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Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
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3 Jan, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Natural gas prices in Europe fell for a ninth straight day in the longest streak of losses in seven years (!) due in part to a jump in LNG deliveries📉📉

Global LNG exports surged to a record last month as projects boosted output, according to ship data

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
This is also another important factor 👇

Milder-than-normal winter weather is curbing demand for the heating fuel, allowing inventories to be refilled in Europe

Nevermind, European natural gas futures erased today’s losses and are now up 11%

(Volatility. Expect a whole lot of volatility this winter) Image
European gas prices surged as much as 20% today (but are now up just a measly 10%)

The market on edge as:

> Inventories are very low for this time of year
> Russian flows remain weak
> Some cold weather forecasts on the horizon
> A few signs of Asian spot buying interest Image
This helped lift European natural gas prices today 👇

Gas flows via a key route exiting Ukraine, through Velke Kapusany in Slovakia, dropped. Requests for the fuel fell 70% to the lowest level since February, according to system operator Eustream

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image

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More from @SStapczynski

Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
4 Jan
The US was the world’s biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas last month for the first time ever
🇺🇸🦅🥧🚢

American output edged slightly above Qatar in December due largely to a jump in exports from Sabine Pass and Freeport, according to ship data

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
The first American LNG cargo produced from shale gas was shipped in 2016, and the nation is expected to have the world’s largest export capacity by the end of 2022 after new units start up, according to @EIAgov

eia.gov/todayinenergy/… Image
The shale gas revolution, coupled with billions of dollars of investments in liquefaction facilities, transformed the US from a net LNG importer to a top exporter in less than a decade

US gas production has surged ~70% from 2010 as the nation unlocked shale reserves Image
Read 6 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
25 Dec 21
Russian natural gas flows to Europe remain weak 🇷🇺

There were no Gazprom shipments toward Mallnow, a key point on the Yamal-Europe transit route to Germany, for a fifth consecutive day

(Putin says this reflects a lack of requests from European clients)

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
Russian natural gas flows via Mallnow connection on Poland-German border are zero for sixth straight day Image
🥶
Read 6 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
24 Dec 21
European natural gas prices plummet after hitting record high this week 📉📉

That’s due in part to forecast for mild weather and more LNG deliveries, as well as traders curbing their position on high margin calls

More volatility is expected this winter

news.bloomberglaw.com/international-… Image
Europe is receiving a lot of LNG deliveries as suppliers divert cargoes away from Asia and other regions 🚢

European buyers are willing to pay more than rivals for spot shipments, making it a prime location for suppliers 💰
Despite the massive drop in European natural gas futures over the last two days, prices are still way higher than normal and very expensive for consumers

Until this year, TTF barely broke 30 euros/MWh. Now it is casually trading around 100 euros Image
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
21 Dec 21
🚨EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS PRICES SURGE TO NEW RECORD🚨

Dutch TTF futures topped 162 euros/MWh for the first time. Here are some of the reasons why:

> Lower flows via Russia
> Colder weather
> Nuclear outages
> Very low inventories
> LNG production issues

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
So how did we get here? 🤔

The writing had been on the wall for years

Since there was a lack of investment in 2017-18, supplies were already slated to be tight in the early 2020s

Investments in new upstream gas comes in cycles. And it takes years for LNG projects to start up
To make matters worse, utilities were lulled into a false sense of security in 2018 and 2019 due to milder-than-normal winters

Prices continued to fall due to the persistent supply glut. So utilities doubled down on cheap gas amid a shift away from coal

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 18 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
19 Dec 21
European natural gas traders are waiting for a cold snap that could see prices break new records 🥶 📈

Only a mild winter seems capable of alleviating the stress on the energy market as the world grapples with a fuel shortage

Via @rachelmorison

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The bad news:

The rest of December is set to be colder than usual and this will persist into January with widespread below average temperatures for the first two weeks ⛄️

Frigid cold weather means rolling blackouts could be a last resort ⚡️
Russian natural gas flows remain weak, exacerbating the supply crunch 🇷🇺

If Russian gas exports remain at current levels, Europe’s storage sites will be less than 15% full at the end of March, the lowest on record, according to consultant consultant Wood Mackenzie
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
19 Oct 21
Russia is willing to boost natural gas supplies to Europe, but only if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline receives regulatory approval to start shipments 🇷🇺 💥 🇪🇺

(Russia had long denied allegations that they were curbing supply in exchange for NS2 approval)

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
In exchange for upping supplies, Russia wants to get German/EU approval to begin using the pipeline to Europe, according to people close to Gazprom and the Kremlin

Russia is unlikely to agree to up supplies without assurances that the new pipeline will be allowed to operate
“We’re fulfilling all our contracts, all our obligations. Everything on top of that should be a subject for additional voluntary and mutually beneficial agreements,” said Konstantin Kosachyov, a pro-Kremlin legislator, said in an interview, without specifying what Russia seeks
Read 4 tweets

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