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Jan 29 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
The BBC becomes the latest organisation to debunk the false claims that only 17,000 died of the virus, widely shared by @DavidDavisMP. He's specifically mentioned in this piece as sharing the offending video.

1/
bbc.co.uk/news/60145237
That follows the ONS rebutting the claim firmly here in a blog. But it doesn't stop there...

2/
No less than the Office for Statistics Regulation has weighed in too - it really is remarkable how many trusted bodies are having to refute the misinformation that @DavidDavisMP has shared.

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Fortunately the press has picked up on these rebuttals - here's the Guardian's take on it.

4/
 theguardian.com/world/2022/jan…
And here's @whippletom's article in the Times.

Yet still no retraction from the former cabinet minister.

5/
Perhaps my MP, @LiamFox, who probably knows a little more about death certification than @DavidDavisMP, can persuade his colleague to offer an apology, deletion of the offending tweet, and retraction ?

6/6

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More from @john_actuary

John Roberts Profile picture
Jan 30
Jamie's wording here is aimed at making you think that the pandemic has triggered a huge increase in psychiatric/suicide related call-outs in Wales.

The graph below is correct, but let's take a closer look...

1/ Image
Actually you don't need to take that close a look to see that there's something odd with the data. Only 1 case in 2017, rising to 28 in 2019 - all before the pandemic.

So it looks like there are data quality issues here. A change in reporting method maybe?

2/ Image
Let's look at a monthly analysis next - I've helpfully split out the period before any restrictions started, and you can see that the big increase was all prior to the pandemic taking hold.

It looks like a reporting change happened in late 19 - so nothing to do with COVID.

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
Jan 28
Some (very) early evidence that secondary attack rates of BA.2 are higher in household settings than those of its older sibling.

From the latest Variant TB 35.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

1/
Fortunately there's no evidence yet that BA.2 has a greater propensity for vaccine escape. Indeed, there's a possibility it's slightly less able in that regard, though not statistically robust yet.

2/
You can see BA.2 start to nibble away at BA.1's dominant position here in the bottom right hand corner. Note because of sequencing time, this cuts off around 10 days ago.

3/
Read 4 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
Jan 27
The latest Vaccine Surveillance Report now extends efficacy data out to 15 weeks, and shows a continued fall in booster efficacy against symptomatic disease, particularly where AZ was the primary course (below).
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1/
mRNA throughout the course and booster appears a smidge better, particularly where Moderna was used for the booster, (although Moderna data doesn't extend to 15+ weeks yet).

2/
Efficacy against hospitalisation where AZ is the primary course dips to below 80% in the 10-14 week period, against 90% at the outset (ie the efficacy gap has doubled over that period).

3/
Read 7 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
Jan 27
A modest fall this week in the proportion of COVID patients where it is judged the primary diagnosis across England, from 52% to 48%. London continues to lead the way down, lowest, at 36%, with others ranging up to 57%.

1/
In total the number of primary diagnosis patients has fallen 18% to 6,256.

Remember that the notes accompanying these data say that doesn't mean the others are not being treated for COVID, or that it wasn't a factor in their admission.

2/
As an example, COVID is quite likely to have triggered the stroke in a patient admitted who also has COVID, but it is the stroke that is likely to be the primary condition they are being treated for.

3/
Read 5 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
Jan 26
The latest #REACT study (Round 17) confirms the rapid growth seen in other studies, tripling between R16 and 17 to 4.4%, the highest seen to date, with Omicron being 98% of samples.

Within R17, there's a clear sign of a fall though, with R put at 0.95, but varying by age.

1/ Image
That age variation can be seen here, with U17s still increasing through the round, whereas adults are showing clear declines.

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Here's the history of these surveys, showing how R17 (5/1 to 20/1) is also around 3 times the rate at the peak of Alpha a year ago (R8). You can see the sample sizes too here if you're interested.

3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
John Roberts Profile picture
Jan 26
The latest antibody study from ONS gives info re children for the first time, and we can also see clearly the impact of the booster on adults.

At older ages the higher threshold levels now monitored dropped rapidly before the booster restored them (and more...).

1/ Image
Looking at children, the contrast in antibody levels between the vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts is very apparent.

It's noticeable how little levels have moved despite the Omicron surge, although the cut off date of Jan 3rd may be a little too early to see the effect.

2/ Image
Note the modelled % of those age 12-15 who have been vaxxed is considerably higher than we see in other data, which may be a result of the population agreeing to participate in the survey being more favourable to vaccination than the general population.

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Read 8 tweets

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