1x In 2019, I compared @tesla to @netflix in 2011 in both @barronsonline & on @CNBC
My premise was neither had a demand problem at that time and @tesla would rebound like @netflix had once wall street did the math
A lot of laughing & mockery ensued
My premise was neither had a demand problem at that time and @tesla would rebound like @netflix had once wall street did the math
A lot of laughing & mockery ensued
2x Of course @tesla went up 20x since then. As always, ignore the mockery and focus on the math
In 2022, it now does seem like @netflix does have a demand problem now.
With US/Canada subs at ~75MM and US HH at 128MM, @Netflix is well past the steep part of the NA s-curve
In 2022, it now does seem like @netflix does have a demand problem now.
With US/Canada subs at ~75MM and US HH at 128MM, @Netflix is well past the steep part of the NA s-curve
3x The rest of the world will drive subscribers, but not at the same pricing and revenue
Which is why @categorypirates @lochhead @nicolascole77 & I were worried about their gaming strategy which seemed weak and timid.
It should have been them buying @Activision not @microsoft
Which is why @categorypirates @lochhead @nicolascole77 & I were worried about their gaming strategy which seemed weak and timid.
It should have been them buying @Activision not @microsoft
4x @tesla on the other hand does not have a demand problem, given the months long wait for their cars.
They sold >0.9MM cars in the world in 2021. They have said to expect 50% CAGR.
This means by 2026 they expect to sell 7MM cars (enroute to 20MM cars by 2030)
They sold >0.9MM cars in the world in 2021. They have said to expect 50% CAGR.
This means by 2026 they expect to sell 7MM cars (enroute to 20MM cars by 2030)
5x I built a fact-base on consumer demand for @tesla (in the US). A few things to note:
- There are 16MM HH that badly want to buy a @tesla
- They are 10 years younger than the ave are buyer
- They are >50% minority
These consumers represent the future of car consumers
- There are 16MM HH that badly want to buy a @tesla
- They are 10 years younger than the ave are buyer
- They are >50% minority
These consumers represent the future of car consumers
6x Given all of the above, demand should exceed supply until roughly 2027-2028
If you annualize the demand and gross up for rest of world, the numbers wash out
The demand will only continue to grow with #cybertruck and the <$30K car being built in China
No demand problem here
If you annualize the demand and gross up for rest of world, the numbers wash out
The demand will only continue to grow with #cybertruck and the <$30K car being built in China
No demand problem here
7x There isn't really any concern about competition until 2027-2028 too.
This isn't just because of @tesla's strength (which is formidable)...
...but because competitors won't be able to scale production until the latter part of the decade anyway
This isn't just because of @tesla's strength (which is formidable)...
...but because competitors won't be able to scale production until the latter part of the decade anyway
8x The fed and inflation is what it is, and will do what it does
But as CategoryQueens go, I prefer the ones with a clear demand tailwind for years to come like @tesla...
...vs current CategoryQueens without a clear thesis for what category is next for them, like @netflix
But as CategoryQueens go, I prefer the ones with a clear demand tailwind for years to come like @tesla...
...vs current CategoryQueens without a clear thesis for what category is next for them, like @netflix
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