1/

Valuation for $TCEHY 40% stake it #EpicGames

Tencent acquired a 40% stake in Epic Games back in 2012. Well before #Fortnite became one of the most popular games of all-time
2/

Epic Games is still a private company so it is difficult to assign a valuation.

A group of Australian investors acquired a small stake at a US$42 Billion valuation in November 2021.
3/

The investors told reporters they had paid 8.3x TTM revenues.

They also said that according to material shown to them, they paid 6-8x NTM sales. This gives us an insight into revenue and expected growth for Epic Games.
4/

A 8.3 EV/S multiple might seem fair for a typical game developer. Although, Fortnite is losing popularity but they still have 350 million registered users.

But… Epic Games is far from just a game developer.
5/

Epic Games is the creator of the unreal gaming engine which is used by some of the most popular games and movies in the world for graphics and visual effects.

In my opinion the Unreal Engine is more valuable than the Fortnite brand.
6/

Other public engine technology companies like Roblox or Unity, trade at 25x and 30x sales respectively. Whilst gaming publishers such as Activision, Take Two or Electronic Arts trade at around 6-10x sales.
7/

Since Epic Games is a combination of both, we could assume that a fair multiple in today’s public markets might be ~15x sales, remembering it is a US company.

However we don’t know the revenue/profitability split of the game publishing vs. Unreal Engine.
8/

If Epic games went public and achieved a 15x sales multiple they would be a $70 billion company, which values Tencent’s stake at $30 billion. (~5% of Tencent’s market cap)

The Epic Games stake is a very interesting part of the $TCEHY investment portfolio.
9/

This thread is based on a segment from my ~5000 word write-up on $TCEHY that we be released on February the 1st.

Sign up to the newsletter for free to get the Tencent write-up straight to your inbox.

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Jan 28
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A $90m micro-cap, capital-light compounder $PDEX

Pro-Dex manufactures autoclavable, battery-powered, and electric multi-function surgical drivers and shavers used primarily in the orthopedic, thoracic, and maxocranial facial markets.
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Probably a difficult one to put in my 'circle of competence' but might be worth trying.

Larger customers contract $PDEX rather than building in-house. Pro-Dex saves them the hassle of getting FDA approval and the risk of wasting time and capital.
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Let me explain why Alibaba Cloud, which makes up just ~10% of LTM revenues, could become worth more than the entire current market cap by FY25
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They have ~38% market share of the cloud industry in China. Which is slightly more market share than AWS has in the US.
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If gross margins expand in FY22, it maybe be closer to 9-10x gross profit.
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Any others you can think of?
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Jan 21
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I’ve been re-reading through Joel Greenblatt’s class notes from his lectures.

Highly recommend for anyone who hasn’t read them. Thanks @FocusedCompound for making it easily accessible.

focusedcompounding.com/wp-content/upl…
2/

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Which is something I think most investors don’t consider.
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Jan 19
1/

Value of $TCEHY gaming business.

As of Q3 2021, 24% of total revenue came from domestic gaming & 8% from international gaming, so 32% overall.
2/

Tencent’s LTM revenue is $87b, therefore $27.8b came from gaming.

If we look at the $MSFT acquisition of $ATVI for $68.7b as a guide, they are paying 7.6x revenues for the gaming business.
3/

$TCEHY gaming business at 7.6x sales is worth $211 billion.

Tencent’s gaming business is a faster growing & higher quality business compared to $ATVI with a much lower customer acquisition cost and incredible exposure through WeChat & QQ.
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They have increased their position twice, now owning ~30%. The CIO of Phoenix, Gary Channon is temporary CEO at $DTY currently. Old management has been replaced.
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