Thread by @sperformance

"At the outbreak of World War 1 in August 1914, enthusiastic patriots on both sides were assured it would be over by Christmas. At the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic in Jan 2020, there was a general assumption that life would be back to normal by Easter." Never happened #1

Our wish - "Each time there is a new wave of the pandemic, there is a strong desire to believe that if we can just get past this crisis, things will be better, the pandemic will come to an end and we can return to a normal life” #2

Reality check "Empirical evidence about the course of the pandemic and evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus show that this wish is not likely to become a reality.” #3

"There is a widespread view that extensive transmission of the currently dominant #Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 will bring an end to the pandemic by harmlessly inducing herd immunity. This is unjustified, dangerous thinking.” #4

"Natural infection does lead a temporary immune response, and an immune response boost in those with pre-existing immunity due to vaccination or previous infection. This usually leads to recovery in the affected individual and eventually the end of the wave” #5

"However, there have been four waves of COVID-19 over two years.Reinfection is known to occur and there is evidence that neither natural infection with SARS-CoV-2 nor vaccination leads to sustained protection against COVID-19” #6

"Hence, long-term protective herd immunity cannot be achieved by “letting it rip”. Over time the community will again become susceptible to the next wave.” #7

"Some infections, or vaccinations, such as measles, chickenpox, and polio, do induce long-lived immunity but others, like influenza, the common cold virus and SARS-CoV-2 do not" #8

"With SARS-CoV-2, early evidence also suggests that the best vaccines seem to be more effective than natural infection alone at inducing an immune response and, of course, the vaccines induce that response with a hugely lower risk of adverse effects and death" #9

"So, although widespread natural infection can induce an immune response, it will not produce sustained widespread protective immunity and does result in substantial harm. Vaccination is the only route to achieving herd immunity" #10

Variants - "Whenever uncontrolled transmission is occurring somewhere in the world, new SARS-CoV-2 variants that can escape from existing immunity and cause a further global wave of COVID-19 disease will continue to arise across the world." #11

"The only sustainable solution is to reduce the number of people getting COVID-19 and to do it everywhere. Even reducing the global burden by half would substantially reduce the likelihood of a new variant of concern appearing in a given time period" #12

"COVID-19 cannot be eradicated, but we can stop sustained community transmission. This status is known as “elimination”. In this situation outbreaks may still occur, but they do not become overwhelming. We have achieved this with measles" #13

"We have no chance of even making progress toward this goal with COVID-19 without concerted and globally coordinated action. That action needs to achieve a low rate of transmission (R­eff < 1) simultaneously across the world" #14

"A commitment to reducing numbers is our only way out. The longer we wait, the harder it will be. We need to look beyond the current wave." #15
1⃣ Control and prevent C19 airborne transmission
2⃣ Equitable vaccination
3⃣ Global solidarity

Reference
Backed by Science: Here’s How We Can Eliminate COVID-19 healthpolicy-watch.news/93258-2/