How to reduce your chance of dying from Covid by 99%?
Get vaccinated and a booster.
One of the most impressive graphs I've seen for the impact of vaccination in the US pandemic
(thanks @redouad@OurWorldinData for re-plotting my makeshift graph from earlier today)
Highlighting the data above are for all ages
Graphs for vaccination vs deaths by age groups (w/o booster partitioned):
Now deaths by age groups: 65+, 50-49, 18-49
For each group, death is reduced by 99% for vaccination plus booster compared with unvaccinated (down to zero for youngest age group) ourworldindata.org/grapher/united…
The absolute risk is provided on each graph per 100,000 people
That translates to about 10/100,000 for lives saved across all 18+ age groups or 44/100,000 for lives saved for age 65+ (vaccination + booster)
I'm not aware of anything else in medicine that reduces death by 99%
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What to make of Omicron's BA.1 and (sister) BA.2 lineages?
Both are hyper-mutated with over 50 mutations but many are different, particularly in the spike and ORF1a regions outbreak.info /1
There's not any functional or epidemiological data to show any meaningful differences....yet. But BA.2 has become dominant in Denmark, out-competing BA.1, and its prevalence is rising in India, Singapore, Sweden, the UK and other countries /2 Graph via @Mike_Honey_
The spread of BA.2 supports increased transmissibility (hard to imagine beyond BA.1, O's sister). On Jan 21st, UK designated it as a variant under investigation ft.com/content/34fef1… More to learn, keep 👀, no reason for distress at this point (we already have enough of that)
Debunking the notion that boosters don't reduce Omicron symptomatic infections. Another new study from Qatar shows they are halved medrxiv.org/content/10.110… matched >400,000 people with mRNA vaccines 2 vs 3-dose
Booster vaccine effectiveness vs Omicron infections 62% (2 dose 32%) @UKHSA in people without Prior Covid assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
and higher with Prior Covid, hybrid immunity, as seen in all studies
Now there are 3 reports for vaccine effectiveness vs Omicron hospitalization, @UKHSA, @KPSCalResearch and today's @CDCMMWR. They are quite consistent for marked protection of the 3rd shot (booster). My summary table here
Here are the data from the new CDC report for vaccine effectiveness for both Delta and Omicron, 2-dose or 3-dose and vs Emergency Room visits or Hospitalizations
It seems the people who write the vaccines w/ a booster aren't working against Omicron are completely out of touch with the data
I'd consider ~90% effectiveness vs hospitalization pretty, pretty damn good assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Especially compared with 44% without a booster
Then there's data for age 65+:
94% effectiveness, going to 89% after 10+ weeks khub.net/documents/1359…
Maybe people will realize that we're very fortunate, given Omicron's extensive immune escape, to have this level of protection from an extra dose of a vaccine directed against a virus from 2 years ago erictopol.substack.com/p/were-very-lu…
New data mRNA vaccine 4th dose timesofisrael.com/israeli-trial-…
—HCW, 154 Pfizer, 120 Moderna, + control group
—Increase in antibodies > 3rd dose
—Little effect on Omicron cases
—No data yet for ? severe disease, memory B/T cells, higher or more durable protection
—Uncertain benefit/need
Last week @UKHSA published their new data on Omicron and 2 dose vs 3 dose vaccine effectiveness (VE) vs infections assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
In people w/o prior Covid, the booster approximately doubled VE, the 62% isn't bad (point estimate)
But
It falls off pretty fast, this vs Omicron (and Delta) symptomatic infections. So an important unresolved question is whether the 4th dose helps prevents this attrition of VE over time vs symptomatic infection and severe disease
The 1st day drop in US hospitalizations, including weekends and holidays, in 1 month. Hopefully, it's a good omen newsnodes.com/us ( less by >2300)
Going along with this yesterday was New York's reduction of 548 patients hospitalized, the most in a day in 9 months. Test positivity is coming down in recent days
17 January
2 days in a row of decreasing US hospitalizations, very good to see