Thread by @althecat

CNN has just had @StateDeptSpox Ned Price on, saying that if Russia invades Ukraine, the Russia-Germany Gas pipeline Nordstream 2 (completed - not online - opposed by US) will not proceed.

#UKRAINE #UkraineStandoff

@StateDeptSpox This is not exactly new news as it was reported yesterday by NPR and covered by @Reuters yesterday. So @CNN is today matching the story.
reuters.com/business/energ…

The remarks were made by @StateDeptSpox in this report from @NPR at 4.25pm US ET (10.25pm last night EU CEST). And in this case - with things moving so fast - the timing may actually be important.

@SecBlinken's briefing and announcement on this came at 12pm US ET (6pm CEST).

For example there was a broadcast last night at around the same time - which did not discuss this point, perhaps because @SecBlinken himself also did not mention Nord Stream 2 in his briefing. (state.gov/secretary-anto…)
france24.com/en/tv-shows/th…

Technically what Price says here is true. Nord Stream 2 is not yet turned on. And the idea of it being used as bargaining collateral for use by Europe to stop Russia has also been raised in the past.

The UK Defence Minister when visiting Europe Wednesday also raised the idea.

This was the the day following (i,e Tuesday night) a French and German leaders held a press conference which appeared to be seeking a bit of a reset in the standoff.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1486489295179460609?s=20

A week earlier the nearly brand new German Chancellor (he assumed office mid December) appeared to open the door to the pipeline being used as leverage in this conflict in a press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. politico.eu/article/olaf-s…

Quotes: "It is clear that there will be a high cost and that all this will have to be discussed if there is a military intervention against Ukraine," Scholz said.

He also said he "stands by all aspects" of an agreement about this between Merkle and Biden from last year.

And on the same day (quotes below from the @Politico report) German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock went to Russia to try to calm things down. A mission which clearly failed.

@politico The thing is though. Since last Tuesday there has been a fair amount of water go under the bridge. And the US/EU relationship has this week appeared to fray. And the Nord Stream 2 pipeline - which Germany needs and which the US opposes - has always been a faultline in this.

@politico While @SecBlinken said yesterday (as the NATO allies projected unity) that the U.S. is working on some kind of energy security plan to cope without Russian Gas, it is not clear how feasible this is, and it all looks a bit too much like last minute scrambling.

@politico @SecBlinken The German Chancellor is unlikely to publicly contradict the State Dept. on this point, but its notable (to me anyway) that @SecBlinken did not mention Nord Stream in his announcement, but then Ned Price did, echoing the phraseology of the UK's EU emissary.

@politico @SecBlinken The full import of what happened on Tuesday night with Scholz and Macron is unclear. Last night all this was discussed in some detail by a well informed panel on @France24.

@politico @SecBlinken @FRANCE24 While the German's may well have agreed to Nord Stream being used as a bargaining chip in principle, that doesn't mean they are necessarily that keen for it to be used as the tip of the spear.

@politico @SecBlinken @FRANCE24 The @France24 panel discussion can be viewed here >>

Liana FIX, Resident Fellow, German Marshall Fund comments on the German perspective on all this on the panel.
france24.com/en/tv-shows/th…

@politico @SecBlinken @FRANCE24 I may be reading too much into this.

But from what I can see on the Western side of this standoff the leading NATO partners - UK, US, Germany and France - are not speaking with one voice.

Right now the US and UK seem to be trying to force the pace.

While Germany and France appear to be wanting to slow things down - and would like to see more Europe-Russian dialogue happening.

Macron (who in the past has described NATO as being braindead) is now scheduled to speak directly to Putin on Friday - a week after Sec. Blinken spoke to Russian FM Lavrov in Switzerland.

Russia has now responded to @SecBlinken's written responses, they are not happy, but "working level" discussions will continue and Biden and Putin may talk directly later.

^^ this report suggests that @EmmanuelMacron is now trying to crash the anticipated/announced US-Russian discussions on behalf of Europe in his capacity as President of the European Council.

On the face of things, if Macron has the support of the European Council for this request it would seem hard for him to be excluded one would thing, especially as the US has now started saying: "Nothing about Europe without Europe" rather a lot.

Never have the national broadcasting arms of Europe been put to so much work. To complete the club of participants in all this (excluding the UK for now) here is last night's @dwnews report.

@dwnews . @France24 & @dwnews's reports both talk up the yesterday's 8 hours of Normandy Format (Minsk Agreement) talks in Paris (focussed on the Donbass standoff in Eastern Ukraine) - which concluded apparently with an agreement for more discussions in a fortnight in Berlin.

A commentator in the discussion compares the situation with the Cuban Missile Crisis in the 1960s, pointing out that Khrushchev had achieved a concession in that standoff in terms of the removal of some nuclear missiles from Europe.

DW also reports on NATO's announcement, pointing specifically to Nato's Jen Stoltenberg's call to improve dialogue on both sides by re-establishing diplomatic missions for Russia and the EU in Brussels and Moscow. (direct link >> ).

The most important things here seem to be the establishment of additional guard rails around this standoff - another Minsk Agreement meeting in a fortnight takes us to the Eve of the Winter Olympics on February 3rd.

And presumably - if Russia has agreed to attend - then that means it won't invade Ukraine or do anything else provocative till at least then.

A second @dwnews bulletin was broadcast this morning - featuring lots of pictures of snow and cold weather. Its a shorter bulletin expanding on the one last night, with a Ukrainian spokesman delivering the readout on yesterday's Normandy Format talks.

In a live cross to Moscow a correspondent quotes a Russian spokesman pointing out that it took the US two months to produce its written statement - implying that they might take their time to respond.

In the correspondent's view Russia will "not take any rash decisions".

Lavrov has also responded now - via @RT_com.

@RT_com A new @France24 report on the Lavrov remarks concludes that Russia is keeping the door open for further discussions - and says he will talk more with @SecBlinken.

But notes that the Kremlin's "bad cop" Dimitri Peskov - has called the talks with the U.S. and NATO "not good enough."

reuters.com/world/kremlin-…

Rarely have I ever seen a news story move as rapidly as this one. The DW correspondent's comparison with the Cuban Missile Crisis will I think get a decent outing in coming hours.

/ENDS

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