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DFi Profile picture
DFi
@DeFi_initiate
DeFi initiate on an endless journey. Self-sovereign global citizen. Insights are figments of my own imagination. Price is king but time conquers all. *NFA*DYOR*
5 subscribers
Oct 1 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
#Bitcoin DPC model quarterly update.

- Current model price: $79K ($46-140K)
- Mid-cycle peak (Oct'25): $260K ($150-460K)
- Mid-cycle trough (Nov'26): $52K ($30-92K)
- Next cycle finish (Mar'28): $140K ($84-260K)
Image Quarterly projections:
- Dec 31, 2024: $99K ($57-170K)
- Mar 31, 2025: $140K ($81-250K)
- Jun 30, 2025: $190K ($110-340K)
- Sep 30, 2025: $260K ($150-450K)

The next two quarters should see more than a doubling of the price, and it's good to keep DCA buying. Image
Apr 5, 2023 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
#Bitcoin DPC price model - Quarterly update (Apr 5, 2023)

- Current projection: $27K ($16-49K)
- Projected cycle finish (Apr 23, 2024): $74K ($43-130K)
- Next projected cycle peak (Oct 9, 2025): $179K ($104-316K) ImageImageImage As expected, $BTC has moved up considerably since November. However, there remains a large upside and it's still a good time to start (or continue) DCA buying.

Quarterly projections:
- Jun 30, 2023: $49K
- Sep 30, 2023: $50K
- Dec 31, 2023: $59K
- Mar 31, 2024: $65K
Jun 19, 2022 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
#Bitcoin DPC price model - Weekly update (Jun 19, 2022)

- Current projection: $26K ($15-46K)
- Projected cycle trough (Jan 5, 2023): $16K ($9-28K)
- Projected cycle finish (Apr 24, 2024): $40K ($23-71K)
- Next projected cycle peak (Oct 3, 2025): $320K ($190-570K)* inaccurate I reverted the latest model change of May 7. Explanation:

(1/6) The DPC model has 2 basic components: the log-log power law and the cyclic pattern from trough to peak to trough. The first one takes care of long-term growth, while the second charts out the mid-term swings.
Jun 19, 2022 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
The clash of long-term #bitcoin price models - Weekly update (Jun 19, 2022). Yesterday's $BTC closing price and model projections:

- $BTC: $19K
- DPC: $26K
- Power Law: $39K
- HODL: $41K

- Exp. Growth: $81K
- RMA730: $81K
- S2F: $81K
- RS2FO: $84K
- LCONT: $130K Model multiples (projected model price divided by price of #bitcoin):

- DPC: 1.37
- Power Law: 2.06
- HODL: 2.16

- Exp. Growth: 4.26
- RMA730: 4.25
- S2F: 4.24
- RS2FO: 4.39
- LCONT: 6.95

Models with multiples persistently staying over 2 or under 0.5 are not useful.
Jun 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
#Bitcoin DPC price model - Weekly update (Jun 11, 2022)

- Current projection: $32K ($18-56K)
- Projected cycle trough (Nov 15, 2022): $30K ($17-53K)
- Projected cycle finish (Apr 24, 2024): $88K ($51-160K)
- Next projected cycle peak (Sep 20, 2025): $220K ($130-380K) ImageImageImage Main messages:

- $BTC is always bullish in the long run (power law)
- Current medium-term outlook is ranging (halving cycle)
- Model is not indicative of short-term price action (not technical analysis)
- Strategy of choice depends on time horizon (time conquers all)
Jun 11, 2022 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
The clash of long-term #bitcoin price models - Weekly update (Jun 11, 2022). Yesterday's $BTC closing price and model projections:

- $BTC: $29K
- DPC: $32K
- Power Law: $39K
- HODL: $40K

- Exp. Growth: $80K
- RMA730: $80K
- S2F: $81K
- RS2FO: $82K
- LCONT: $130K ImageImage Model multiples (projected model price divided by price of #bitcoin):

- DPC: 1.10
- Power Law: 1.34
- HODL: 1.38

- Exp. Growth: 2.75
- RMA730: 2.76
- S2F: 2.79
- RS2FO: 2.82
- LCONT: 4.47
Jun 1, 2022 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
#Node projects - Jun 1 update

Total of 100 sunkens (units) invested as below:

- @polar_nodes: 42
- @HordeTweets: 18
- @phoenix_fi: 15
- @grape_finance: 8
- @_ThorFinancial: 5
- @VaporNodes: 3
- Written off: 9 (busted nodes) With current prices & rewards, initial investment will be recovered (ROI) after the following number of days:

- @polar_nodes: 378
- @HordeTweets: 83
- @phoenix_fi: 1,951
- @grape_finance: 49
- @_ThorFinancial: 547
- @VaporNodes: 1,469
May 28, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
#Bitcoin DPC price model - Weekly update (May 28, 2022)

- Current projection: $32K ($18-56K)
- Projected cycle trough (Nov 15, 2022): $30K ($17-53K)
- Projected cycle finish (Apr 24, 2024): $88K ($51-160K)
- Next projected cycle peak (Sep 20, 2025): $220K ($130-380K) ImageImageImage Main messages:

- $BTC is always bullish in the long run (power law)
- Current medium-term outlook is ranging (halving cycle)
- Model is not indicative of short-term price action (not technical analysis)
- Strategy of choice depends on time horizon (time conquers all)
May 3, 2022 • 5 tweets • 8 min read
(May 3 update) A list of @polar_nodes creator codes you can use to get a discount when buying $POLAR nodes/NFTs.

The list is in alphabetical order with affiliates offering the max 2% discount first (be sure to verify claims). Please reply with additions/corrections.

