The OPPOSITE of what is actually occurring (NON-EXPERTS scaremongering using inaccurate data on suicides, and selective citation science that is shoddy & poorly reported) to justify OPENING schools.
Nobody is taking position that "SCHOOLS MUST BE CLOSED"
/1
In my advocacy, I don't just discuss suicides, I discussed the state of the evidence globally including incident rates of eating disorders, depresison, anxiety, and suicide.
/2
In all of that, my position is clear: schools should be last to close and first to open. School is good. But closures, whenever necessary, are likely less harmful to kid's mental health than anything the pandemic is doing to our kids (orphanhood, worries about illness).
/3
If doctors want to #BellLetsTalk , they should actually practice their *listening skills* & listen to kids who have benefited from closures, kids who are worried about their safety & of cared ones at school, and kids who are screaming "can we chill it w/ the push on school?"
/4
I will be very clear: the debunking of evidence used to justify "schools must be open because school closures cause mental health harm" is NOT the same as saying "schools must be closed".
This is evidence 101. Refuting (A)->(B) is NOT claming (-A)-->(B)
/5
Anyone who reads my threads or sees my pinned tweet understands that my position is for one of nuance and using data to inform our decisionmaking. I do not speak in absolutes and I do not make bombastic claims.
/6
So Dr. Jacobs, #bellletstalk. Show me the single best piece of scientific evidence that *school closures themselves* (not the pandemic, not other 2020-22 stuff) cause mental health harms to kids.
I'll show you what steel-manning, not straw-manning, your position looks like.
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In 2020, there were a handful of child flu deaths. No new flu vaccines. Our NPIs like distancing and masking and school closures and sick days and lockdowns and ventilation OBLITERATED flu.
around 200 kids died of covid that year (about 800 this year) in the US.
/1
Comparing the death toll of the flu WITHOUT any mitigation efforts to COVID-19 WITH mitigation efforts is neither fair nor scientific. By the very fact above, we know COVID is MANY TIMES deadlier than the flu for kids.
/2
There were no vaccines in 2020 for kids. there was only our intense NPIs, doing their thing, mostly preventing kids dying of both COVID and FLU but many times moreso for flu. Absolutely kicked FLUs wimpy little butt.
/3
I do not appreciate my words being used in arguments used to demean others, or to call names. I can't police it all because i get way too many mentions per day, but if you do so, you're doing so against my wishes.
I specifically abhor ableist language, racism, misogyny, and trans/homobphobia. I don't insults to intelligence and capabilities and appreciate all people from all diversities of life.
I call out foolish behaviour with "doofus" and academic pedantry with "egghead." b/c 240 char.
If i ever slip up from that, call me out on it. Again, i may or may not see it. I've reached a critical mass now where when i log in to twitter i have >2000 notifications, and there's nothing I can do about that except to ask anyone who follows me to be kinder to others.
Moral panics exist because of anecdotes, disproportionately hyped harms and exaggerated claims of fear-supporting research (while fear-rejecting research ignored) fueled by media fearmongering and political exploitation.
This is why people beleive suicides increased in 2020.
It's hard hard hard work to overcome moral panics. I cite my work, provide error estimates, and discuss any aspect requested of me. I am constantly being riddled with questions that I've been asked a million times by people who "know suicides increased."
I've heard "but what about ODs/deaths of dispair" and have responded hundreds of times (they are usually accidents/don't use that term if you're not a PhD winning economist).
***********
Canadian Suicidology Update
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We have official @StatCan_eng suicide data for 2020, ready to analyse by year. This lets us look at the trends and to see whether or not the "pandemic year" was associated with any significant changes, by gender and age.
/1
The headline is the MASSIVE drop in suicide rates during the first year of the pandemic. While not as massive as suggested in McIntyre et al*, it's still huge and significant:
DOWN 17.6% in males and 12.5% in females. 16.4% overall.
/2
I can break down our age groups as well, to look at specific groupings.
CANADIANS 65+
For older Canadians, both decreases (men down 14%, women down 6%) are no longer statistically significant (super close for the 65+ men).
Apparently @drlucymcbride and colleagues are hosting a zoom event tonight to discuss their awful and unscientific #UrgencyOfNormal advocacy paper. I've been asked if i can go there to challenge them.
/1
I understand. But playing on their home turf and how liberally they use misinformation would only be an exercise in frustration in which they would gishgallop their way through their bungled appropriation of mental health and i'd be left to write more 29 tweet threads.
/2
Were I to have a "guest spot" on their zoom event, I would read the 29-tweet thread in its entirety, & then log off. I don't care what they think about it, I don't care about them personally, and I am not interested in people who ghoulishly wield child suicides without care.
/3
/2 I'm skipping the first line (for now), but the second part, about "deaths from child suicide vastly outnumbering deaths from COVID and are increasing" is about as awful as it gets. I consider it ghoulish to wield child suicide statistics inaccurately to make advocacy points.
/3 In order, I'm going to go through your awful slide on mental health as you selectively cited "scary findings." Of course, as the suicidologist, I'm going to start with your clearly expert-free statement on child suicides in the US, as this is my expertise.