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12 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
China CPI and PPI fall more than expected, eyes are on growth and that means lower inflationary pressures paves way for more support, which is needed!
Help needed: GDP downgrades are coming for China GDP (consensus is 5.2% and that is a mix of bulls and bears). Many have forecasts under 5%. Image
Sub 5% forecasts👇🇨🇳 Image
It's only fair to share the bullish views 🤗🤗🇨🇳👇 Image

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More from @Trinhnomics

Trinh Profile picture
6 Jan
Good morning, JPO never promised you a rose garden & the Fed minutes show a sharp hawkish turn on inflation.

Why is it doing that? Inflation is politically toxic so the Fed, being behind the curve, isn't going to do nothing about it & this hawkish tilt is self preservation. And?
Markets listened to this hawkish tilt as the Fed reaches a consensus to be all out on fighting inflation & save its credibility 👨‍🚒🔥🚒🧯

Rates sold off (yields higher). Short end expects more hikes & longer end also sold off as yield reaches 1.7%.

Look at Asian rates - HIGHER!
Australia is interesting as more is priced in as well & basically markets calling the RBA bluff of no hike (consensus is QE to be removed in Feb). Look at South Korea (we only expect 50bps) but markets moved up to 94bps.

Fed + inflation > Omicron fear, our base line scenario👈
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
5 Jan
Happy New Year: So far in Asia, we have the same winners in 2022 as in 2021 and the same losers are doing badly.

Chinese listed stocks in Hong Kong falling while India, Taiwan, Indonesia, Vietnam are up! Image
Commodities are up, especially food. Oil up too, now 80/barrel.

Dollar is up, yield is up, and inflation is now more key than growth concerns. Why? Look at this chart. Image
US cases & deaths in five days (net change). Cases exploding but deaths are actually lower (yes, I know it is lagging but so far hospitalization, esp ICU, points to likely lower fatality).

The way it surges in the US, likely reaching herd immunity rather fast. Image
Read 8 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
31 Dec 21
Ok, this is my last thread of 2021 & I'll talk about something that is MOST valuable in global exports - semiconductor - or chips, that powers the modern world. This is also very topical as we use it in our daily lives & at the center of politics & geopolitics given its shortages
In case you are wondering why we should know more about this most valuable global export item (worth about USD1trn & more valuable than oil), then we must not forget that in order for me to tweet this, we need chips. If we use the body analogy, chips = brain & oil is like blood.
Let's start with definition:
a) Semiconductor or in UN classification is known as cathode values & tubes & USD949bn was traded in global exports
b) It's a manufactured good & an INTERMEDIATE
c) U don't see it in the final product but products like CARS & laptops & mobiles need it Image
Read 25 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
30 Dec 21
Good morning! Rates markets are on the march in the last few days of the year and are you listening👂?

It whispers, "I'm less afraid of Omicron & more fearful of inflation."

Shorter end added 2bps pt to hike bets (3 total in 2022) & longer end less flat.
Let's look beyond US rates to Asian markets & that includes equities, forex, govies, and commodities.

What do you see here? Risk markets say:

a) Not afraid of Omicron (Mongolia is special as it's like super commodity driven) as even Thailand is up & it's very sensitive to Covid
b) The dollar is down versus Asian FX month to date despite of news on Omicron being ominous, which means markets are OK with taking some risks
c) Yields up ex China, Australia & Thailand (China easing & AU linked via commodity)
d) Have you seen commodities? Very up!!! 👇👇👇
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
29 Dec 21
Good morning Asia!!! 🌞@trinhnomics is 1 age older today & not sure wiser but defo happier as the years go by. Will share some reflect of what I have learned in 2021 as we prepare for 2022 that's coming imminently. Life is glorious & to be lived!

Let's look at rates' markets!
This is derived from MIPR Go on the bloomie & basically using what markets are pricing in to see what it expects in 1 year.

How to read this? Well, u look at total change & u see expectations of HIGHER rates in 2022. How high? +72bps for USD 🇺🇸.

But it isn't a lonely hiker!
U may say, well who cares Trinh. Interest rate minterest rates! But u know this is the price of $ & the price of the dollar percolates globally because it determines whether cash is trash or not. If the price is > zero then it makes it more interesting to hold it. $ is relative.
Read 9 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
23 Dec 21
Are u ready? Let's follow the money & specifically where did you deploy your capital in 2021?

Did u buy Turkey on the dip? WORST INDEX IN 2021 thanks to a weaker TRY as well (return in USD).

Second worst? Hang Seng Chinese listed firms. 🇨🇳🇭🇰🤮🤢

Best? Vietnam & the US🇺🇸🇻🇳😎🥳
2021 return from best to worst:
🇻🇳Vietnam +35% (People love it)
🇦🇷Argentina (real return sucks due to high CPI) 34%
🇺🇸USA 26% (Nasdaq) & 25% SPX (tech + liquidity)
🇹🇼Taiwan 22% (semiconductor + growth)
🇮🇳India 17% (improving econ + diversify from China)
🇷🇺Russia 15% (commodity)
🇲🇽Mexico 15%
🇬🇧UK 11%
🇨🇳Chinese onshore tech (Shenzhen) 11%
🇪🇺Eurostoxx 10%
🇨🇳Onshore Chinese industrials 7%
🇦🇺Australia 5%
🇵🇱Poland 2%

Note that this includes FX as it is in USD.
Read 4 tweets

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