Long term (5+ years), #bitcoin is always bullish. Short term (3-6 months), I believe we will keep sliding down. Medium term (1-2 years), I see a continuing downtrend until the end of the year, then we seem to be getting back up to ~$50K. Let's take a closer look.
Current #bitcoin price action is fundamentally determined by four support/resistance levels: $20K, $29K, $43K and $65K. The $43K support was lost on Jan 20, and we remain in a downtrend, fighting between $29K and $43K.
Very soon we'll come to a head with the downsloping trendline that started on Nov 16.
Switching to the 4H timeframe, it seems that this can easily happen within the next 5 days. A similar breakout attempt at the $43K resistance last week was quashed quickly. Price action looks more hopeful this time.
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The Dynamic Power Cycle (DPC) model of #Bitcoin uses the power law as its base, and adds periodic behaviour resulting from the coin's 4-year block subsidy (miner reward) halving cycle. The implementation of the model now reflects my original vision (conceived in Oct 2021). 🧵 17
1. The red line on the chart above shows how the median price of bitcoin is expected to unfold over the next 3 years. Today's closing price is projected between $30K and $73K (median: $47K). Time uncertainty is ±34 days, and price tolerance is -36%/+56% (at 95% confidence).
2. The cycle trough is expected between Dec 2, 2022, and Feb 8, 2023 (midpoint: Jan 5), and the price at that time is projected at $11-27K (median: $17K). The next halving is expected to occur on Apr 24, 2024, and the price at that time is projected at $29-70K (median: $45K).
Is there periodicity in the price of #bitcoin? I'm glad you asked. I have distilled the answer to a single chart using Fourier transform on the de-trended data (power law). Chart shows the magnitude of periodic components. Highlighted peaks: 2.11, 4.06 and 5.08 years.
The 4-year component corresponds to the halving cycle, and the 2-year one seems to be its lower harmonic. The 5-year component is intriguing and it's something I haven't seen discussed before - needs further examination.
As you can see, the annual component is insignificant.
Here is what the halving cycle looks like. The grey dots represent individual values and the red line is their average across the 4-year cycle. The cycle is normalized into 200 steps. Values are log10 of residual price (after removing the long-term power law trend).
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