Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete
As of 1/15:
* Pos% rate peaked on 1/14, decline started on 1/15
* Testing peaked on 1/10
* Positive Tests peaked on 1/12
* Cases peaked on 1/17
* Color coded the table with that info
2/n .
1/25 Hospitalizations
* Admits 7DMA likely peaked on 1/20. 1/24 will be the end of its crest, tomorrow starts steep decline
* 1/24 General Census was a hard comp to MLK suppressed number. Tomorrow will begin full crest & rapid decent
* ICU & Vent will crest soon after
. 3/n
1/25 Conclusion
* Testing/Cases peaked in the various metrics between 1 & 2 weeks ago
* Predicted Census 7DMA peak of 1/25 (originally 1/26) is still very much in play. Likely 1/26 (in 2 days)
* As its just about on the downside, fatality & severity analysis is in my near future
• • •
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* Testing & Cases have already peaked. Will breakdown the dates they peaked in this thread
* Hospitalization Census may have already peaked, 7DMA still tracking with my near 2 week old prediction of peaking on 1/25
* Its downhill from here
Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete
As of 1/14:
* Pos% @ 32.90%, which will be peak for the wave
* Positive Tests appeared to peak on 1/12
* Testing appeared to peak on 1/10
* This informs Case peak estimate I'll make on 3/n
2/n
1/24 - Cases
* Case 7DMA big drop to at 46K. Now 7K behind 1/17 peak
* With both Testing in decline starting 1/10 & positivity rate starting 1/14, positive tests are only going down from there
* Case peak of 1/17 (due to batch reporting) likely holds based on the above
. 3/n
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* Covid Hosp Admits 7DMA cresting, this time for real (not MLK induced)
* Census still tracking for 1/25 7DMA peak
* Testing and Positives topped out ~8-10 days ago
* Still believing there is one last Case peak coming
.
1/n
1/22 Testing
Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete
As of 1/12:
* Pos% @ 32.75%, testing cresting @ 218K/day
* Positive tests cresting @ 71K/day
* Pos% peak will be between 1/11-14. Weekend arrivals are usually heavy negatives. Will know Monday
2/n
1/22 - Cases
* Cases batched by date received by county
* Case 7DMA hanging around at 48K
* Growth is stalled, but still waiting for the last final peak beyond 52K. Conversion percentage is still not to past case peaks, and still near 70K positives/day end of last week
. 3/n
* Hospitalization numbers rebounded yesterday, but continue their inevitable bend towards peak today
* Census still tracking for 1/25 7DMA peak
* Testing still gone wild
* Cases decline, but likely one last peak coming
. 1/n
Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete
As of 1/10:
* Pos% @ 32.28%, testing @ 217K/day a record
* Positive tests @ 70K/day
* Pos% peak I'm estimating ~1/11 wont know for sure until Monday
* We start watching for signs of testing peak
2/n
1/20 - Cases
* Cases batched by date received by county
* Case 7DMA in slight decline, but still ~ 47K
* Still believe we have one more new case peak left. Based on past history, positive test conversion to cases as of 1/10, & dependent on when testing peaks in 2/n
. 3/n
* We may know after today if 1/8 or 1/11 is our positivity rate peak
* Testing and cases continue slow creep up, setting a new C19 record every time
* We are easily on pace for the 1/26 hospitalization peak I'm predicting
Tests filed by date specimen collected< 8 days old is incomplete
As of 1/6:
* Pos rate 32.00%
* 1/8 peak mentioned last week appears to be re-forming
* 1/11 could also be peak, not enough testing in to say for certain
* Testing about to go 200K+ per day
2/n .
1/16 - Cases
* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Case 7DMA~ 51K
* With testing & positives still increasing, probably some growth for cases still out there. Positives in 2/n are rising into the mid 60s, so some case growth into the mid 50s is likely
* 3/n
* Positivity rate still hovering @ 32%
* Testing and cases continue slow creep up, setting a new C19 record every time
* All the Hospitalization metrics continue cooling off, and cooling off very rapidly 1/n
Tests filed by date of specimen collection < 8 days old is incomplete
As of 1/4:
* Pos rate 32.02%, where its basically going to top out in the 32s. We will see on Monday if we can discern a hard peak.
* DSHS is receiving 1.3 million tests a week. #nuts
2/n .
1/14 - Cases
* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Case 7DMA~ 48K
* Positive tests & rate in the next few days will determine if we go much beyond 48K
* % of positive test conversion to cases is up to 56% as of 1/4 & rising fast, also indicating peak is soon
. 3/n