simpler than they appear, especially in tech and especially once we're just interested in how it makes money.
Certain business models repeat themselves over time and geo, having a mental model of how marketplaces, DTC and SaaS work is crucial for quick uptake
7) The first two exercises are about narrowing down as quickly as possible to a simple framework or hypothesis you're now working to fine-tune for the rest of the research journey.
Details come in later but I find beginners often obsess about them, not knowing all is ok.
8) Now you have a model in your mind and the task is to test your assumptions to see how much it holds weight.
You've probably got 80% of the work done here. The 20% will take more work though.
Start googling the keywords you've picked up to understand them properly.
9) The art of finding information is a lifelong lesson. Not just googling but going multi-media. Look for podcasts, reviews on websites, forums, prospectus meant for the business' customers.
The guiding question should still be focused in a bid to extend your model
10) Additional drivers that's useful to consider at this point are
- Market - how big? What are the key drivers
- Competition - how competitive is the market? Why? What moat is there?
- Product - product demo> reading about product
- Customers - what are they saying?
11) Last point which doesn't get enough coverage is qualitative research aka talking to people who know what they are talking about. This is also obviously the hardest part but there's also a set of skills to it as well.
12) I find for opaque markets like startups or China, talking plays a large part. It's a double-edged sword as its easy to over-index on personal experience, and it's sometimes unclear how believable the person is.
13) The rule of consulting which played out in VC due diligence was after 5 conversations, there's a convergence in agreement over issues. There are often diminishing returns after that.
14) So that's how I do it - read primers, zone in on a simple model based on some priors, dig deeper from keywords and then refine from talking to folks.
This is a very generalised example though.
15) If you're interested in a walkthrough with how I did with one of my pieces, like the thread / follow me and I'll be back with a breakdown soon.
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1) So ByteDance 'disbanding' their investment team is the news of the day. While it's easy to say this is because of the new regulations around investment approvals, the reality is more complicated
2) ByteDance has bi-monthly (every two month) OKR reorgs. Yep, every two months. This means an organisation that is agile at best and chaotic at worst.
Teams spin-up and spin-down with relatively high frequency.
Re-org of a whole team, even with 100 people, is not new.
3) The investment team had about 3 different heads in 3 years. From Yan Shuo who's now head of gaming to Alex Zhu of former Musicaly, and now Zhao Pengyuan (who reports to Alex Zhu). For a division, the constant change must be a reflection of it trying to find clear direction
1) Let's talk about the generational mental model differences in China and its impact.
Rather than talking about boomers, gen x, millennials and zoomers. Chinese media segments their population by birth year ranges with monikers of post-80s generation, post-90s and post-00s.
2) This is very fine dicing of the population but highly relevant.
Given China's fast pace change, every decade saw substantial changes in living conditions and therefore massive shifts in that generation's mindsets and values.
3) China went from a state of material scarcity in the early 1980s to high variance in affluence by the 2000s. The transition to more abundance mindsets is clearly seen with each generation.
(variance across regions applies, but this holds especially true for the top cities)
1) Let's talk about how Xiaomi's one of the savviest and stealthiest Chinese tech investors bar none.
Their playbook involves selling mobiles close to margin to land a consumer, before upselling that customer on products they've invested in.
Almost Shopify for hardware
2) Xiaomi famously announced they would never make more than 5% in profit margin from hardware in 2018.
Because they see the phone as a distribution channel for their platform of products and services, the phones are cheap to basically acquire consumer 'traffic'.
3) Xiaomi carries over 2,000 consumer devices in their online and offline stores, of which it is only responsible for a select few, like TV, Xiaomi Pad and speakers.
The rest is made by 400 partner companies.
But Xiaomi isn't a simple retailer, they are a platform
1) Changes in the air - pulling of idol-focused community apps, wasted milk scandal, Kris Wu's arrest, government announcement condemning fan culture.
Feels like a bigger crack-down for idols or 'traffic stars' (流量明星) is imminent.
2) Idol culture, imported from Japan and Korea, has grown rapidly in China in recent years. Some reports estimate China’s idol market to be worth RMB 100 billion ($14 billion) by 2020, with YoY growth of 60%.
3) The business model harks back to 1920s' movie studios - where studios incubate stars and secure them with exclusive contracts.
But instead of studios, it's internet media platforms and their ecosystem of trainee schools these days.
If your life has been going well, all the questions facing you from late twenties onwards will be hard questions, to which there are no right answers.
All the low hanging fruit questions have been answered and you're just left with the ultimate questions of 'what kind of person do I want to be? What kind of life do I want to live? Who do I want to be with?'
These 'hard questions' are actually a sign of the blessed in many respects. Because you have the luxury of trying to answer them.