Thread by @robfordmancs

Another eventful 24 hrs. Quick thread on some of the reasons why, despite the first Con to Lab defection since the Blair years, and first call for Johnson to resign from a senior figure (David Davis, former Brexit secretary and leadership contender), Johnson looks more secure 1/?

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1483725852982534145

The defection paradox: Having an MP join the opposition looks even worse than having an MP call for your resignation. But it isn't. MPs calling for a change of leader can see this as loyalty to party over leader. But defection to the opposition is betrayal, pure and simple

The stories have dried up: As far as I can see there have been no new revelations of parties since late last week. The most destabilising events this week have been reactions to stories already out there - Cummings' accusation, Johnson's interview with Beth Rigby

It is unclear if this relative quiet reflects all the controversial events known about now being in the public domain, or a decision by journalists and editors to wait for the Sue Gray report before taking further stories public

The latter might make sense on two grounds - revelations now will swiftly be pushed out of the news by the report, whereas if journalists have stories which either expand upon or contradict Gray's findings, that will be a massive deal once that report is out.

The Cummings factor: Cummings' accusation is a double edged sword. On one hand, misleading the House is a resignation matter. On the other hand, absent cut & dried evidence it shifts the story from Johnson vs the rules to Johnson vs Cummings - & the latter isn't trusted either

"Who do you believe? The fool or the knave?"

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1483818701589786625?s=20

The bleeding in the polls has slowed: The Cons and Johnson have slumped in the polls, and the latest ones show no recovery. But they don't show any further slippage either. That may lessen the sense of crisis & urgency

For example:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1483754747710562305?s=20

The Micawber factor: Regicide is hard. Most Con MPs are relatively inexperienced (a majority joined the Commons since 2015). For many the desire to wait & see what turns up rather than take a controversial & risky stance which burns bridges with colleagues must be strong.

The lack of further dramatic revelations may have stayed the hand of unhappy waverers, as may the defection yesterday. And there are reasons to wait - Sue Gray, energy price rises, local elections, candidates for succession need time to prepare

All of this could change v swiftly. The sword of Damocles is still hanging over Johnson by a slender thread - he is unpopular and the public emphatically reject his account of events. At present it still looks like a case of "when, not if" re: either resignation or a challenge

And the 1922 Committee look likely to change the rules to fray the thread further - by enabling Johnson to be challenged again after 6 months if he prevails in the first confidence vote. Thus enabling MPs to put him on notice, then finish the job later this year if necessary

Leaders are resilient figures - they have to be to get to the top. Johnson has bounced before. But I suspect some, perhaps most, of the damage to his personal brand is now permanent. Con MPs have to decide is a tainted Boris is still a better bet than the alternatives. /ends/

One longer-run problem for Johnson - the two factors which drove his big win in 2019 - desire to "Get Brexit Done" and fear of Corbyn-led government - are no longer available. He needs an agenda for renewal but any feasible agenda risks antagonising part of his unweildy coalition

Cut taxes/cut regulation/"Singapore-on-Sea" - delights economically right wing activists and traditional Con MPs in traditional seats, but will enrage the new MPs in Midlands/North promised big spending on investment and "levelling up"

Spend big, build big, "level up" - delights the new MPs, but upsets the traditionalists who ideologically oppose big state and higher taxes.

When Johnson's personal stock was riding high, he could probably ride out unease from one faction or another. But now (like Theresa May in 2018/19) he has to make decisions which will annoy some MPs, and they have no incentive at all to grin & bear it.

Given Johnson already has an engrained tendency to U-turn under pressure, that wld suggest if he does survive, we will have a period of messy statsis ahead, as govt flip flops and goes round in circles under the cross-pressures of an internally incoherent coalition