1/ Geopolitical #Bitcoin Mining is an interesting game where the only winning move is to embrace $BTC.
2/ #Bitcoin mining at the geopolitical stage is a massive Prisoner’s Dilemma with 195 different players (195 countries).

The general idea of geopolitical Bitcoin mining game theory is that if a country does decide to ban mining, they will lose.
3/ We clearly saw this occur with China in 2021 when mining was banned.

As a result, capital in the form of ASICs and Bitcoin escaped Mainland China and that capital was attracted into other countries around the world.
4/ Other countries benefited from lower network mining difficulty (due to machines turning off) and higher mining profits.

This has resulted in the growth of Bitcoin mining everywhere else leading to more capital creation and higher tax revenues for all other countries.
5/ At the end of the day, Bitcoin is an immutable new technology tool. As society begins to understand what this is, we are seeing a race to accumulate and mine Bitcoin. It’s a race on the individual level, a race on the local level, and a race on the geopolitical level.
6/ The Prisoner's Dilemma graphic at the beginning of this thread was inspired by @parkeralewis’s original Banning Bitcoin Prisoner’s Dilemma table.

unchained.com/blog/bitcoin-c…
7/ Be sure to subscribe to the Blockware Intelligence newsletter to get my full weekly mining updates.

blockwareintelligence.com

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More from @IIICapital

Jan 17
1/ Public #Bitcoin miners raising billions of dollars in 2021 is the catalyst for Wall Street to question their skepticism towards $BTC.

Let me explain.
2/ It’s hard for Wall Street to deny that #Bitcoin mining is currently a financially attractive business.

Hence the number of miners tapping into public markets.
3/ This is because these mining companies are exciting emerging technology, high growth, and have high margins.

Nearly all early stage tech companies burn $ and still have multi-billion dollar valuations.

#Bitcoin miners have growth AND margins.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 14
1/ We’re living in a #Bitcoin mining gold rush. Billions of dollars are flooding into the mining industry to capitalize on this massive opportunity to mine and HODL cheap coins.

Where will the total network hash rate be at the end of 2022? And what does this mean for miners?
2/ @glxyresearch released a fantastic mining report that included their hash rate projections for 2022.

Their end of year projection was 335 EH/s (+84% increase from the current 14d ma).

3/ After completing our own analysis, we expect hash rate to end the year at roughly 300 EH/s.

This would be a 65% increase. Image
Read 11 tweets
Dec 15, 2021
1/ Last month I quit my “safe” technology consulting job to join @BlockwareTeam.

One reason I did this was because I believe the 2020s are setting up to be a profitable decade for #Bitcoin mining.

Let me explain why.
2/ Two simple ideas.

1. Price will continue to exponentially grow
2. Hash rate growth will continue to slow
3/ The price of Bitcoin will continue increasing exponentially due to future mass adoption and increasing scarcity.

Price growth is accelerating due to mining firms becoming large enough to capitalize on cheap public market financing.
Read 12 tweets
Nov 17, 2021
1/ Few people understand the idea of #Bitcoin denominated exit liquidity.

With the current macro environment, exponentially growing government, and rapid embracement of MMT, USD denominated prices can go to ∞.

This DOES NOT mean they can be cashed in for their $BTC equivalent.
2/ The most obvious example of this is a stock like $AAPL.

Its market cap sits at $2.5T, which is roughly 41.8M $BTC. Of course if all apple shareholders decided to cash out to #Bitcoin today, they would not end up with 41.8M $BTC, as there are currently only 18.8M that exist.
3/ $AAPL and many other large $USD denominated assets have very poor #Bitcoin denominated exit liquidity.

The global bond market probably has virtually ZERO $BTC denominated exit liquidity.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 17, 2021
#Bitcoin is money that cannot be diluted. Money is a call option on all future capital forever.

Post-hyperbitcoinization, the real return of bitcoin will be the equivalent of $SPY or a “diversified” portfolio.

99.9% of the world will have > 90% of their net worth in #Bitcoin.
Just because most people just sit on their #Bitcoin, does NOT mean growth will slow.

Growth will drastically accelerate bc the market converging on HODLing bitcoin will increase its purchasing power until entrepreneurs see real alpha in the market.
How?

If an individual HODLs #Bitcoin, the very act of removing supply from the market increases the purchasing power of all other bitcoin savers.

This upward feedback loop repeats until someone sees a good risk-adjusted opportunity to invest.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 19, 2021
1/ #Bitcoin is the first real money humans have ever discovered.

Its near perfect monetary properties combined with the immutable constant of 21 million coins will make its future value near astronomical 🚀.

$50M+ $BTC by 2040 is very reasonable.
2/ Lets recap what “money” is.

Money is an economic good. Humans have tried to use other goods as money in the past, but they are far from perfect.

Salt, shells, glass beads, Rai stones, gold, paper, and debt have all been tried to be used as money.
3/ We can evaluate if a good will be chosen to become “money” by looking at monetary properties.

The best good becomes a natural Schelling point.

Its value is not a “collective hallucination”. It's based on convergence of a good with unique properties.

Read 11 tweets

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