Rob Ford Profile picture
Jan 27 11 tweets 2 min read
A short thread on all time low ratings for each Con and Lab leader in each Parliament covered by the IPSOS-MORI polling database (1977-date), to place Johnson's figures in some context
Con leaders since 77:
Thatcher (O): -13 (Nov 78)
Thatcher (G1): -41 (Dec 81)
Thatcher (G2): -38 (Aug 86)
Thatcher (G3): -56 (Mar 90)
Major (G1): +4 (Feb 92)
Major (G2): -59 (Aug 94)
Hague (O): -37 (Jan 00)
IDS (O): -37 (Feb 03)
Howard (O): -26 (Jan 05)
Cameron (O): -22 (Sep 07)
Cameron (G1): -30 (Mar 13)
Cameron (G2): -38 (Jul 16)
May (G1): -7 (May 17)
May (G2): -44 (Jun 19)
Johnson: -46 (Jan 22)
So in terms of Con leaders over the last 45 years, Johnson's rating this month falls below the lowest rating hit by anyone except Thatcher (post-poll tax) with -56 and Major (post ERM) with -59. He is below the lowest ever ratings for May, Cameron & all Con oppo ldrs 97-2010
Now here are the Lab ldr figures for 1977-date:
Callaghan (G): -31 (Jan 79)
Callaghan (O): -7 (Aug 80)
Foot (O): -56 (Aug 82)
Kinnock (O1): -30 (Mar 87)
Kinnock (O2): -34 (Dec 88)
Smith (O): -8 (May 93)
Blair (O): +7 (Sep 96)
Blair (G1): -31 (Sep 00)
Blair (G2): -34 (Jul 04)
Blair (G3): -43 (Jan 07)
Brown (G): -51 (Jul 08)
Miliband (O): -44 (Apr 13)
Corbyn (O1): -41 (Jul 16)
Corbyn (O2): -60 (Sep 19)
Starmer (O): -20 (Jun 21)
Among Labour leaders, only Foot in middle of SDP split, Brown during depths of financial crisis and Corbyn during crescendo of Brexit crisis have sunk lower than Johnson has fallen so far.
Combining the lists, here's the all time worst ratings for either party's leaders across 45 years of MORI polls:
1.Corbyn (Sep 19): -60
2.Major (Aug 94): -59
3=Thatcher (Mar 90): -56
3= Foot (Aug 82): -56
5. Brown (Jul 08): -51
6. Johnson (Jan 22): -46
One interesting Q of obvious relevance to now is whether a leader can recover from ratings as bad as Johnson's are now? The answer generally seems to be "no". Corbyn, Major, Brown and Foot all went on to heavy defeats at the next GE. Thatcher was removed.
May and Cameron posted their lowest ratings shortly before departing as leader (as did Blair in his third term).
The only example of a leader slumping to worse than -40 and recovering to win is Thatcher in 1979-1983 - she hit this rating in the middle of a deep recession, and benefitted from a successful war, a strong recovery and a divided opposition when running two years later

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More from @robfordmancs

Jan 28
Labour holding a substantial lead as best party on immigration is a very unusual situation - Cons reputation as party of immigration control has given them solid leads on this issue going back to the late 1960s
The current Labour lead likely reflects confluence of two trends:
1. Cons lost their big advantage on imm control during coalition (failed "tens of thousands" pledge), never really regained it.
2. Steady and substantial growith in pro-imm electorate, who want *less* control
Conservative right's preference is to target (1) by going after refugees crossing the channel. Problem with this is twofold. First, it may fail to deliver as a policy, further hurting govt with strongly pro-control voters (as net migration pledge did duing coalition).
Read 5 tweets
Jan 27
The highest ever Green share in general elections England and Wales was 4%. There are strong reasons to expect quite a lot of tactical squeeze of Green votes if Cons remain as unpopular as now. Could add several points to apparent Lab lead.
This is a mirror image scenario to Cons and UKIP in 2010-15 - Con position looked weaker than it was because of the "revolt on the right" in the polls - but a lot of the blue to purple rebels got squeezed back at election time (in part due to a referendum promise...)
Now its Labour who can apply the squeeze. An incumbent who is toxic on the liberal left will help with that, but negative views of Starmer might be a barrier among Green voters, not all of whom will be willing to vote tactically
Read 5 tweets
Jan 26
Big news in one sense - he's the oldest liberal member of US Supreme Court, so his retirement will enable Biden to lock in the current ideological split while he still narrowly controls Senate
Justices in descending order of age:

Breyer (Liberal, 83)
Thomas (Con, 71)
Alito (Con, 71)
Sotomayor (Lib, 67)
Roberts (Con, Chief, 66)
Kagan (Lib, 61)
Kavanaugh (Con, 56)
Gorsuch (Con, 54)
Coney Barrett (Con, 49)
Assuming Biden appoints someone around 45-55 yrs old (as per recent picks), then could be a while until there's another seat vacant given high status professionals can expect to live well into their 80s.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 26
IIRC two recent MPs have ended up losing their seats due to being caught speeding and then lying about it.

I also think most voters would (rightly) conclude that breaking lockdown and then lying about it is a more serious matter than running through a speed gun & lying abt it.
The personal sacrifices involved in following lockdown rules were far greater than those involved in following speed limit. I’m not sure voters who were separated from dying relatives or unable to attend funerals will buy “but this is a minor infraction, like a speeding ticket.”
Chris Huhne - Cabinet minister who lost his seat and went to jail for getting a speeding ticket, then lying about who was driving:

theguardian.com/uk/2013/mar/11…
Read 5 tweets
Jan 20
Another eventful 24 hrs. Quick thread on some of the reasons why, despite the first Con to Lab defection since the Blair years, and first call for Johnson to resign from a senior figure (David Davis, former Brexit secretary and leadership contender), Johnson looks more secure 1/?
The defection paradox: Having an MP join the opposition looks even worse than having an MP call for your resignation. But it isn't. MPs calling for a change of leader can see this as loyalty to party over leader. But defection to the opposition is betrayal, pure and simple
The stories have dried up: As far as I can see there have been no new revelations of parties since late last week. The most destabilising events this week have been reactions to stories already out there - Cummings' accusation, Johnson's interview with Beth Rigby
Read 19 tweets
Jan 19
So, despite a long eventful day, maybe we still are still a little way from the moment of truth? Always easier to delay than decide.
Read 4 tweets

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