Thread by @CaptainScio

1) Good Morning! With Sunday being here, let’s look at a couple of things before Monday’s session, concentrating mostly on $BTC and a little bit on markets. Chart below is set up a little differently since I’ll be doing some short term trades with 1 and 5 min charts.

2) Unfortunately I won’t be posting those because there isn’t any way to keep that short a time period in real time on Twitter. The charts above are support lines for #BTC. These are drawn using Welles Wilder’s method which I’ve found very useful.

3) The bigger the S# (S meaning support) the more difficult to penetrate. Old lines fade when new adjusted lines print. The new lines have more weight but the old lines still work for a time which is why I outline them. Same with R#’s (R meaning resistance).

4) I’ve added some faster moving averages for my short term trades but when translated to the “above” daily chart you can see the trend is still down. Moving averages, although lagging, are still the basis for many trading systems and MDT uses a version of them for trends as well

5) So back to #BTC, which generally has been following the Nasdaq and not the S&P. This has been the fractal for a long time. It’s not perfect by any means, not lockstep, but generally it works. When it’s not, either the BTC chart or stock chart predicts the future of the other.

6) In this case, #BTC hit it’s peak twice in the 65k range and then fell. Stocks waited a little while longer and then came under the influence of Fed tapering. In addition, whenever there’s been a “tide change” in stocks, like with the covid crash, Bitcoin has followed.

7) We are now looking at a sell signal for stocks (possible strong tide change) and #BTC was the predictor for that one falling approx 50% from it’s high. Does that mean #Stocks as well? Maybe, we’ll have to see but we are safe in cash while we watch.

8) Now the daily #BTC charts show the Welles Wilder going pretty deep, an old S4 and a new S3 in the 22k-25k range, which followers will recognize as the A.I. prediction from 2017-18. To recap, A.I. said $64k top, then grind to 22k-25k, then up to 100k-250k a few years later.

9) Remember that the A.I. was when $BTC was no where near where we are now. 2017 we went from 1000 to approx 10k and 2018 we went back down to 3-4000. A.I. picked up the chatter on the internet and social media and made its prediction during this roller coaster.

10) At the time 64k was so pie in the sky people heads would explode, yet we got there and now here we are in the middle a huge drop….so it’s on the table again AND the Welles Wilder is lining up, so if I had to make a prediction it would be watch those WW supports.

11) Currently #BTC is resting on a support line, an “old” S3 and while S3’s are strong it’s fading with time. If it was going to make a significant bounce from here it would have to do so soon. Otherwise the new line acts as a magnet downward to 33.4k.

12) So where from here short term? Seasonals would say some kind of bounce from now to the end of the month as we are so oversold, but seasonals are more accurate when the MDT is in an upward trend, which we are not since we just got a sell signal Friday.

13) But if we isolate the seasonals for stocks (and connect it to BTC), small rally is possible this week, Feb is all over the place, probably ends down (nowhere man/no man‘s land), a rally from March to May and further correction lower than here May to Oct/Nov.

14) And if BTC is connected to the Nasdaq, which unfortunately has had a mind of its own, it looks like that while the S&P might get a rally going toward the end if the year (Nov-Dec) to make up for the correction from May-Nov & ending UP, Naz will be flat to down, same for #BTC

15) So crazy as it seems, the coin will hit that 22k-25k sometime during May-Nov after a rally attempt (if Naz gives us a chance during S&P short term rally March-May) and ends up right around where we are now by the end of the year, keeping in mind WW adjustments to Resistance.

16) And 2023 may be the beginning of our shot to 100k-250k. That rise will probably coincide with the MDT giving a buy signal, of which averages a 2 year run. But the Naz must participate for this to happen as well. Hopefully, all the BS of today will be gone by then.

17) These are some very wide ranging prognostications going forward, and depends on a lot of things. Each indicator will adjust as we move forward which is why I try to do things on a day to day, week to week, month to month basis. The further out, the cloudier the crystal ball.

18) But all in all, nothing really “spectacular“ is going to happen until the MDT, which is the master indicator, flips back to buy, and the minimum we are waiting there is 6 weeks historically up to 6-9 months normally, which coincidentally bring us near end of summer correction

19) Yes, I know thats a long time. It’s not written in stone though. It’s just averages and can flip earlier. It’s just a matter of when the coast is clear. In the meantime with so many negatives on our plate I am very happy to wait on the sidelines with my main account.

20) You should build up your main account during this time to take full advantage of the next stock run/MDT signal. That main account is your big money for retirement, When all was said and done for this last run, depending in the index vehicle we did 30-40% from March 2020.

21) If you were spread out over several, we easily hit our goal of 20% per annum which is enough to really grow an account and eventually peel off your retirement. BTC’s growth was from 6k to where we are now, not too shabby. From 25k to 250k is 10x, so future is bright.

22) Justhave to be patient, and that is one of the toughest things about investing and trading. In the meantime, many of you remember my ”18 months to full time trading” goal here on Twitter. Now is a good time to put some of that to use while waiting for MDT. Peace, Love, Coffee