Thread by @RALee85

A nice rundown of perspectives. I want to emphasize that Russia's current behavior—the demands, rhetoric, and buildup—are unprecedented. It is entirely possible that Russia's next steps will not be similar to previous uses of military force but could also be unprecedented.

https://twitter.com/russia_matters/status/1486768902038331393

So we are all debating how much a Russian escalation would look like 2008, 2014, and 2015. All of those events had an external catalyst that led to Russia's response. If Russia escalates now without such a clear event, it would be a significant departure from previous behavior.2/

There is a lot of uncertainty about which COA Russia may choose, and they could of course change their ultimate goal after deciding to escalate depending on how the conflict is going. We should also keep in mind that the Russian military is much more capable than 2008-2015. 3/

Putin has overseen 4 military conflicts, and he has been fairly successful. The one exception is eastern Ukraine, so he may think more force is required than before to achieve a long-term solution there. I still think a more aggressive version of the 2008 war is most likely. 4/

@KofmanMichael persuasively argues a more ambitious goal is more likely. The risks and costs would increase if Russian forces go into cities and try to occupy more territory but that may be necessary to achieve a long-term political solution. 5/
warontherocks.com/2022/01/putins…

If Russian forces go into cities, the number of civilian casualties will increase and cities with great historical importance for Russia could be damaged. I think popular approval isn't that much of a constraint for Putin, but I think substantial civilian casualties would be. 6/

But Mike is right that more limited military options may not achieve a lasting political solution, so why go through with it and sustain all of the costs (e.g. sanctions, NATO unity)? It depends on how much pain Putin thinks he has to inflict on Ukraine to achieve these goals. 7/

It also depends how much resistance Putin thinks Ukrainians would put up to a Russian escalation. I don't know, and there is a lot of uncertainty. What is certain is that Russia has deployed serious military capabilities near Ukraine that could pursue maximalist goals. 8/