1/ We’re living in a #Bitcoin mining gold rush. Billions of dollars are flooding into the mining industry to capitalize on this massive opportunity to mine and HODL cheap coins.
Where will the total network hash rate be at the end of 2022? And what does this mean for miners?
Where will the total network hash rate be at the end of 2022? And what does this mean for miners?
2/ @glxyresearch released a fantastic mining report that included their hash rate projections for 2022.
Their end of year projection was 335 EH/s (+84% increase from the current 14d ma).
Their end of year projection was 335 EH/s (+84% increase from the current 14d ma).
https://twitter.com/glxyresearch/status/1481265565578629121?s=20
3/ After completing our own analysis, we expect hash rate to end the year at roughly 300 EH/s.
This would be a 65% increase.
This would be a 65% increase.
4/ A large amount of this hash rate is expected to come from public miners leveraging debt and equity markets to finance $100M+ ASIC orders and capital intensive mining infrastructure.
The data in the table below was compiled from public and private company filings.
The data in the table below was compiled from public and private company filings.
5/ Combining our public and private miner estimates (more details in newsletter), we expect total network hash rate to go from 182 EH/s to 300EH/s by the end of the year.
The average difficulty adjustment should be ≈ +2%.
The average difficulty adjustment should be ≈ +2%.
6/ This means 2.27 EH/s should be added to the network every week from here on out.
This is roughly the equivalent of 25,000 Antminer S19j’s (95 MW) getting added to the network every week.
This is roughly the equivalent of 25,000 Antminer S19j’s (95 MW) getting added to the network every week.
7/ A significant amount of ASICs need to be shipped and plugged in, large physical infrastructure needs to be built, and a massive amount of electricity needs to be sourced for the Bitcoin network to grow at this rate by the end of 2022.
8/ This combined with global supply chain issues and older generation machines (S9s) potentially dropping off the network is why we don’t expect the network hash rate to double in only one year.
9/ Hash rate growing by 65% likely won’t be a huge issue for most miners. If Bitcoin goes back to $69,300, that itself will be a 65% return. As long as Bitcoin goes up to $69,300 or more this year, then mining will be equal or more profitable on a dollar basis than it is today.
10/ Even if price remains the same, and this incoming hash rate still arrives, new generation machines should still be spitting off positive cash flows for their owners.
Happy hashing ⛏️ and HODLing :)
Happy hashing ⛏️ and HODLing :)
11/ If you want more details of this analysis or want to see what else was covered in our Blockware Intelligence newsletter, take a look.
blockwareintelligence.com/p/blockware-in…
blockwareintelligence.com/p/blockware-in…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
