Anyway...perhaps I should formally introduce this week's podcast.The conversation is fast paced, even so I try and explain the Quantity Theory of Insanity. The Alchemy of Finance, it is not...
We consider The Secret Policeman's Macro Ball, an annual illuminati gathering of the great minds in macro hedge fund management. The Miami event that you are assured not to receive an invitation to. Just why do the top managers share their best-ideas with their competition?
Regrets, I got a few and we travel back to 9 December 2008 for me to rage at my younger self. You see, 2 years before, I predicted a deflationary event that would send Treasury bond prices surging and the gold price crashing.
But, when this prophesy came true, I failed to load up on gold. I could have been a legend rather than a hobo. I'm raging mad with my younger self. To be fair, I did sidestep the gold slide and made a packet on the Ts, but still...
And with markets in turmoil, stock porn returns. We dust off the chart rotator to examine the Dow Jones constituent 30 stocks to determine where prices are versus their slower, longer-dated moving averages.
I invoke my Acid Capitalist tendencies once more to draw predictions and stock ideas for the coming year.
00:07:55 Secret Policeman's Macro Ball
00:17:40 IPOs The Slaughter of the Innocents
00:25:55 Quantity Theory of Insanity
00:59:40 My Big Macro Error
01:13:45 DJI30 Stock Chart Rotator
Seemed an appropriate swan song...St Barts forever
This year's markets are wonderfully ambiguous, if only SPX were down +20pc I’d know what to do. Anyway, I like a book that begins with something quotable - it means that my REM problem solving software is running inside my head.
I’m lifting from The Anomaly by Hervé Le Tellier but I’m yet to get really motoring with it. Then I’m gonna read it in French, it’s original language. But truth be told, I’m still in mourning for having finished Atlas Shrugged, where will my daily inspiration come from?
Editing the HedgeFund Masterclass for release tomorrow. Wanted to share a snippet. Will be released usual channels and of course YouTube. Sometimes you just know you made a belter youtube.com/channel/UCs4X8…
Peloton and all those muppets that list with the exorbitant privilege of a management category of shares with more voting rights than us plebs. You better be in a bull market cause if you mess up, we, the dogs of capitalism, are going to snarl and bite and blow your house down...
Risk is resetting. Things changing. There will be opportunities. There will be blood. Let it be the other guy. Let's get absurd. But first, come on...join me on instagram where I'm broadcasting everyday. Tweeting's like dropping sand in the desert...
Confession, I was always susceptible to a little superstition, still am. GAPS get filled - well they do if I own them. What do I mean. That 1st chart below shows that way back in August last year, investors got a little over-excited in uranium stocks.
I have high conviction that 10 Y Ts will make new price HIGHs before commencing a decades long bear. I think it will record yield lows despite irrefutable evidence of worrisome inflation. Why? Because I believe in the power of paradox
What do you believe in? And don’t you think its a little conceited to think that markets should travel in YOUR direction? That they should always be rational. You got any evidence for that?
No 20h fast or avocados today. I’m having lunch on the beach with an investment legend…a money maker…a rare mind and a great guy
This week @writes_sweeney and I kick back. Inspired by Jeff Bezos, and his recent jaunt to St Barts, I reveal my 20h fast and avocado regime. To me, longevity and contrarian investing are bedfellows. Chris shakes his head in disbelief. But discipline, do you have the discipline
Chris has his runner's legs on and wants to know more about what's knocking the cap mkts this week. Bonds, not James, but the ongoing disturbance in the US Treasury market are discussed. Better construct an inventory of ideas than trade against the trend. Check your premises!
You ready for this ?
Right, let's begin
I am I, and you are You
And just cause you don't see me
doesn't mean I'm not there
And just because I'm in Heaven
Doesn't mean I don't Care
One day we'll meet...You and I
You'll Step out of the Darkness
And I'll be standing in the light
I've always been watching you...
Dogs of Capitalism, snarl, bark, bark, gnash, gnash...