-Since August'08 we have only went from the ranging zone (yellow) to the downtred zone (blue) 4 times.
- Also, we had bounced 2 times from similar current levels in the past d without touching the blue zone.
More 🔽
The four times we went below:
- 2008-2010: -44% from current level, 722 days to recover.
- 2016:- 8.5% from curent level, 46 days to recover.
-2018-2019: 13% from current levels, 62 days to recover.
- 2020: 13% from current level, 33 days to recover.
The two times we bounce:
- 2011: TR sentiment was from yellow to pink (neutral to medium fear)
-2015: TR sentimen was from yellow to red (neutral to low fear)
So as you can see, the bottom is very unpredictable, we could go all the way down to the blue zone or bounce from here. But the market always recovers eventually.
Also TR sentiment is already on yellow, so I won't try to predict the bottom and just start DCA now.
Also if TR sentiment intensifies into fear levels I will just increse my DCA ammount.
What is DCA? check our basic learning material thread.
Please note that this is LONG TERM trade, will follow this strategy for months/years if needed. Only with a part of my total portfolio.
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Please have in mind that the "Possible actions" are just a guide on how to interprete all the signals. Use them to complement your own analysis, and decide accordingly❗
This one looks interesting, current TR Sentiment levels are getting closer to the past March'20 crash.
We are already at medium fear (different calculation than "Fear and Greed Index") and deep into the blue zone.
So...
As $BTC still on a midterm downtrend and Alts are more risky during time, is all up to how much you believe in $ADA for the long run and its ability to recover.
If that is the case, then Medium Fear are very good levels to start DCA.
Prices can go lower of course, in that case we probably will go into extreme fear (purple sentiment), but the price does not last long on extreme levels.
A VERY zoomed out look to the SPY (S&P500) trend. Using the Weekly timeframe.
Hope this helps to provide some perspective of where the market is right now.
Conclusions at the end.🔽🔽
Facts:
- We continue on the uptrend channel.
- Uptrend Channel support at 417 USD
- Weekly sentiment is current neutral.
- Macro bottoms (best opportunities ever to buy) occur on the ranging or downtrend zone and when TR Sentiment is at medium-extreme fear.
Conclusion:
- Nothing to worry in the long term.
- DCA (buying a little every day) works great for the SPY index.
- If Macro bottom signals appear I would go all in.
Labels explain the whole TS process here. Right now, only small positions with tight stop loss and aggressive profit taking until trend flips bullish again.
Bounce Resistance: 1.91
Please note that trading when the midterm trend is bearish requires an advance level of trading and more time dedicated to watch for potential reversals.
For example if a blue dot appears / bearish divergence appears on the daily it will cancel out the short term bullish momentum.