Thread by @robfordmancs

The highest ever Green share in general elections England and Wales was 4%. There are strong reasons to expect quite a lot of tactical squeeze of Green votes if Cons remain as unpopular as now. Could add several points to apparent Lab lead.

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1486686068032172036

This is a mirror image scenario to Cons and UKIP in 2010-15 - Con position looked weaker than it was because of the "revolt on the right" in the polls - but a lot of the blue to purple rebels got squeezed back at election time (in part due to a referendum promise...)

Now its Labour who can apply the squeeze. An incumbent who is toxic on the liberal left will help with that, but negative views of Starmer might be a barrier among Green voters, not all of whom will be willing to vote tactically

Another wrinkle to this story will be Lab (and Green) to LD tactical voting in the now large swathe of seats where LDs are second. A very unpopular Con incumbent govt can drive v strong tactical co-ordination in such seats, s we saw in 1997. Big vote to squeeze in many of them.

The potential for Lab to squeeze Greens should be one thing which gives Con MPs urging Johnson to ditch net zero/green agenda pause. Green voters will be more willing to back Lab if the alternative is nothing at all from Con govt on their most important issue.