Thread by @althecat

Dear @UNGeneva, @wfp, @UNReliefChief, @OCHA_Ethiopia.

It is time to provide a comprehensive briefing which recounts the truth about why aid operations have not been able to reach Tigray. Including the story of stolen trucks and aid looting by the TPLF.

https://twitter.com/fanatelevision/status/1485946105598722050

I’ve watched nearly every UN media briefing for the past 6 months.

Questions are routinely asked both the NYC and Geneva press corps about the issue of the closure of the Mekelle-Semera route, and missing trucks, but no substantive answers have been provided, ever.

This is not transparent or accountable, and begs the question as to why?

The Afar Region and road was attacked in mid July by TPLF and has been under attack almost continuously ever since. Thousands of Afar have died and 100s of 1000s have been displaced.

But to my knowledge these attacks have rarely if ever been clearly attributed as the cause for the humanitarian crisis in Tigray, instead for months we heard calls attributing blame to the Govt. of Ethiopia.

More recently “all sides” are called on to allow aid.

I have never once heard a senior UN US or EU official clearly attribute the actual cause - repeatedly explained by the GoE - namely continuing military offensives against Afar by TPLF forces and the theft of trucks for use in military actions.

Why?

Why has there never been a focussed set of UN humanitarian agency calls on the TPLF to:

1. Stop obstructing humanitarian aid delivery for their own starving people.

2. Stop looting humanitarian aid resources/destroying civilian infrastructure in Afar and Amhara….

…

3. Stop diverting UN aid resources - food, fuel, medicine and trucks for military purposes.

The Western Media, UN officials and Western diplomats appear to be deeply deluded at the nature of the ongoing crisis in Ethiopia.

The brief period of hope for an end to hostilities in Northern Ethiopia in late December was always illusory.

1. Attacks on Afar never stopped. They resumed at the time of the ceasefire/withdrawal announcement and have continued ever since.

It is clear now that TPLF is keeping the humanitarian aid route closed deliberately, to maintain its victim positioning in IC minds.

2. Upon returning to Tigray, after the death of 10s of 1000s of conscripted youth and civilian fighters, the TPLF embarked on a new recruitment/training operation.

3. On or about December 28th with their regrouped forces they launched a large offensive on the Western Tigray front, reinvading North Gondar on the Adi Arkay road and sought to break through Welkaite again.

They were routed.

It was during this period that the high profile air strikes took place which allegedly killed civilians in an IDP camp at De Debit and a group of women textile workers near Mai Tsembre.

4. My understanding is that this offensive, unreported outside of Ethiopia, was a significant military confrontation involving heavy weaponry and tanks.

Associated air strikes were against supply activity assisting the TPLF offensive.

5. It is inconceivable that Western intelligence was not fully aware of all of this. But presumably the fiction about an end to fighting was maintained by all involved to keep the “peace” hope narrative alive.

6. The defeat of the Western Offensive led to a renewed push for mediation and a negotiated cessation of hostilities.

But on the basis of the renewed counter offensive at strength in Afar, we can presume now that these efforts have also failed.

7. The latest developments in Afar which have come during the US’s Satterfield / @AsstSecStateAF Molly Phee peace mission to the region strongly suggest that the TPLF has decided against a peaceful conclusion to this war.

And as illustrated in this timeline thread, that they are using Western IC credulity and silence as a weapon against peace.

8. Surely it is now apparent to all observers that the TPLF have no intention to go quietly. It seems likely now that just as they launched scaled up renewed offensive activity in July during the Olympics Truce, that they now intend to do so again.

9. Taking advantage of Western distractions, elections, covid, and events like the debacle in Afghanistan as cover for their ongoing aggression had been a consistent pattern. And now they are using the NATO:Ukraine crisis in a similar manner.

Meanwhile the Govt of Ethiopia has been working hard to deliver a National Dialogue, as advised by the West, and even released opposition security prisoners as part of this.

But attempts to hold this dialogue are being hampered by the ongoing war, and the nonsensical media coverage and analysis emanating from the West.

Calls are being made for the ENDF to re-engage in Afar now and frankly, this seems to be necessary.

Unfortunately the UN EU and US remain willingly blind to all of this, and further deterioration in the security and humanitarian situation in Northern Ethiopia now seems inevitable.

A clear eyed Renaissance in the Western position could limit and perhaps contain the extent of this deterioration, but the time has come to give up on the notion that the TPLF can be willingly brought to negotiations. It is clear that they cannot.

/ENDS

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