🧵 of 4 Image Page 1/4 (2% discount)

@0xKrastoz: 0xKrastoz
@Analyserxx: Analyser
@bwolf43: Wolfpup
@Ch0wja: CHOW
@Crypthopea: crypthopea
@cryptowithlollo: Cryptowithlorenzo
@DigitalDegener8: Degener8
@F1sT: F1st
@joaopalma_: joaopalma
May 1, 2022 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
The clash of long-term #bitcoin price models - Weekly update (May 1, 2022). Model projections for yesterday's $BTC closing price:

- Power law: $37K
- HODL: $38K
- $BTC: $38K
- DPC: $40K
- RS2FO: $75K
- Exp growth: $75K
- RMA730: $78K
- S2F: $81K
- LCONT: $120K ImageImage Time span of charts: 16 years & 5 years

Yesterday's $BTC closing price & respective model multiples (projected model price ÷ price of #bitcoin) are shown on the 2nd chart. Best fit is by the HODL model (orange dash dot curve): 0.996 * $BTC was projected for yesterday's close.
Feb 21, 2022 • 10 tweets • 7 min read
We need a #profitable investment strategy. When it comes to #bitcoin, this task seems very simple: just hold and number will go up. This maxi view advocates a constant buying strategy commonly called dollar (or unit) cost averaging (#DCA/UCA). But is this the best we can do? 🧵 9 Image 1. The annual chart above shows that, indeed, #number just keeps going up. What about those red candles though? Can we avoid losing money in the red years? Is there a #pattern to them?

The losses can be significant (56-73%) so it would be good to know what to do in those years.
Feb 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Many #Americans are led to believe that there are only two sides to a question. This way of thinking goes back to the times before the civil war (1861-65), when the two major political parties had already formed.

cliffsnotes.com/study-guides/a… In other western democracies, a plurality of parties is the norm: there are typically 3 or 4 major parties and a large number of others: Japan 3, Germany 3, UK 4, France 3, Italy 4.

Here is a list of political parties around the world: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_r…
Feb 16, 2022 • 9 tweets • 7 min read
The vast majority of CT is misunderstanding the #Canadian situation. The simple fact is that the #convoys have nothing to do with #freedom or peaceful #protests.

First off: the #EmergenciesAct is not martial law and is not above the law.

cbc.ca/news/politics/… The protesters are a fringe #rightwing #minority group, partly supported by the American #extreme right.

cbc.ca/news/canada/co…
Feb 10, 2022 • 23 tweets • 10 min read
Here is a hard question for #bitcoin maxis (and plebs):

Why will we end up with 21 million coins in the end?

You think this is easy? Let's see... 🧵 of 21 👇 1. We all know the easy answer: because in its first halving cycle, #bitcoin created 10.5 million coins (50 block subsidy coins * 210,000 blocks), and half that in the next, etc. After a number of cycles, we will have close to 21 million coins.

But I'm asking why, not how.
Feb 7, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
#Bitcoin DPC Model - The Collection
It's about time someone collected all the relevant tweets...

🧵 of 7 1. Initial post with description:
Feb 6, 2022 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
Building the DPC Model, Part IV
Adjusting the projection line to the diminishing effect of #bitcoin's halving cycle

🧵 of 11

Part I:
Part II:
Part III: 1. Latest weekly model update:
DPC model background:
Feb 6, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
Building the DPC Model, Part III
Adjusting the projection line to #bitcoin's daily closing price
🧵 of 6

Part I:
Part II:

Latest weekly model update:
DPC model background: 1. We have seen that the foundation of this model is the power law and the halving cycle. As these two components work with average values, they can sometimes be too slow to adjust to changing circumstances. Therefore, a third component is needed to add agility to the model.
Feb 6, 2022 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
Building the DPC Model, Part II
Modeling #bitcoin's block subsidy (miner reward) halving cycle

A continuation of

🧵 of 14 1. What is the halving cycle, and why is it important for the price of #bitcoin? Let's review this article again before we go any further: investopedia.com/bitcoin-halvin…
Feb 5, 2022 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
How is the projection line of the #bitcoin DPC model built? I'm glad you asked.

For starters, it would be helpful to check the latest update:

For model background, see this post:

Building the DPC Model, Part I - 🧵 8 1. To recap, the DPC model consists of two fundamental components (power law + halving cycle) and two refinements (daily price adjustment + cycle fading):

Context to power law:

Halving cycle explained: investopedia.com/bitcoin-halvin…
Feb 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
#Bitcoin DPC Model weekly update (Feb 5)
- Projected closing price today: $49K
- Next cycle trough: $18K -43% / +76% (5 Jan 2023 ±74 days)
- Next cycle peak: $380K -51% / +106% (Oct 2025 ±7 months) ImageImage Legend
- Dark blue: Daily closing price
- Red: Projected price
- Green: Power law centerline
- Light blue: DPC multiple (actual / projected price)
- Grey: Halvings
- Gold: We are here (equivalent points in previous cycles)
- Dotted grey: Power law slope
Jan 30, 2022 • 20 tweets • 7 min read
The Dynamic Power Cycle (DPC) model of #Bitcoin uses the power law as its base, and adds periodic behaviour resulting from the coin's 4-year block subsidy (miner reward) halving cycle. The implementation of the model now reflects my original vision (conceived in Oct 2021). 🧵 17 1. The red line on the chart above shows how the median price of bitcoin is expected to unfold over the next 3 years. Today's closing price is projected between $30K and $73K (median: $47K). Time uncertainty is ±34 days, and price tolerance is -36%/+56% (at 95% confidence).