John Roberts Profile picture
Jan 30 11 tweets 5 min read
Jamie's wording here is aimed at making you think that the pandemic has triggered a huge increase in psychiatric/suicide related call-outs in Wales.

The graph below is correct, but let's take a closer look...

1/
Actually you don't need to take that close a look to see that there's something odd with the data. Only 1 case in 2017, rising to 28 in 2019 - all before the pandemic.

So it looks like there are data quality issues here. A change in reporting method maybe?

2/
Let's look at a monthly analysis next - I've helpfully split out the period before any restrictions started, and you can see that the big increase was all prior to the pandemic taking hold.

It looks like a reporting change happened in late 19 - so nothing to do with COVID.

3/
And here's Jan and Feb, which in 2020 predated the pandemic, and you can see the big increase again.

Indeed the figures are higher in 2020 than in 2021 at the height of the second (Alpha) wave when the country was in lockdown.

4/
As a senior ex-ONS employee, for balance Jamie might also have mentioned his former employer's assessment that suicides were significantly lower in the first quarter of the pandemic, giving a slightly different picture to that he tries to paint.

5/
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
Jamie's misleading tweet with the implication it gives has been RT'd 367 times so far.

6/
Mental health is of course a very important issue, and more so during the very difficult times we've had over the last 2 years. But it's important not to overstate the issue, as @statsjamie has done, for what motivation he has.

7/
If you are struggling, and need help, or have otherwise been affected by these issues, here are some links to services which are there to help you, including the @samaritans helpline on 116 123.

8/8
nhs.uk/mental-health/…
Update:
Jamie has issued a clarification, after the Medical Director for the Welsh Ambulance Trust stepped in to the discussion (in a way not exactly helpful to his position, shall we say).

But here's the thing...

9/11
Surprise, surprise, Jamie's followers seem less inclined to RT the clarification, meaning that in terms of coverage the damage is done, and the retraction is much less impactful than the original tweet, which remains at the time of writing.

10/11
And the opportunity to properly put the record straight, with an image from the link showing the clear statement from the ONS that suicides actually fell in 2020 is missed with the blandest of statements instead.

11/11

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More from @john_actuary

Jan 29
The BBC becomes the latest organisation to debunk the false claims that only 17,000 died of the virus, widely shared by @DavidDavisMP. He's specifically mentioned in this piece as sharing the offending video.

1/
bbc.co.uk/news/60145237
That follows the ONS rebutting the claim firmly here in a blog. But it doesn't stop there...

2/
No less than the Office for Statistics Regulation has weighed in too - it really is remarkable how many trusted bodies are having to refute the misinformation that @DavidDavisMP has shared.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jan 28
Some (very) early evidence that secondary attack rates of BA.2 are higher in household settings than those of its older sibling.

From the latest Variant TB 35.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

1/
Fortunately there's no evidence yet that BA.2 has a greater propensity for vaccine escape. Indeed, there's a possibility it's slightly less able in that regard, though not statistically robust yet.

2/
You can see BA.2 start to nibble away at BA.1's dominant position here in the bottom right hand corner. Note because of sequencing time, this cuts off around 10 days ago.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Jan 27
The latest Vaccine Surveillance Report now extends efficacy data out to 15 weeks, and shows a continued fall in booster efficacy against symptomatic disease, particularly where AZ was the primary course (below).
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1/
mRNA throughout the course and booster appears a smidge better, particularly where Moderna was used for the booster, (although Moderna data doesn't extend to 15+ weeks yet).

2/
Efficacy against hospitalisation where AZ is the primary course dips to below 80% in the 10-14 week period, against 90% at the outset (ie the efficacy gap has doubled over that period).

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jan 27
A modest fall this week in the proportion of COVID patients where it is judged the primary diagnosis across England, from 52% to 48%. London continues to lead the way down, lowest, at 36%, with others ranging up to 57%.

1/
In total the number of primary diagnosis patients has fallen 18% to 6,256.

Remember that the notes accompanying these data say that doesn't mean the others are not being treated for COVID, or that it wasn't a factor in their admission.

2/
As an example, COVID is quite likely to have triggered the stroke in a patient admitted who also has COVID, but it is the stroke that is likely to be the primary condition they are being treated for.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Jan 26
The latest #REACT study (Round 17) confirms the rapid growth seen in other studies, tripling between R16 and 17 to 4.4%, the highest seen to date, with Omicron being 98% of samples.

Within R17, there's a clear sign of a fall though, with R put at 0.95, but varying by age.

1/ Image
That age variation can be seen here, with U17s still increasing through the round, whereas adults are showing clear declines.

2/ Image
Here's the history of these surveys, showing how R17 (5/1 to 20/1) is also around 3 times the rate at the peak of Alpha a year ago (R8). You can see the sample sizes too here if you're interested.

3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 26
The latest antibody study from ONS gives info re children for the first time, and we can also see clearly the impact of the booster on adults.

At older ages the higher threshold levels now monitored dropped rapidly before the booster restored them (and more...).

1/ Image
Looking at children, the contrast in antibody levels between the vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts is very apparent.

It's noticeable how little levels have moved despite the Omicron surge, although the cut off date of Jan 3rd may be a little too early to see the effect.

2/ Image
Note the modelled % of those age 12-15 who have been vaxxed is considerably higher than we see in other data, which may be a result of the population agreeing to participate in the survey being more favourable to vaccination than the general population.

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets

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