Risk is resetting. Things changing. There will be opportunities. There will be blood. Let it be the other guy. Let's get absurd. But first, come on...join me on instagram where I'm broadcasting everyday. Tweeting's like dropping sand in the desert...
Confession, I was always susceptible to a little superstition, still am. GAPS get filled - well they do if I own them. What do I mean. That 1st chart below shows that way back in August last year, investors got a little over-excited in uranium stocks.
Cameco, a big, dull Canadian miner opened erratically and the first trade was way above the closing price from the night before. That’s a gap. An ecstatic opening. Ecstasy in the real world, I kind of like it but with money it tends to be unwound in the markets tick-by-tick.
Cameco is a boring, safe uranium play. In a parallel universe it would be run more aggressively, in our world, it’s not. But that doesn’t matter at these levels. People rightly bitch that they hedge too much and sell uranium forward at low prices. Wish it was otherwise...
But I reason that’s overblown. They all do it - even those sexy, aggressive juniors that you've sworn an allegiance to - if they say they don't, I say they do...
But I swear, if CCJ fills $16, I ‘m gonna buy it…the acid capitalist is looking for his gold ticket invitation to visit Charlie Wonka and his Chocolate Factory. Paradoxical conjecture - remove the exuberance, base at $16, recover and challenge the $25 line, then dream of $100
SPX has a gap at 400. I don't care. Passage of time has healed it whereas the August $16 is still in play for cameco as absurd as that may sound when you're close to the fundamentals...
And "serious diplomatic paths forward" for the fascists??? I would make it abundantly clear that Vlad's personal oil stock is strictly off limits to the international investment community. It can have cash and equivalents of 6pc of Russian GDP. I don't care, let them stew...
Chart courtesy of market screener
If I was Uncle Joe I'd start throwing my country's weight around financially like a super-power. No more mister nice guy. Bullies don't like a strong response.
I'd erase these stocks from portfolios. I'd deny access to St Barts and the Verbiers of this world. You like being led by a warmonger? Fine, live in Russia with all your billions. I think I've just been struck off the VIP list. I don't care...
And I'd have the T Dept short the heck out of the Honkers just to keep the other fascists on their toes. Never one for diplomatic paths. Didn't work in 1979, won't work now. Only emboldens the undemocratic. Did I tell you the time I trended on Twitter #hedgefundendorsestorture?
I have high conviction that 10 Y Ts will make new price HIGHs before commencing a decades long bear. I think it will record yield lows despite irrefutable evidence of worrisome inflation. Why? Because I believe in the power of paradox
What do you believe in? And don’t you think its a little conceited to think that markets should travel in YOUR direction? That they should always be rational. You got any evidence for that?
No 20h fast or avocados today. I’m having lunch on the beach with an investment legend…a money maker…a rare mind and a great guy
This week @writes_sweeney and I kick back. Inspired by Jeff Bezos, and his recent jaunt to St Barts, I reveal my 20h fast and avocado regime. To me, longevity and contrarian investing are bedfellows. Chris shakes his head in disbelief. But discipline, do you have the discipline
Chris has his runner's legs on and wants to know more about what's knocking the cap mkts this week. Bonds, not James, but the ongoing disturbance in the US Treasury market are discussed. Better construct an inventory of ideas than trade against the trend. Check your premises!
You ready for this ?
Right, let's begin
I am I, and you are You
And just cause you don't see me
doesn't mean I'm not there
And just because I'm in Heaven
Doesn't mean I don't Care
One day we'll meet...You and I
You'll Step out of the Darkness
And I'll be standing in the light
I've always been watching you...
Dogs of Capitalism, snarl, bark, bark, gnash, gnash...
Merde I look so young...As I am sure you by now know, I am nothing but a worrier, and a bit younger somewhere in another universe far, far away. Anyway, if you listen to the podcast, and not many do 😂 buzzsprout.com/1017043/9888382
You'll be left short handed this week because I omit a very important quote. Let me make good on this omission, you see, I have a soul mate in the prolific but often misunderstood Italian soccer player Pippo Inzaghi, the second highest scorer in all European club competitions.
I thought I might turn yesterday's thread into theatre
What's today's fog ?
The power - the supremacy - of the Chinese state "they got this"...
The allure of buying the washout in Chinese tech.
US CPI rising at 1982 levels
The shock of bond yields
The ignorance of the collapsing spread between the short and the long end ?
I'm gonna read The Invisible Man for inspiration. He would know how to respond...
@GeorgeGammon recently asked me..Why did you give up macro ?
Because financial danger to the many has become a signal to shut off their sight, suspend their judgment pursue an unaltered course to the brink, on the unstated premise that the danger will always remain unreal owing to the supposed super-sovereign power of the central banks
And their cronies in fin media spooning their spider lullabies that « they got this ». They’re like a foghorn at the centre of the financial universe, blowing the unwary investor, not to sound a warning, but to summon the fog once more.