Many of the skeptics of possible Russian invasion of Ukraine seem to largely base their confidence in the idea that a large-scale military operation against Ukraine would be devastating to Russia in economic and human costs and, thus, would be foolish for Putin to undertake 🧵
However, this analysis discounts 2 possibilities:
1. Skeptics may be right about the tremendous costs of invasion for Russia but discounting that Putin may be underestimating them. He may believe the military op would be cheap and quick, while economic sanctions not very severe
1. Skeptics may be right about the tremendous costs of invasion for Russia but discounting that Putin may be underestimating them. He may believe the military op would be cheap and quick, while economic sanctions not very severe
And second possibility:
2. That skeptics are wrong and Russian General Staff may have planned a devastating blitzkrieg that can quickly decimate Ukrainian forces and, with utmost brutality and good intelligence, quickly destroy all major resistance to the east of the Dnieper
2. That skeptics are wrong and Russian General Staff may have planned a devastating blitzkrieg that can quickly decimate Ukrainian forces and, with utmost brutality and good intelligence, quickly destroy all major resistance to the east of the Dnieper
And that Russia, with considerable help from China and significant reserves, can withstand economic sanctions & export controls as long as its oil/gas sector is untouched (as seems likely)
The invasion may or may not happen (I personally still think it’s highly likely but I am not fully certain) but it seems to me that skeptics should not discount these 2 possibilities out of hand
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