In 2020, there were a handful of child flu deaths. No new flu vaccines. Our NPIs like distancing and masking and school closures and sick days and lockdowns and ventilation OBLITERATED flu.
around 200 kids died of covid that year (about 800 this year) in the US.
/1
Comparing the death toll of the flu WITHOUT any mitigation efforts to COVID-19 WITH mitigation efforts is neither fair nor scientific. By the very fact above, we know COVID is MANY TIMES deadlier than the flu for kids.
/2
There were no vaccines in 2020 for kids. there was only our intense NPIs, doing their thing, mostly preventing kids dying of both COVID and FLU but many times moreso for flu. Absolutely kicked FLUs wimpy little butt.
/3
If the "number of kids didn't alarm us in 2019" argument is your tactic, maybe you don't recognize people for many years have done things they shouldn't and kids have died because someone worked at a hospital with flu sx or sneezed on a baby all willy-nilly.
/4
Unless you're a bizarre "well 1000 died of an old thing last year so 300 this year of a new thing is ok" person, the comparison of COVID to FLU *must* be in the same year, or you are adding variables you cannot disambiguate.
/5
And i don't know a single pediatrician who watched a flu/RSV kid die/get ICU sick in 2017 that didn't make some comment on how frustrating it is that we can stop it with masks/sick day policies but we just don't.
/6
If you are a "pandemic communicator" and you rely on 2017 FLU/RSV vs 2020 COVID in an argument that COVID isn't as deadly as the flu, you are not good at your job.
(NB: it very well could be that THIS variant omicron, is less deadly or as deadly as the flu, but there is NO argument to be made that COVID as a whole is, especially when based off of yearly data sets like CDC)
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I firmly believe there is a cohort of ghoulish people, who will conveniently use one of the most horrific contemplations, children's suicide, to argue for "less covid stuff," and then once they get their selfish, ignorant way, immediately attack the most vulnerable people + kids.
As a full time emergency child psychiatrist and suicidologist I've been consulted on far too many suicides of children in which I look outside my realm of psychiatry and realize how much there is to fix about who we are and how we treat our kids/families.
In 2019, I was proud to work with @bccoroners on a report looking at deaths of my provinces child suicide, and what we need to fix.
I know the devastation each suicide creates, & intense emotional shockwaves/aftershocks that devastate familes, schools, and communities.
I do not appreciate my words being used in arguments used to demean others, or to call names. I can't police it all because i get way too many mentions per day, but if you do so, you're doing so against my wishes.
I specifically abhor ableist language, racism, misogyny, and trans/homobphobia. I don't insults to intelligence and capabilities and appreciate all people from all diversities of life.
I call out foolish behaviour with "doofus" and academic pedantry with "egghead." b/c 240 char.
If i ever slip up from that, call me out on it. Again, i may or may not see it. I've reached a critical mass now where when i log in to twitter i have >2000 notifications, and there's nothing I can do about that except to ask anyone who follows me to be kinder to others.
Moral panics exist because of anecdotes, disproportionately hyped harms and exaggerated claims of fear-supporting research (while fear-rejecting research ignored) fueled by media fearmongering and political exploitation.
This is why people beleive suicides increased in 2020.
It's hard hard hard work to overcome moral panics. I cite my work, provide error estimates, and discuss any aspect requested of me. I am constantly being riddled with questions that I've been asked a million times by people who "know suicides increased."
I've heard "but what about ODs/deaths of dispair" and have responded hundreds of times (they are usually accidents/don't use that term if you're not a PhD winning economist).
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Canadian Suicidology Update
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We have official @StatCan_eng suicide data for 2020, ready to analyse by year. This lets us look at the trends and to see whether or not the "pandemic year" was associated with any significant changes, by gender and age.
/1
The headline is the MASSIVE drop in suicide rates during the first year of the pandemic. While not as massive as suggested in McIntyre et al*, it's still huge and significant:
DOWN 17.6% in males and 12.5% in females. 16.4% overall.
/2
I can break down our age groups as well, to look at specific groupings.
CANADIANS 65+
For older Canadians, both decreases (men down 14%, women down 6%) are no longer statistically significant (super close for the 65+ men).
The OPPOSITE of what is actually occurring (NON-EXPERTS scaremongering using inaccurate data on suicides, and selective citation science that is shoddy & poorly reported) to justify OPENING schools.
Nobody is taking position that "SCHOOLS MUST BE CLOSED"
/1
In my advocacy, I don't just discuss suicides, I discussed the state of the evidence globally including incident rates of eating disorders, depresison, anxiety, and suicide.
/2
In all of that, my position is clear: schools should be last to close and first to open. School is good. But closures, whenever necessary, are likely less harmful to kid's mental health than anything the pandemic is doing to our kids (orphanhood, worries about illness).
/3
Apparently @drlucymcbride and colleagues are hosting a zoom event tonight to discuss their awful and unscientific #UrgencyOfNormal advocacy paper. I've been asked if i can go there to challenge them.
/1
I understand. But playing on their home turf and how liberally they use misinformation would only be an exercise in frustration in which they would gishgallop their way through their bungled appropriation of mental health and i'd be left to write more 29 tweet threads.
/2
Were I to have a "guest spot" on their zoom event, I would read the 29-tweet thread in its entirety, & then log off. I don't care what they think about it, I don't care about them personally, and I am not interested in people who ghoulishly wield child suicides without care.
/3