Thread by @DrEricDing

I’m concerned about the new #BA2 sub variant of #Omicron. In the left panel, you see it is surging (light green) to almost half of all Danish 🇩🇰 #Omicron cases—surpassing the old Omicron BA1 variant by a lot. Either it’s much faster transmission or it evades immunity even more.👇

2) Elsewhere in 🇬🇧, while still early, #BA2 Omicron subvariant is doubling now every ~4 days right now… while every 4 days is slower than original #Omicron displacing delta every 1.5-3 days, BA2 displacing Omicron BA1 is a really bad sign.

3) Denmark, #BA2 passed BA1 on Jan 12th it seems (we are only knowing now due to sequencing delays).

4) here again is #BA2 in the UK 🇬🇧 - early but fast.

5) here is Germany’s rise of BA2 as well. Early but looking exponential too.

https://twitter.com/LongDesertTrain/status/1485312752415608836

6) here is BA2 in Netherlands 🇳🇱— already at 5%. HT @LongDesertTrain

7) UPDATE— we now have an estimate of BA2 transmission growth advantage over vanilla #Omicron BA1. It’s not good… see thread 🧵 below… it’s approximately *DOUBLE* of omicron. Unclear if contagiousness or if immunity evasiveness. Either way it’s growing faster… 👇

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1485354857339011080

8) the other bad news on #BA2 is that our old friend, S-Gene dropout shortcut (PCR) test, cannot identify the BA2 sub variant easily—while BA1 #Omicron is easily found these days with SGTF. This might make deciphering BA2 and Delta & other strains harder. github.com/cov-lineages/p…

9) Danish scientists have warned that BA2 is trouble. We should heed their warning. I want this pandemic over but wishing it away doesn’t solve anything. Only through collective action can we end it.

https://twitter.com/Realanise/status/1485335530040545280

10) there is no proof newer variants will necessarily become milder & endemic as if by magic. That’s bullshit wishful thinking. I trust Professor Gregory on this — don’t listen to TV pundits who are paid to sell you “reopen everyone and let it rip” propaganda.

https://twitter.com/tryangregory/status/1485019200842350599

11) do no listen to folks who claim endemic means normality and the disappearance of COVID worries. They don’t explain to you what endemic really means. There are really bad endemic outcomes too. 👇

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1485670211915243524

12) Virus researcher & chief physician of Denmark 🇩🇰’s CDC @SSI_dk says you can get **reinfected with #BA2 sub-variant** of #Omicron after being infected with Omicron BA.1. ➡️ This is why we shouldn’t risk COVID or chase mass infection. nyheder.tv2.dk/2022-01-21-ny-…

13) UPDATE— Denmark 🇩🇰’s #BA2 Omicron subvariant has now fully taken over — dominant with 65% of all sequences #Omicron… Germany and Netherlands and UK not far behind. US has a handful of cases but likely rise soon too.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1485831808189091843

14) is COVID slowing in Denmark 🇩🇰? Absolutely not. #COVID19 continues to spike along with deaths.

https://twitter.com/mukasaamaat/status/1485837040457502722

15) there are naysayers who point to ICUs dropping. But that’s misleading — because instead of hospital ICUs, Denmark relies on long term care nursing home facilities - which deaths are going up. Hence you need to look at deaths not partial ICU numbers in 🇩🇰

https://twitter.com/MukasaAMaat/status/1485843542287204352

16) here is a better graph showing deaths surging in Denmark 🇩🇰 — pretty clear #Omicron isn’t “mild”.

ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…

17) UPDATE— Denmark’s CDC says BA2 subvariant of #Omicron is about ~1.5 times more contagious than BA1 (original Omicron). This makes it much higher than prior estimates and could “extend” the Omicron wave into February, says Denmark 🇩🇰 officials. ssi.dk/-/media/arkiv/…

18) not good - Denmark (where BA2 is most common) is seeing really bad hospitalization surges. Many even with boosters. BA2 could be quite evasive against past immunity I’m thinking as well as more contagious.

https://twitter.com/gab_h_r/status/1486752979445288963