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Jan 24 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
It never rains and then it pours and pours and pours and pours.

#ExtremeWeather event with multiple cyclonic storms hits drought stricken Madagascar.

Thread...
This rainfall forecast for Madagascar on Friday (10 days) was/is seriously dire. A waterlogged South Indian Ocean atmosphere has been forecast for some time to develop multiple tropical storms. And on Friday they arrived.
So far floods have produced rains killing at least 10 people in the Capital City, Antananarivo [Location: goo.gl/maps/NipR18bSo…] hahttps://www.africanews.com/2022/01/18/10-killed-by-floods-in-madagascar/

At 587k km2 Madagascar is larger than France with a pop. of 28 million.
Relief Web released a Red Cross "Emergency Plan of Action" document Friday.
Relief Web >> reliefweb.int/report/mozambi…
IFRC >> ifrc.org/appeals?date_f…
The following three satellite animations show storm activity as the cyclone (Storm Ana) come on shore over night Friday, through to today

Here we see 24 hours from 10.30am Friday.
Here we see 24 hours from 10.30am Saturday.
And the 24 hours from 10.30am Sunday till this morning. Storm Ana has now arrived in Mozambique, and still appears to be fairly intense, in rainfall terms. #StormAna has never been a high intensity cyclone in wind terms.
While Storm Ana has now passed, unfortunately the weather pattern may well produce some more storms for Madagascar over the next fortnight. This IVWT (integrated water vapour) forecast is for eight days till February 1st.
This longer range 16 day forecast shows the forecast storm above arriving shortly after Feb 2nd, with a larger and stronger storm trailing in its wake.

This remains a situation worth keeping an eye on.
Rain, provided there is not too much of it and it is where it is needed could be beneficial for Madagascar.
Here are latest humanitarian assessments via @ReliefWeb
Jan 13th - reliefweb.int/report/madagas…
Jan 11th - reliefweb.int/report/madagas…
@reliefweb /ENDS

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 26
Dear @UNGeneva, @WFP, @UNReliefChief, @OCHA_Ethiopia.

It is time to provide a comprehensive briefing which recounts the truth about why aid operations have not been able to reach Tigray. Including the story of stolen trucks and aid looting by the TPLF.
I’ve watched nearly every UN media briefing for the past 6 months.

Questions are routinely asked both the NYC and Geneva press corps about the issue of the closure of the Mekelle-Semera route, and missing trucks, but no substantive answers have been provided, ever.
This is not transparent or accountable, and begs the question as to why?

The Afar Region and road was attacked in mid July by TPLF and has been under attack almost continuously ever since. Thousands of Afar have died and 100s of 1000s have been displaced.
Read 24 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 26
If @AFP had reported on the renewed Afar offensive which began mid Dec., and reported on its progress this report might not be disgraceful.

But commencing reporting on the Afar front with report of a victim blaming narrative from the TPLF, is truly dreadful journalism @rcoreyb.
The truth - easily verifiable - is that TPLF commenced their military operations on Afar before they announced their faux ceasefire/withdrawal in mid December.

Also they are not only attacking on the Afar front. Image
TPLF’s army increased its attacks on Afar on 24th (after shelling/incursions for 5 weeks), leading to many calls by the Afar for the ENDF to come to their aid. This is obvious to anyone who searches “Afar”on Twitter.

This is a more interesting story & unlike this report, true. Image
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 24
The manner in which @DrTedros appears to have delivered himself responsibility to dictate his own disciplinary process in today’s @WHO Executive Board meeting is disgraceful and reflects extremely poorly on the UN and its agencies.
It should not be allowed to stand. @WHO is a global organization funded publicly to the tune of well over $4 Billion USD per year.
Completely separate from the serious allegations raised by the Govt of Ethiopia about his partiality in favour of a rebel group in which he is part of the leadership, it is wholly inappropriate for @DrTedros to be standing unopposed for such an impt. global position.
Read 15 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 24
I listened to the UN Geneva Briefing from Friday. There was a video stream of today's @WHO Executive Board meeting it seems, which was the basis of the @Reuters report .

The video stream is here >> who.int/about/governan…
It took a bit of time to find it - Ethiopia's intervention comes 7:50 into the Second session today. Ambassador Kebebe (@kebede_zenebe) attempted to read a statement but was twice ruled out of order by the chair. who.int/about/governan…
The Chair of the @WHO'2 150th Executive Board Meeting did so on the basis of a decision made 15 minutes into the 1st session concerning the "Note Verbal" from the Govt of Ethiopia. Image
Read 18 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 24
Super weird UN Daily Press Conference underway. Its been going for 75 minutes, albeit with several breaks. @UN_Spokesperson @StephDujarric has just returned to the podium. It appears to be about Burkina Faso. The UNSG is concerned about a coup, and the whereabouts of President.
The press conference proper has effectively started 75 minutes late. He is finally delivering the daily read-out - which apparently was very late being prepared.

The press conference has so far included two briefings - one on Syrian weather disasters for 1.7m snowbound refugees.
The second briefing - scheduled - was on International day of Education and was super interesting about the impact of Covid on children's education. A rather dire situation.
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 24
#EUROPE #ExtremeWeather

Forecast models show the period of relative quiet in terms of tropical atmospheric river activity in the North Atlantic has come to an end, and the next fortnight will bring significant rain and snow across most of Europe and the Mediterranean.
The forecast above shows the next 8 days of precipitable water as forecast by the @NOAA GFS model. The combination of this atmospheric water and a stationary high pressure system in the North Atlantic create conditions for very high levels of precipitation.

Days 8-16 days below.
Both 8 day periods include an interesting new feature, caused by significant levels of convection off the West Coast of the North Africa. This is a 24 hour satellite loop of the first of these events currently underway.
Read 21 tweets

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