1/20 Texas C19 Update: MLK Weekend Rebound

THREAD:

* Hospitalization numbers rebounded yesterday, but continue their inevitable bend towards peak today
* Census still tracking for 1/25 7DMA peak
* Testing still gone wild
* Cases decline, but likely one last peak coming
.
1/n
1/20 Testing

Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/10:
* Pos% @ 32.28%, testing @ 217K/day a record
* Positive tests @ 70K/day
* Pos% peak I'm estimating ~1/11 wont know for sure until Monday
* We start watching for signs of testing peak

2/n ImageImageImageImage
1/20 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by county
* Case 7DMA in slight decline, but still ~ 47K
* Still believe we have one more new case peak left. Based on past history, positive test conversion to cases as of 1/10, & dependent on when testing peaks in 2/n
.
3/n ImageImageImageImage
1/20 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* Even with a rebound yesterday in Admits, rate of growth declined from 12% on Mon to 9% today. Nose over imminent
* SETRAC Admit #s not out yet
* Houston Census has fully nosed over. Dallas is a few days out
* AUS & SAT nearly there as well
.
4/n ImageImageImageImage
1/20 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* % beds tagged as Covid @ 20.7%
* Census growth down to 17%, not worried about my prediction not making of 1/25 7DMA peak (originally 1/26).
* 13K 7DMA census peak is going to be pretty close. Might be 13.3K like I originally projected.

5/n ImageImageImageImage
1/20 Hospitalizations - Part 3

* ICU census at 2614
* Vents at 1494
* A post MLK rebound bumps the numbers up some but these will nose over a few days after general census. They are already starting a crest.
* These numbers will be significantly lower than 2020 Winter

6/n
. ImageImageImage
1/18 Conclusion

Peak is about here folks. By this time next week everything will be starting a steep decline. Cases might have one last gasp as case reporting is so laggy and batchy.

Otherwise Omicron is about to make its exit stage left. Buh Bye
.
7/end

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More from @therealarod1984

Jan 23
“Dopesick” is compulsory viewing because in this age of vaccine mandates – when anything short of unabashed adoration of Big Pharma & govt health agencies, as well as compulsive compliance with their edicts, leaves you ostracized from society…”

1/n

rt.com/op-ed/538714-t…
“Dopesick”…”lays bare the corrosive corruption of capitalism on “science” and exposes egregious government complicity with a pharmaceutical company that directly led to the tragedy of the opioid epidemic.”

2/n

rt.com/op-ed/538714-t…
“Remarkably, Purdue… got the FDA to allow the company to put a label on OxyContin saying that danger of addiction was extremely low, despite no studies showing this claim to be true. “

3/n

rt.com/op-ed/538714-t…
Read 6 tweets
Jan 22
1/22 Texas C19 Update: Here comes the Peak

THREAD:

* Covid Hosp Admits 7DMA cresting, this time for real (not MLK induced)
* Census still tracking for 1/25 7DMA peak
* Testing and Positives topped out ~8-10 days ago
* Still believing there is one last Case peak coming
.
1/n
1/22 Testing

Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/12:
* Pos% @ 32.75%, testing cresting @ 218K/day
* Positive tests cresting @ 71K/day
* Pos% peak will be between 1/11-14. Weekend arrivals are usually heavy negatives. Will know Monday

2/n ImageImageImageImage
1/22 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by county
* Case 7DMA hanging around at 48K
* Growth is stalled, but still waiting for the last final peak beyond 52K. Conversion percentage is still not to past case peaks, and still near 70K positives/day end of last week
.
3/n ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Jan 17
1/16 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* We may know after today if 1/8 or 1/11 is our positivity rate peak
* Testing and cases continue slow creep up, setting a new C19 record every time
* We are easily on pace for the 1/26 hospitalization peak I'm predicting

1/n
1/16 Testing

Tests filed by date specimen collected< 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/6:
* Pos rate 32.00%
* 1/8 peak mentioned last week appears to be re-forming
* 1/11 could also be peak, not enough testing in to say for certain
* Testing about to go 200K+ per day

2/n
.
1/16 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Case 7DMA~ 51K
* With testing & positives still increasing, probably some growth for cases still out there. Positives in 2/n are rising into the mid 60s, so some case growth into the mid 50s is likely
*
3/n
Read 7 tweets
Jan 14
1/14 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* Positivity rate still hovering @ 32%
* Testing and cases continue slow creep up, setting a new C19 record every time
* All the Hospitalization metrics continue cooling off, and cooling off very rapidly
1/n
1/14 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/4:
* Pos rate 32.02%, where its basically going to top out in the 32s. We will see on Monday if we can discern a hard peak.
* DSHS is receiving 1.3 million tests a week. #nuts

2/n
.
1/14 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Case 7DMA~ 48K
* Positive tests & rate in the next few days will determine if we go much beyond 48K
* % of positive test conversion to cases is up to 56% as of 1/4 & rising fast, also indicating peak is soon
.
3/n
Read 7 tweets
Jan 14
1/13 - Texas Hospitalization analysis by TSA

THREAD:

Couple of tweets here to break down the regions. Seeing growth rapidly decline, & with positivity rate already peaking per below, we likely don't see renewed growth. We are now watching for hospitalizations to nose over

1/n
First off we look at some indicators as to where things are headed

1) CDC chart, while recent days incomplete, growth is slowing & possible 1/8 peak
2) Admits 14DMA (longer term metric) has mostly nosed over
3) Admits 7DMA at 30% & falling
4) Hospital census growth falling

2/n
Now some regionals

SE TX Hospital Census growth is declining rapidly

* Houston, Galveston both are in steep declines. Again these are rate of growth charts, not census
* Southern Hill Country (San Antonio) & College Station are showing similar trends. Growth winding down

3/n
Read 6 tweets
Jan 14
1/13 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* 1/8 Positivity rate peak holds for 2nd straight day
* New Testing record
* Case 7DMA creeps up to new record
* Various Hospital metrics rate of growth continues strong decline
* Houston & SE Texas hospitalizations have already nosed over

1/n
1/13 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/3:
* Pos rate 31.79% but current 1/8 peak is 32.60%
* Positives @ 55K/day
* Testing @ 175K/day - new C19 record
* Pos rate peak could change, but 1st clear peak so far

2/n
.
1/13 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Case 7DMA~ 47K, new C19 record
* Rate of growth still declining
* The % of positive test conversion to cases is indicative of position in the wave. As of 1/3, that % is up to 49%, and shooting upwards.
,
3/n
Read 6 tweets

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