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Jan 18 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
It seems the people who write the vaccines w/ a booster aren't working against Omicron are completely out of touch with the data
I'd consider ~90% effectiveness vs hospitalization pretty, pretty damn good
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Especially compared with 44% without a booster
Then there's data for age 65+:
94% effectiveness, going to 89% after 10+ weeks
khub.net/documents/1359…
Maybe people will realize that we're very fortunate, given Omicron's extensive immune escape, to have this level of protection from an extra dose of a vaccine directed against a virus from 2 years ago
erictopol.substack.com/p/were-very-lu…
Same with me

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More from @EricTopol

Eric Topol Profile picture
Jan 18
New data mRNA vaccine 4th dose
timesofisrael.com/israeli-trial-…
—HCW, 154 Pfizer, 120 Moderna, + control group
—Increase in antibodies > 3rd dose
—Little effect on Omicron cases
—No data yet for ? severe disease, memory B/T cells, higher or more durable protection
—Uncertain benefit/need
Last week @UKHSA published their new data on Omicron and 2 dose vs 3 dose vaccine effectiveness (VE) vs infections assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
In people w/o prior Covid, the booster approximately doubled VE, the 62% isn't bad (point estimate)
But
It falls off pretty fast, this vs Omicron (and Delta) symptomatic infections. So an important unresolved question is whether the 4th dose helps prevents this attrition of VE over time vs symptomatic infection and severe disease
Read 6 tweets
Eric Topol Profile picture
Jan 17
The 1st day drop in US hospitalizations, including weekends and holidays, in 1 month. Hopefully, it's a good omen
newsnodes.com/us ( less by >2300) Image
Going along with this yesterday was New York's reduction of 548 patients hospitalized, the most in a day in 9 months. Test positivity is coming down in recent days Image
17 January
2 days in a row of decreasing US hospitalizations, very good to see
Read 4 tweets
Eric Topol Profile picture
Jan 15
The remarkable story of how it took multiple decades of perseverance to make the mRNA Covid vaccines a reality
nytimes.com/2022/01/15/hea…
Pioneers @kkariko and @WeissmanLab led the way with their 2005 @ImmunityCP paper, rejected by @nature and @ScienceMagazine
My summary of the significance of that classic paper
cell.com/immunity/fullt…
Here's a great timeline for how the mRNA Covid vaccines ultimately got developed
@ElieDolgin @nature nature.com/articles/d4158…
Read 6 tweets
Eric Topol Profile picture
Jan 11
First report of US outcomes for Omicron: ~53,000 cases in Southern California (vs Delta), consistent w/ S Africa and UK
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
~50% less hospital admission from ER/out-patient
~75% less ICU admission
~70% reduction in hospital length of stay
Evidence for vaccine protection vs Omicron symptomatic hospital admission (For Covid) among cases tested in outpatient settings
This is all good news to confirm reports from South Africa, UK, Denmark, Israel, and other countries.
But please do not forget that when there's 5-10X cases, there's still an overload of ER visits/hospital/ICU admissions.
Especially among unvaccinated and vaccinated, waned.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Topol Profile picture
Jan 6
The US vaccine booster rate is dreadfully low
@OurWorldinData
You will see that play out by many vaccinated, waned, hospitalized patients
(already happening, but it's a country without data)
Vaccine effectiveness vs hospitalization with Omicron infection
2-shot 52%
3-shot 88%
That the US has not made "fully vaccinated"= 3 shots ignores these data and will lead to a large number of preventable hospitalizations
erictopol.substack.com/p/humans-2-omi…
Illustrating this important issue, the current rise of hospitalizations in a large health system among vaccinated, waned vs vaccinated, boosted
Read 4 tweets
Eric Topol Profile picture
Jan 6
I keep looking at New York State as the indicator for what's to come in the US. For new cases/capita, it's leading the US. If it were a country, it would now be the 2nd highest in the world after Ireland. In contrast to the CDC, the state has a lot of solid new data to review /1
Hospitalizations are rising, sharply
The level of patients requiring ICU beds is nearly as high as the monster 3rd wave (well below the 1st wave) /2
newsnodes.com/us_state/NY
coronavirus.health.ny.gov/daily-hospital…
NYS "fully vaxx" rate is 72% and also has better than US avg for older age groups.
There's some reduction of vaccine effectiveness vs hospitalization recently, but the overwhelming proportion of patients admitted are among the unvaccinated /3
Read 5 tweets

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