THREAD: Something curious turns up in the gas statistics released this morning by government
Curious because at a time of eye-wateringly high gas prices, with Vladimir Putin at the Ukraine's door, with warnings of dire outcomes everywhere and the oil industry telling us that continuing UK oil and gas extraction is necessary for energy security ogauthority.co.uk/news-publicati…
...at a time when politicians like @RobertJenricktelegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/2… are urging 'us' to increase 'our production' of oil and gas to avoid exposure to internationally-sparked price hikes...
...against this rhetorical backdrop painting British-produced gas as the only commodity standing between us and every Apocalyptic horseman...
...the stats show that the UK has been exporting unusually large amounts of gas. Yes, you read that right - exporting
The UK energy statistics tables gov.uk/government/sta… show that in the last three months for which data is available (Sept-Nov) – a period after the current 'crisis' entered full swing – the UK exported 31,975 GWh of gas
The figure for the same three months of 2020 was 15,830 – about half as much. OK, you may say, but that was in Covid times so maybe that's the anomaly... except that the 2019 figure was 19,633; and for 2018, 16,439. This winter is the clear outlier
So why, at a time when Britain is apparently crying out for gas, is this happening? Well... for the fairly obvious reason that the gas doesn't belong to the British public or the British government, but to whichever company gets it out of the ground
And as any company would, they're selling it for the best price they can get. Which happens to be, for large volumes of it, by sending it through the pipeline into Belgium and the Netherlands
This is utterly normal corporate behaviour, and completely to be expected. But it sure knocks a massive hole in the argument that Britain needs 'its own' gas production for energy security
In reality there is no 'our gas'. It is extracted from rock in British territory: but the companies don't have to be British, nor the investors, nor the supply chain. It's not directed by the British government or used by the British people. It's 'the company's gas', not 'ours'
Fracking wouldn't change this. Nor would increasing North Sea production, were that even feasible. Unless you want to argue for state ownership of the gas produced, it will always get sold where the profit margin is biggest...
...and energy security will always depend on UK companies (not the government) paying the market price
So, argue for continuing UK oil and gas production on the basis of jobs, balance of payments or whatever argument you want, but... please let's not have any more of this 'increasing UK production is essential at a time of crisis'. Because the export figures tell a different story
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THREAD: Seen a bit of chat recently implying that the UK shouldn't put pedal to the metal on decarbonisation as it's so far gone faster than US - which is true, it has
The implication is that somehow this speed has been bad for the UK economy. The data say otherwise
Since 1990, UK GDP has increased 3.45-fold, according to the World Bank. The US, 3.42-fold. Basically, identical data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.G…
THREAD: With all the talk #cop28 centring on #fossilfuelphaseout or not – abated, unabated, etc – what actually is the logical role of CCS in the energy transition?
In a new paper for @thesmithschool @uniofoxford, Dr Andrea Bacilieri, Dr Rupert Way and I analyse the relative costs of taking a high-CCS vs a low-CCS route to #netzero and the 1.5°C temperature goal – a question that as far as we can see hasn’t been properly asked before
Hilarious to see @NetZeroWatch plugging this 'dangers of woke banking' line... here's their chairman's own company's sustainability page 😂😂😂 recordfg.com/sustainability/
I have deep reservations about this 'people who live near wind farms should get cheap electricity' thing, which has reached a new depth today with a recommendation that they should get free electricity
It would only make sense if people were opposed to having wind farms nearby, and there's a welter of evidence in a range of countries showing that the majority of people aren't opposed (eg sciencedirect.com/science/articl…)
THREAD: Climate change causes conflict, you say? Well: it's a bit more complex than that
Climate change and other facets of the global environmental crisis raise the risks of conflict and other forms of insecurity. But so do many other things - competition for resources, ethnic tensions, prior conflicts, pandemics...
And there is already a growing security crisis. Over the last 10 years (well before #Covid and Putin's war) the number of state-based armed conflicts, the number of people killed in them and the number of people displaced all roughly doubled
This is also a nod to all those lining up to pontificate that '1.5°C is dead', particularly scientists who make no attempt to clarify that that what they're saying is just their opinion, not fact
Firstly let's look at the #ParisAgreement's wording - to 'hold' warming 'well below 2°C' while 'making efforts' to keep it to 1.5°C. There is no time limit on that 'making efforts'. Governments did not pledge to make efforts until warming exceeds 1.5°C and then stop