Thread by @therealarod1984

1/24 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* Testing & Cases have already peaked. Will breakdown the dates they peaked in this thread
* Hospitalization Census may have already peaked, 7DMA still tracking with my near 2 week old prediction of peaking on 1/25
* Its downhill from here

1/n

https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1484989574250172416

1/24 Testing

Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/14:
* Pos% @ 32.90%, which will be peak for the wave
* Positive Tests appeared to peak on 1/12
* Testing appeared to peak on 1/10
* This informs Case peak estimate I'll make on 3/n

2/n

1/24 - Cases

* Case 7DMA big drop to at 46K. Now 7K behind 1/17 peak
* With both Testing in decline starting 1/10 & positivity rate starting 1/14, positive tests are only going down from there
* Case peak of 1/17 (due to batch reporting) likely holds based on the above
.
3/n

1/24 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* Admits 7DMA - 2089. Its mid crest, growth down to 3%
* % beds tagged as Covid is also cresting @ 21%
* Census may have peaked on 1/20 at 13371
* Census 7DMA growth down to 10%, likely to hit the predicted 1/25 peak on the nose
.
4/n

1/24 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* ICU census at 2696
* Look at Chart 3. ICU is going to crest way below any prior wave, despite cases being 300% higher than any previous record.
* Case Fatality Rate is going to be at flu-like numbers for the Omicron wave

5/n
.

I thought there was 1 more Case peak, but 1/17 is going to be it. Havent had a wave where testing crested before pos% rate. Summer 2021 pos% peak was 38 days before testing's. This wave was so short & steep all the way around & the decline is going to be equally as rapid

6/end