Thread by @robfordmancs

A short thread on all time low ratings for each Con and Lab leader in each Parliament covered by the IPSOS-MORI polling database (1977-date), to place Johnson's figures in some context

https://twitter.com/KellyIpsosMORI/status/1486699579580071938

Con leaders since 77:
Thatcher (O): -13 (Nov 78)
Thatcher (G1): -41 (Dec 81)
Thatcher (G2): -38 (Aug 86)
Thatcher (G3): -56 (Mar 90)
Major (G1): +4 (Feb 92)
Major (G2): -59 (Aug 94)
Hague (O): -37 (Jan 00)
IDS (O): -37 (Feb 03)
Howard (O): -26 (Jan 05)
Cameron (O): -22 (Sep 07)

Cameron (G1): -30 (Mar 13)
Cameron (G2): -38 (Jul 16)
May (G1): -7 (May 17)
May (G2): -44 (Jun 19)
Johnson: -46 (Jan 22)

So in terms of Con leaders over the last 45 years, Johnson's rating this month falls below the lowest rating hit by anyone except Thatcher (post-poll tax) with -56 and Major (post ERM) with -59. He is below the lowest ever ratings for May, Cameron & all Con oppo ldrs 97-2010

Now here are the Lab ldr figures for 1977-date:
Callaghan (G): -31 (Jan 79)
Callaghan (O): -7 (Aug 80)
Foot (O): -56 (Aug 82)
Kinnock (O1): -30 (Mar 87)
Kinnock (O2): -34 (Dec 88)
Smith (O): -8 (May 93)
Blair (O): +7 (Sep 96)
Blair (G1): -31 (Sep 00)
Blair (G2): -34 (Jul 04)

Blair (G3): -43 (Jan 07)
Brown (G): -51 (Jul 08)
Miliband (O): -44 (Apr 13)
Corbyn (O1): -41 (Jul 16)
Corbyn (O2): -60 (Sep 19)
Starmer (O): -20 (Jun 21)

Among Labour leaders, only Foot in middle of SDP split, Brown during depths of financial crisis and Corbyn during crescendo of Brexit crisis have sunk lower than Johnson has fallen so far.

Combining the lists, here's the all time worst ratings for either party's leaders across 45 years of MORI polls:
1.Corbyn (Sep 19): -60
2.Major (Aug 94): -59
3=Thatcher (Mar 90): -56
3= Foot (Aug 82): -56
5. Brown (Jul 08): -51
6. Johnson (Jan 22): -46

One interesting Q of obvious relevance to now is whether a leader can recover from ratings as bad as Johnson's are now? The answer generally seems to be "no". Corbyn, Major, Brown and Foot all went on to heavy defeats at the next GE. Thatcher was removed.

May and Cameron posted their lowest ratings shortly before departing as leader (as did Blair in his third term).

The only example of a leader slumping to worse than -40 and recovering to win is Thatcher in 1979-1983 - she hit this rating in the middle of a deep recession, and benefitted from a successful war, a strong recovery and a divided opposition when running two years later