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Jan 27 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
This report by @business is just great! Congress ownership of tech makes tech regulations awkward! Guess who owns a ton of tech? @SpeakerPelosi

And will she regulate? So far, she's not keen to! She doesn't want to regulate tech. We wonder why...

>100 million dollars invested🤗
Asked by reporters whether she should regulate tech, she responded, "We are a free-market economy." And she hated the idea.

I wonder why? >100 million dollars at stake for her
Congressional trading persists!!! Yes, persists! This is a person that has been around in government since the 1980s and is seeking re-election at 81 years old whose family own >100 million dollars in tech.

Do we have a conflict of interest here? Do we? Hmm
Bill that is bipartisan to regulate tech:

American Innovation and Choice Online Act

Introduced by Amy Klobuchar and Chuck Grassley to curb the power of 4 tech giants: Amazon, Apply, Alphabet and Meta (FB).

These companies favor their products, sapping innovation.

So? Well.
Do we have a conflict of interest for Congress? Well, Nancy Pelosi husband owns 25.5 million in Apple stock.

Why does she hate regulating it? Well, well, well.

Republicans own too. Mike McCaul has less but defo a lot at >8m. Congress had 315 stocks & bond transactions!!!

So?
Congress, just like the Fed, are the ultimate insiders. Should they be allowed to trade while at the same time supposedly looking out for Americans' interest???

Well, great report! Fantastic! A hundred million reasons why she's against it! Should have been the title!
Btw, this infographic is not drawn to scale. We go from very little to basically 5 million dollars and above.

But the size of Pelosi's tech stake is >100 millions vs the almost equal in size Mike McCaul at about 8m.

To scale, Pelosi's tech stake would be >10 times or massive!

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More from @Trinhnomics

Trinh Profile picture
Jan 27
Good morning! Shall we talk about US Q4 GDP? It was gangbuster at 5.5% YoY (we use this to compare to Asian countries) or this is what Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020. Nominal GDP grew 11.7%YoY and so US nominal GDP expanded 10.2% in 2021.

Fed is still doing QE & rates are close to zero.👈 Image
I compare the quarterly %YoY chart here of the US nominal, US real and China real GDP. Note that as China decelerates towards 4% in Q4, US GDP accelerated to 5.5%.

Last year, the US grew 5.7% in 2021 vs 2020 (which fell -3.4% vs 2019) so a lot of it is making up for lost time. Image
US nominal GDP was USD22.99trn or USD23trn (good number to remember so when people say this is X% of GDP). And so it added 2.1trn or 10% in 2021 to total 23trn by end of the year.

Now what does that say about 2022? If consensus is right, going to be about 25trn by end of this yr
Read 5 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
Jan 27
Okay, let's go through the Fed because markets are vomiting in Asia over the hawkish Q&A of the meeting yesterday🤮🤮🤮. As I say always, the Fed never promises you a rose garden & may change quickly (to ease or to tight).

Well, wut did le Fed say? A lot, for one, March hike &
After March hike, there will be more, and then it talked about BS normalization (no, not that BS, the balance sheet)!!!

And then it said inflation is high & getting WORSE (not transitory my friend, not transitory, as I told u before).
Ok, so we know markets priced hikes but BS?
No details yet on balance sheet normalization but a few clues how it will do it. First, we know the dollar is KING and it matters. And then Fed just said it will RAISE the price of the dollar & so cash is less trashy. And more! It will not just taper (still doing QE) but TIGHTEN.
Read 8 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
Jan 12
China CPI and PPI fall more than expected, eyes are on growth and that means lower inflationary pressures paves way for more support, which is needed!
Help needed: GDP downgrades are coming for China GDP (consensus is 5.2% and that is a mix of bulls and bears). Many have forecasts under 5%. Image
Sub 5% forecasts👇🇨🇳 Image
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
Jan 6
Good morning, JPO never promised you a rose garden & the Fed minutes show a sharp hawkish turn on inflation.

Why is it doing that? Inflation is politically toxic so the Fed, being behind the curve, isn't going to do nothing about it & this hawkish tilt is self preservation. And?
Markets listened to this hawkish tilt as the Fed reaches a consensus to be all out on fighting inflation & save its credibility 👨‍🚒🔥🚒🧯

Rates sold off (yields higher). Short end expects more hikes & longer end also sold off as yield reaches 1.7%.

Look at Asian rates - HIGHER!
Australia is interesting as more is priced in as well & basically markets calling the RBA bluff of no hike (consensus is QE to be removed in Feb). Look at South Korea (we only expect 50bps) but markets moved up to 94bps.

Fed + inflation > Omicron fear, our base line scenario👈
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
Jan 5
Happy New Year: So far in Asia, we have the same winners in 2022 as in 2021 and the same losers are doing badly.

Chinese listed stocks in Hong Kong falling while India, Taiwan, Indonesia, Vietnam are up! Image
Commodities are up, especially food. Oil up too, now 80/barrel.

Dollar is up, yield is up, and inflation is now more key than growth concerns. Why? Look at this chart. Image
US cases & deaths in five days (net change). Cases exploding but deaths are actually lower (yes, I know it is lagging but so far hospitalization, esp ICU, points to likely lower fatality).

The way it surges in the US, likely reaching herd immunity rather fast. Image
Read 8 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
Dec 31, 2021
Ok, this is my last thread of 2021 & I'll talk about something that is MOST valuable in global exports - semiconductor - or chips, that powers the modern world. This is also very topical as we use it in our daily lives & at the center of politics & geopolitics given its shortages
In case you are wondering why we should know more about this most valuable global export item (worth about USD1trn & more valuable than oil), then we must not forget that in order for me to tweet this, we need chips. If we use the body analogy, chips = brain & oil is like blood.
Let's start with definition:
a) Semiconductor or in UN classification is known as cathode values & tubes & USD949bn was traded in global exports
b) It's a manufactured good & an INTERMEDIATE
c) U don't see it in the final product but products like CARS & laptops & mobiles need it Image
Read 25 tweets

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