Thread/

A $90m micro-cap, capital-light compounder $PDEX

Pro-Dex manufactures autoclavable, battery-powered, and electric multi-function surgical drivers and shavers used primarily in the orthopedic, thoracic, and maxocranial facial markets.
1/

Probably a difficult one to put in my 'circle of competence' but might be worth trying.

Larger customers contract $PDEX rather than building in-house. Pro-Dex saves them the hassle of getting FDA approval and the risk of wasting time and capital.
2/

Customer concentration is probably the biggest risk and the chance of any major customer developing in-house is definitely a threat.

$PDEX have recently doubled their R&D and lowering margins from 20% down to 11%. Recently increased manufacturing ability with a new building
3/

In the short-term this has hurt the bottom line. But could play a key role in improving products and creating new products to grow volumes with current customers and potentially even expand into new markets. Expansion into Europe could be a catalyst.
4/

$PDEX has grown revenues at a 15% CAGR over the past 5 years, whilst EBIT CAGR over the same period was a much more impressive ~30%. The average 5Y ROE is ~20%.

Over the past 18months they have spent a large amount of capex $9m, but ~$8m could be classed as 'growth' capex.
5/

Typical capex is less than $1m. For reference, they generated $38m in revenue in FY21.

If we normalise earnings with a ~20% margin, $PDEX is currently trading at 12x earnings. Albeit, adjustments need to made to make the valuation seem appealing.
6/

Applying lower, more conservative margins prices them at around ~15-18x earnings. Which is probably a fair valuation.

It is a high ROIC, capital-light business model likely to grow EPS in the high-teens whilst expanding their manufacturing capacity.
7/

But the customer concentration may justify the valuation. Being an illiquid micro-cap, the market may offer a better price in the future

Either way it's an interesting name to follow. I'm only at the surface and reasonable chance of passing due to being outside my circle.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Frank Taber

Frank Taber Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @frankinvesting

Jan 29
Thread/

Is Netflix cheap?

@BillAckman seems to think so, making a $1.1 Billion investment recently.

$NFLX is down ~36% YTD (19 trading days). Their market value is now $170 Billion.
1/

$NFLX stock was down ~20% in one day, after management warned subscriber growth would slow down significantly for the beginning of 2022.

Overall guidance was pessimistic and below analyst expectations.
2/

In a nutshell, the future value for $NFLX relies upon:

- Continuing to be dominant leaders in SVOD market (currently about double $DIS in subscribers).

- Expanding margins as less content spend is required to maintain & grow subscriber base.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 27
1/

Valuation for $TCEHY 40% stake it #EpicGames

Tencent acquired a 40% stake in Epic Games back in 2012. Well before #Fortnite became one of the most popular games of all-time
2/

Epic Games is still a private company so it is difficult to assign a valuation.

A group of Australian investors acquired a small stake at a US$42 Billion valuation in November 2021.
3/

The investors told reporters they had paid 8.3x TTM revenues.

They also said that according to material shown to them, they paid 6-8x NTM sales. This gives us an insight into revenue and expected growth for Epic Games.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 25
Thread/

$BABA cloud business is being completed missed by the market.

Let me explain why Alibaba Cloud, which makes up just ~10% of LTM revenues, could become worth more than the entire current market cap by FY25
1/

Alibaba Cloud made US$9.2 Billion in revenue for FY21 and grew 33% YoY.

They have ~38% market share of the cloud industry in China. Which is slightly more market share than AWS has in the US.
2/

In their investor presentation, $BABA projected that the cloud market in China will grow at a 37% CAGR until 2025.

The IDC estimated the CAGR to be 33% over the next 5 years.

The global cloud market is estimated to grow at 17.5% annually.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 24
1/

$SPOT is a dominant market leader in music streaming, above $GOOGL, $AAPL & $AMZN.

They are also now market leader in podcasts, taking over $AAPL last year.
2/

After a 46% decline from ATH, $SPOT now trades at ~3x NTM sales and ~11x NTM gross profit.

If gross margins expand in FY22, it maybe be closer to 9-10x gross profit.
3/

@TSOH_Investing made an interesting point of $SPOT possibly being the only company below a $50 Billion market cap with the potential of reaching 1 billion MAU.

Any others you can think of?
Read 8 tweets
Jan 21
1/

I’ve been re-reading through Joel Greenblatt’s class notes from his lectures.

Highly recommend for anyone who hasn’t read them. Thanks @FocusedCompound for making it easily accessible.

focusedcompounding.com/wp-content/upl…
2/

In lecture 3, Greenblatt discusses why value investing works. He brings up the mean reversion of ROE.

Which is something I think most investors don’t consider.
3/

The reasoning for ROE mean reversion is pretty simple. High ROE companies attract competitors that eventually take profits away.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 19
1/

Value of $TCEHY gaming business.

As of Q3 2021, 24% of total revenue came from domestic gaming & 8% from international gaming, so 32% overall.
2/

Tencent’s LTM revenue is $87b, therefore $27.8b came from gaming.

If we look at the $MSFT acquisition of $ATVI for $68.7b as a guide, they are paying 7.6x revenues for the gaming business.
3/

$TCEHY gaming business at 7.6x sales is worth $211 billion.

Tencent’s gaming business is a faster growing & higher quality business compared to $ATVI with a much lower customer acquisition cost and incredible exposure through WeChat & QQ.
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(