We’re gonna want to keep a sharp eye on this. There has been chatter about Russians poking around with undersea cables for years, and now they would have material reasons to take some kind of action. Not today, Putin. 👀
1/This is correct, and aligns with the Duginist bent of his actions and words. "Despite his professed nostalgia for the Soviet era, Vladimir Putin’s real inspiration is not the nominally internationalist USSR but the ultra-nationalist Czarist empire." atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
2/For a glimpse into this, look into this Dugin-Romanov fest from last fall which @NPR inexplicably decided to cover with a fawning puff piece. This right here is the network of real concern, ideologically. npr.org/2021/10/02/104…
3/Here's a Twitter account built on this Tsarist white-supremacist ideology itching for war in Ukraine. You might consider reporting it. I did. It's still up. twitter.com/ChrisCason14?s…
Note: "Russia is sharply reducing its reserves, which are stored in dollars, said Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. According to him, Washington, by its actions, itself undermines confidence in the American currency and makes it risky for international settlements."
This has been going on for a year. They are, through attacking the idea of money, the dollar, and making investments "unreal," trying to crush it. Crypto is a replay attack of the "MMM" Ponzi scheme they experienced in the 90's. So far they have not been very successful.
1/We should be preparing for ways the internet may be attacked. We rely heavily on stable global access to social media and news sites for sense-making and intelligence. That may be disrupted. Here are a few things we might expect in the coming weeks and months.
2/Ukraine may be cut off from the internet or restricted to Russia ASNs. While workarounds for that may be found, they may be fragile and temporary. Expect up to a full comms blackout from Ukraine for the standard internet. This may depend on Rus ability to control chokepoints.
3/Obviously everyone is expecting massive cyber attacks. That could attack critical infrastructure like power and transportation, but also could target US social media like Twitter or Facebook. We have seen that both are deeply vulnerable to attack.
1/We should see the last ~10 years “of a piece,” with many parallel operations designed to destabilize the west and build to this moment for Russia.
The rise of networked information warfare in Ukraine, the US, Europe and Australia. Perception hacking, reflexive control.
2/The 2014 invasion of Ukraine, to gain a foothold and spoil any NATO ambitions it may have had. Participation in US civil unrest. The injection of information payloads into countries worldwide. Interference in US politics and elections. The Trump years and January 6th.
3/The alliance with Berlin and placement of Germany into a position of strategic dependence on Russian gas. New alliances inside every European country. The Trump moves against NATO and the EU. The promotion of Assange, Snowden, Manning. Operations by Wagner Group/Prigozhin.
1/It is possible that Putin has made a fatal mistake. If he does not invade, he will lose face at home and then have to face his own people, internal unrest, and various usurpers.
The only way Putin can level the playing field to “succeed” in this confrontation is hybrid war.
2/This requires tactical surprise, and full activation of his global fifth column, to wage information war and spur localized hot confrontations in the West.
But Western counterintelligence knows who that network is. And they can legally monitor their foreign comms.
3/UK has already shown they are able and willing to get ahead of Putin by spoiling info ops and fifth column operations, in yesterday’s case inside Ukraine. There is a very large, low hanging catalog of players that could be pre-emptively exposed by Western counter-intel.
1/Cryptocurrencies are a social phenomenon driven by a few distinct factions of people, and drawing in recruits into what @FoldableHuman correctly calls a “self-organized high control group.” Here is how this works.
2/In the nucleus are the true believers, the people who read “The Sovereign Individual” (1997) and take it as gospel. This is Thiel, Musk, Sacks, Buterin etc and the people who directly orbit them; this network effectively birthed both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
3/Circling them are people who got rich on Web 1.0 and 2.0, and now want to do it again, but this time with fake internet money and “decentralization” schemes. This is the Saylor, Dixon, and the web3 VC opportunist crowd who follow trends. The Ayn Rand stuff is a bonus.